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Maybe Scrolly?

Fritz (Michael Fritzell)

Follow @Fritz844

30 Aug, 15 tweets, 5 min read

https://twitter.com/justbrosef/status/1432299977200611334

Agree on this... His views seem superficial

https://twitter.com/justbrosef/status/1432299977200611334

The take rate is not high... But to have confidence in the take rate you'd have to believe in the AUM number.

Are we sure cloud is not loss-making due to "national service", similar to Tencent's support of China's police IT infrastructure?

Would rather look at loss-making investments on a case by case basis. The unit economics may or may not work.

Simply cannot ignore the political aspects. Xi and Ma are not on good terms..

Why subtract Amortization? And even if you do, how does he get to 10x EBITA at the time or investment? I'm puzzled.

Why ignore the fact that Jack Ma is seemingly no longer running Alibaba?

Is it obvious that Alibaba will run more smoothly once the government's "redistribution" is over?

Didi's app was banned right after the capital raise. Clearly, loss of data cannot have been the only consideration. Doing so 1 month earlier would have stopped the IPO.

Jack Ma's case is not unique. Many Chinese tech CEOs have "quit" recently: Pinduoduo's, Bytedance's, etc.

Also not sure what the point is mentioning the sexual misconduct case, with a sample size of 1 over total employees of 250,000

In early 2Q21, Alibaba's EV was US$590bn.

EBIT of US$14bn + A of US$10bn = US$24 bn.

EV/EBITA = 590/24 = 24.6x? Doesn't compute.

I can't say that I know Alibaba as well as some of these tech experts. These are just random thoughts I had from reading the document. I genuinely don't understand.

God knows how Russo got to 10x EBITA. If he excludes all loss-making segments and adds back share-based compensation and amortisation then you get to US$30bn in EBITA and EV/EBITA of 20x.

He most likely subtracts value from cloud / media / new projects / investments in EV.

RV Capital values Alibaba on Core Commerce EBITA of US$35 billion.

So most bulls seem to use a SOTP to value the company, based on Alibaba's own allocation of revenues and expenses to its various segments.

RV Capital ignores the fact that many of recent policies come directly from the Communist Party's general office. They do not represent typical industry regulations.

But we'll see what the leadership's true intentions are...

I have to say that the RV Capital letter is more coherent and does try to address key bear arguments.

rvcapital.ch/post/first-hal…

And here is a link to Tom Russo's letter as well where he discusses Alibaba:

moiglobal.com/wp-content/upl…

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More from @Fritz844

Fritz (Michael Fritzell)

@Fritz844

31 Aug

Summary of the book Spotify Inifrån (~Spotify analysed from within):

Seems to me that record labels used to hold the bargaining power, whereas today the digital service providers (Spotify, etc) do.

@SleepwellCap

cc: @SleepwellCap

Read 4 tweets

Fritz (Michael Fritzell)

@Fritz844

19 Aug

Asian tobacco:

5.3 trillion cigarettes are sold each year to 1 billion smokers. Would be unwise to exclude the industry from your universe just because of ESG / unpopularity.

While volumes have dropped globally, retail value has stayed flat. It would have increased was it not for the stronger dollar since 2014.

Volumes are weak in Japan and flattish in Asia EM

Read 8 tweets

Fritz (Michael Fritzell)

@Fritz844

18 Aug

How to brainwash someone:
• Compel the person to make an inconsequential statement
• Dig deeper and ask the person to make other related statements that are increasingly at odds with the person's beliefs
• Constant repetition until the person's self-image has changed

Source: Cialdini's book (1/3):

Source: Cialdini's book (2/3):

Read 4 tweets

Fritz (Michael Fritzell)

@Fritz844

6 Aug

I think a question many of us are asking right now, is how nervous should be we as investors in Chinese equities.

Here is a story that might provide an answer. About how Victor Sassoon moved to China and ultimately fled the country in the 1940s.

// Thread // 👇

Victor Sassoon was a Jewish businessman from the wealthy Sassoon family, originally from Baghdad, Iraq.

The Sassoon family made its fortune in the opium trade, transporting India-made opium to China. But by the turn of the century, it was mostly a textile operation.

Victor was born in 1881 raised in England, where he attended Harrow and Trinity College, Cambridge.

At six feet tall and with broad shoulders, he had been a college swimmer at Cambridge as well as a boxer.

Read 32 tweets

Fritz (Michael Fritzell)

@Fritz844

17 Jul

My Substack isn't so much about journalism.

You should think of me as an "outsourced analyst":
• I provide institutional grade investment ideas that you won't find anywhere else
• You can bounce ideas with me anytime via DM or e-mail

If your portfolio is over $100,000 then the yearly price would be equivalent to <0.3% of the portfolio. With over 20 ideas per year, it should be easy to earn back the cost.

Here is an idea that I published before starting the service:

asiancenturystocks.com/p/deep-dive-20…

I've also started responding to reader questions about their portfolio holdings. So if you have a stock that you want me to take a look at, just let me know and I will spend 2 days on it (subject to a backlog).

Here is one such article (on Nintendo):

asiancenturystocks.com/p/nintendo

Read 7 tweets

Fritz (Michael Fritzell)

@Fritz844

17 Jul

https://twitter.com/sunnig66/status/1412022250937610252

Facebook, Twitter & Google potentially shutting down their operations in Hong Kong.

Probably just a matter of time before Hong Kong adopts an Internet firewall similar to the one they have on the mainland.