GDP figures for the June Quarter are out. Let’s take a quick look…
* 0.7% increase to the economy across the quarter (slightly higher than expected);
* GDP rose 1.4% over the year
* Household savings ratio is down from 11.6% to 9.7%
After a significant fall in economic activity last year we saw a few quarters of growth, which have gradually decreased as government stimulus was withdrawn from the economy.
The June quarter also shows the impact on the Victorian economy of their lockdown in May/June...
GDP per hour worked declined 1.2% in the quarter, with an overall decline of 0.7% for the past year.
The drop in household savings is being driven mostly by a drop in disposable income due to less hours worked; and a modest increase in spending.
Overall, these figures foreshadow the bad state of the economy once this current quarter is accounted for on Dec 1. The NSW lockdown will run for the full quarter and severely impact the economy. We are already in a functional recession; the Sept quarter figures will tell more...
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Something that has been bothering me throughout the course of this pandemic, which has crystallised for me over the last 48 hours: the models we're using for our public health advice are simplistic.
Let me explain...
I'll start by noting that my first degree was a B.Sc majoring in physical applied mathematics and applied statistics. Essentially, to model the real world using equations of the deterministic and stochastic fashion.
(If you ever thought I came across as a bit of a nerd, now you know why)
@SatPaper Before diving into the article, it’s worth noting a few facts:
* Australia has a population of 25.4m
* GDP is ranked 13th in the world at USD1.3tn (2017)
* GDP per capita we’re ranked 12th ($53,831 pp)
* Burundi earns $293 pp
In other words, we’re a very rich country.
It’s also worth pointing out that Australia was very well positioned - with a rebounding economy and relatively few cases - to line up vaccines early, and get Australia vaccinated.
I wanted to take a moment to look at why the various government rorts are such a concern. I'm talking about the Sports grants and the Carparks and the Community Development grants...
The exact amount of money that goes to make up these various funds is difficult to make out. In part it's because successive Budgets have allocated money into various discretionary funds. In part because it's unclear at times how much money has been allocated or spent.
But first, let's look at how these things are supposed to work.
1. A government department - Infrastructure, for example - will publish a list of grant criteria and invite submissions from the relevant groups. Councils, state governments, community groups etc.
I wanted to dive into this topic to add some context around why the proposed reductions to JobSeeker and JobKeeper make little sense when you take into account the state of the economy as a whole, and the way businesses think...
Let’s start with the economy. We have been experiencing a slowing in the Australian economy for the past six or so years, culminating in the recession coinciding with the economic fallout of our health response to the pandemic. (The recession wasn’t *caused* by the pandemic.)
When you read about Morrison’s gas-fired economic recovery today, remember the following:
* gas is not a low-emission energy source, and is dirtier than coal when methane leakage is factored in;
* AEMO has a roadmap that shows we can replace gas with renewables by 2025…
* renewable energy projects create *more* jobs than a gas project would & and delivers the emission-reduction we need;
* gas-fired power will take years to build and bring online, by which time we could have built out a 100% renewables grid.
* this plan benefits gas producers...
* we already have plenty of gas, and we pay more for it domestically than we export it for. More gas isn’t the answer; it’s to stop letting gas producers screw over local markets.
A lot of people are going to be experiencing remote working for the first time over the coming weeks. So here are some observations/tips for effective collaboration when you aren't all in the same room...
1) You can't rely on non-verbal cues in the same way as you do (consciously or unconsciously) when you're in the same room with other people; 2) Due to latency inherent in the technology, it can be harder for people to identify natural breaks in the discussion and when to speak
3) Don't be afraid to have short conversations - audio or video. It is easy to slide into the habit of communicating in writing with people who aren't with us. 4) Be deliberate in inviting comment from everyone individually instead of a general 'Any questions?'...