Some of those who cheered and excused the US withdrawal from eastern Syria (which was never completed) and were silent with the chaos that unfolded in Oct 2019; have been against the US leaving Afghanistan. They don’t see that the two policies are related?
Don’t they realize that in both instances it’s not just about US withdrawal or who the US partners are but also US influence and the way that US adversaries whether Iran, China, Russia,Turkey, or even US Janus-faced friends like Qatar, move in as the US moves out?
One problem in US policy is that some foreign policies become domestic policies. In the end the withdrawal from Afghanistan and the attempt to leave Syria were motivated by similar instincts and both were done badly. One policy was temporarily reversed.
I assume that the overall affect will be more pressure for the US to leave Iraq and Syria now. And the usual suspects of Russia, Iran, Turkey with China and others in the wings, will be there to try to leverage means to get US out. It’s slow like a steam roller but it’s moving

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More from @sfrantzman

5 Sep
Remember all that mumbo-jumbo about a borderless world and globalization blah blah…well turns out that this is a world is walls and MORE walls everyday, and soon it will all be walls. A divided, totalitarian world is what this century brings. Boxes and more alertness. Bigotry
I had to sit through these ridiculous classes in university where people would talk about their world without borders….yeah it was tried in Schengen, I was there in HU in 2015 when it began to breakdown, also saw the border wall Ankara put up, I saw the one Israel built etc etc
When I was in high school people used to go leave water for migrants crossing from Mexico in Arizona…now there are walls and more walls…I think basically everywhere I’ve been I’ve seen the walls and fences go up. And then the pandemic and more CCTV etc etc
Read 4 tweets
5 Sep
Thread: The whole story of how Syria is positioning itself to be an energy broker for Lebanon, either via Iranian gas shipments and/or via Jordan and Egypt natural gas and electricity has potentially HUGE implications.
The Syrian regime was isolated and under sanctions, but this enables it to play the "good cop" and help energy flow to Lebanon, thus aiding what the US thinks are its interests AND Iran thinks are its interests...Syria suddenly becomes key to Iran and the US, Jordan, Egypt
Syria can use this to get around sanctions and it can work closely with Jordan and Egypt, as it has wanted to do more work also with Iraq (via Albukamal) and Iran...and then to the Gulf, where Riyadh is now working with Iraq, and other Gulf states want Syria back in the fold.
Read 12 tweets
5 Sep
The destruction of the middle class in Lebanon and the ruin of the economy to subvert the country to Hezbollah and Iran is the Iranian “resistance axis” model for the Middle East. There is no country Iran’s proxies got into that didn’t become economic wasteland. Shame
Unfortunately this is the goal. The Tehran goal and its proxies that divert the economy, hijack and mafia off it, then send the profits and grift back to Tehran, they turn countries into hollowed out carcass and then bring in parallel state. They never build anything
if you look at a swath of states that Iran’s regime is involved in over the last decades you won’t find the influence building highways and universities and water infrastructure. You will find that in areas outside the Tehran clutches, such as the Gulf or Jordan, Israel, Turkey.
Read 5 tweets
4 Sep
The reports of an incident near Damman and/or Dhahran, Saudi Arabia this evening, here is the distance from Yemen where there have been growing tensions, escalation;
Read 14 tweets
4 Sep
Some have said he has a resemblance to actor Silvio Dante….but this is apparently him… dawn.com/news/1488568
Read 4 tweets
31 Aug
Israel's IDF: "The Historic "Noble Waters" Naval Exercise Between the Israeli Navy and the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet: The first exercise between the Israeli Navy and the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet was held today (Tuesday) in the Red Sea." (Photos courtesy IDF)
"During the exercise, the two navies practiced a variety of scenarios including defense and rescue operations. The exercise saw the two navies working side by side, learning together and strengthening the connection and familiarity of the two nations' fleets."
"The exercise marks the beginning of joint efforts between the Israeli Navy and the U.S. Fifth Fleet, as part of the transitioning of IDF matters to the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM). This is the first exercise of many planned to take place in the future."
Read 4 tweets

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