Thread by @lewis_goodall

So where are we on how many evacuees are left?

Well, although we have evacuated a really significant number of people (a remarkable effort by the military) we can't be sure that as the PM yesterday "the overwhelming majority" of those eligible have been evacuated

Why? Read on

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1430939124685492231

First off, as I say- it has been a remarkable effort and I think PM is right that (prob as a result of how hurried and chaotic it's been) we haven't quite stepped back to see what an extraordinary thing has been accomplished

Internationally (underpinned by US) 100,000+ have...

...been evacuated. MoD says UK has done 12,000 since August 12th. The logistical operation was something to behold. I'm told they were having to have 40 tonnes of water delivered to the Baron Hotel to support UK reprocessing alone. The mind boggles at how complex this has been...

..and how brave those soldiers have been to deliver it.
But the PM made a specifric claim yesterday, that the "overwhelming majority" of those eligible, to whom we owed a debt had already been evacuated. Is that so?

Well it really depends what you mean and I'm struggling...

...to find anyone in government who will tell me exactly what he meant.

IF he meant that the overwhelming majority of those who had places on the ARAP scheme already (and special persons though that's a bit different) have been evacuated that's quite credible. It makes sense...

...that those who have been processed and given places largely should have been evacuated. It's also true that when numbers first started to be circulated for ARAP the estimate was in the low thousands. It seems to have far exceeded that already.

But is that everyone to whom we "owe a debt", might be eligible and is at risk? As a result of pressure from MPs and military the govt only very recently expanded ARAP criteria to include contractors and others who didn't work directly for the UK armed forces but did serve...

...UK efforts (people working for UK companies, organisations etc). But given ARAP was only unveiled in April and, as I say, that that criteria expanded recently, lots of those who might...

...be eligible only applied in *July*. For plenty of these people, applications can still be processing. Govt is still encouraging people to apply, saying the scheme remains open. MPs are talking of having scores and scores of cases each, who have yet to be processed.

In other words given the ARAP process only began so recently (especially with expanded criteria) it is impossible to know exactly how many people may yet be given places and qualify. With this in mind...

...and anecodtally with how many still seem to have outstanding unprocessed cases, it's hard to see how PM can say with any certainty that we've lifted "the overwhelming majority" of those with potential eligiblity and to whom we owe a debt.

I've asked Downing St which of these applies and what exactly the PM meant. They refused to clarify. I asked the MoD. They say that they don't have an exact breakdown on the ARAP numbers processing...

...as it's a fluid situation so they won't tell me either. But in terms of people, to whom we "owe a debt", as the PM said and who would potentially be eligible for ARAP, it remains credible that there remain considerable numbers in Afghanistan. These people's applications may..

...yet be processed and they may yet win the right to come to the UK. But what good it will do them now, if they cannot get to a third country, is a much more open question. In other words yes, the lift has been remarkable. But it seems likely, as the Defence Sec said, that...

...far too many will have been left behind.

Again- is it the “overwhelming majority” out, or not?

https://twitter.com/telegraph/status/1431357698201767937