Thread by @MarsilioMusing

#MarsiliosTA

See yday for the intro

Interest in pivots started b/c software I was using had them as option to turn on daily & weekly

Then at small fund with a real deal Bloomberg (not cheap) I poked around and saw:

yearly, half-year, quarterly, monthly, weekly, daily

The formula is the same, just the prior period changes

If you are only a long term investor then you can just use yearly, half-year, quarterly if you want to be more active; rest mostly a waste of time

If swing trading then good to know where big levels are b/c touches are rare but important when they happen

but using monthly, weekly & daily a lot

So in charts that follow I have taken off everything except pivots

We'll get to support & resistance soon, for now pivots only

These are essential bull/bear dividing lines and the simplest trend definition

For year - is price above avg of high low & close of previous year?

For the rest - ditto

Also:
YP HP QP MP WP DP (think about it or see Market Glossary on google sheet)

ARRK with addition of half-year pivots (HPs)

Now for this QQQ chart adding quarterly & monthlies too

QP in smaller crosses
MP in small dots

2021 only 1 fractional close below a QP, rest of year above

Last trading days decently below a QP were pre-election jitters (red arrow)

SPY

Buying near monthly pivots throughout 2021, this is very rare to stretch out so long

VIX

Savvy traders know what this is about

Pivots on VIX work great, I consider this top confirmation on stock buys & sells

VIX lift above pivots often in front of indexes
VIX drop back under all or most pivots usually excellent buy point

For additional confirmation on the volatility idea I also like VXX & SVXY (inverse, but just a little different)

And for crypto traders, BTC

4 indicators only - YP HP QP MP

Mostly, a pivot hold or break is definitive. That's how to think about it - a definitive decision by the market / big players

Occasionally, there is chop, like early April (red lines). More likely at major change.

Lastly adding weekly & daily the leveraged & shorter term trading

ETH 4H with WP added in brown crosses

Deceptively simple

If you bought off the low on the year, first 4H close above the WP

& decided to hold until close below WP

E 7/21 near 2K
X 8/16 above 3K

obviously not all moves are like ETH in that Leo rally!

tomorrow I'll add the support & resistance lines that are typically found on most pivot systems

oh did I mention that yet? there are different systems. but showing what I use most of the time. more on that later too.

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