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Adam Jentleson 🎈 Profile picture
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2 Sep, 4 tweets, 2 min read
To pass abortion restriction laws, Rs need a trifecta. If Dems do not reform the filibuster and pass voting rights/democracy reforms, they are increasing the chances Rs win a trifecta in 2024. Then, Rs can nuke the filibuster (on any topic) and pass abortion restrictions anyway.
Will abortion be the topic that Republicans nuke the filibuster for? Probably not. Will they nuke it on some other topic, and then pass abortion restrictions via a majority? Probably. Keep in mind that like House Rs, Senate Rs are increasingly radicalized. politico.com/news/2021/08/3…
If you’re banking on Susan Collins to save Dems by stopping Republicans from nuking the filibuster if and when they ever get a trifecta, man, I don’t know what to tell you. The 2024 Senate map is so brutal for Dems that if Rs win a trifecta they probably won’t even need her vote.
This is the pattern: Dems exercise restraint, thinking they are being wise and savvy. Then Republicans roll over them anyway. This is what happened with the Gang of 14, which put Kavanaugh on the bench. And it's what is happening now with the filibuster.

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More from @AJentleson

Adam Jentleson 🎈 Profile picture
26 Jul
The news in this interview is that Warner supports reforming the filibuster for voting rights, which is what matters. But given the Dem impulse to self-flagellate, along with the nagging worry that Republicans will do bad stuff if we use our power, let's unpack this argument.
When Dems changed the rules in 2013, Obama was facing unprecedented obstruction. Prior to Obama, 86 presidential nominees had been filibustered. Obama alone faced 82 filibusters. Take that in: about half of all filibusters against nominees in US history were waged against Obama.
After Dems changed the rules, we pushed through a wave of judicial confirmations. If Dems had not changed the rules, there would be fewer Obama judges on the bench today - which means there would have been more vacancies for Trump and McConnell to fill. washingtonpost.com/blogs/in-the-l…
Read 8 tweets
Adam Jentleson 🎈 Profile picture
23 Jul
The BIF is at a critical moment and Dems have to be careful not to get played. It has spiraled from “we’ll be ready Monday” to “Ok maybe not Monday” to the fact that *transit* remains unresolved in an infrastructure package, to Coons suggesting the BIF drop transit altogether. 1/
First, caveat: it’s (often) darkest before the dawn. These kinds of deals can see a lot of last-minute squabbling before getting finalized. But the size of this group, intended as a show of force, makes it particularly unwieldy. So, this could all be last-minute jockeying. Or…
I have a habit (that I would love to shake one day) of looking at these things through the lens of, what does McConnell want? Ostensibly, he has been in the background. But on a high-profile issue that could define this session, he's probably not actually in the background.
Read 14 tweets
Adam Jentleson 🎈 Profile picture
22 Jul
The question people ask on this and similar polls is: what is Sinema doing? Is this a politically necessary or super=savvy ploy to hold her seat, one that justifies the big sacrifices to Biden's agenda on voting rights and much else? Let's take a look. 1/
If the goal of Sinema's rightward gambit is to be popular in AZ, the results are meh. She comes in at 44% and net +2 approval among Arizonans - an OK number since it's narrowly positive, but lower than Biden (50%, +2) and especially Kelly's net +11.
One clear effect of her rightward lurch is to severely harm her support among Dems. Being barely above 50% with your own party is not a great place to be, especially in our polarized era. Compare her approval among Dems (54%, +13) to Kelly's (85%, +76) and Biden's (94%, +89).
Read 11 tweets
Adam Jentleson 🎈 Profile picture
22 Jul
I don't hate this answer. If President Biden wants to pass voting rights, he'll have to go further. But this is an evolution, and a long way from where he was on the filibuster as recently as last year. That's progress. Whether it will happen fast enough remains to be seen.
The powerful framing by @donlemon and the audience reaction show how far the issue has come. Filibuster reform is re-establishing its place as a civil rights issue. Dems who used to relish defending it, like Biden, are now tentative and defensive. This is how change happens.
Amy Klobuchar was against filibuster reform during the campaign - now she's a champion. There's a tension here, because change can happen but also not happen fast enough, and we have a very limited window to pass voting rights. And it's quite possible it won't happen fast enough.
Read 6 tweets
Adam Jentleson 🎈 Profile picture
28 Jun
Reid had a theory of politics that was different from other Dem leaders. A big part of it was that he gave absolutely zero fucks about what the Beltway crowd thought about him, or whether his actions met their approval. There’s only one other leader in DC of whom that is true.
On the worst days, Reid would get absolutely flayed. I would come in feeling like I’d failed. And he would just laugh. Not like, a laughing-on-the-outside-while-crying-on-the-inside kinda thing. Like: hearing about his bad press at the end of the bad day would *improve* his mood.
Reid grew up in a house made of railroad ties, in the middle of the desert. He learned to swim in a brothel pool (his mom did its laundry). He was self-aware about what he had attained. He kept his family close and cared very little about what anyone else thought.
Read 10 tweets
Adam Jentleson 🎈 Profile picture
23 Jun
It’s worth reflecting on how much ink was spilled over the last few months about how S1 didn’t have 50 votes, and how lots of Dems had reservations beyond Manchin & Sinema. Yet when the vote was called and it was time for senators to go on record, lo and behold! S1 got 50 votes.
Everyone always has complaints. The tricky part is separating the showstoppers from secondary complaints and people just jockeying for position. Worth recalling the DADT repeal vote in 2010 which Reid brought up over the objections of the bill’s own sponsors. Yet, It passed!
Right, but this is the point. I don’t recall reading any stories about how Endless Frontiers was dead because some senators wanted changes and amendments to the bill. This is how it works (as you know): you get on the bill, make changes if you can, then see where thing stand.
Read 7 tweets

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