Nathan Grubaugh Profile picture
Sep 2, 2021 8 tweets 5 min read Read on X
🧬 9/2 Connecticut #SARSCoV2 variant surveillance
@CovidCT | @jacksonlab | @CTDPH | @YaleSPH | @Yalemed

Delta - 99.6% (530 sequenced)
Gamma - 0.4% (2 sequenced)
Mu - 0%
All others - 0%

short 🧵 | Report 👉
covidtrackerct.com/variant-survei…
Delta is split up into 25 sub-lineages - mostly for tracking purposes. These are the top in CT, along with their defining mutations.

B.1.617.2 - 57%
AY.25 - 18% - synonymous mutation
AY.12 - 10% - Spike T791I
AY.3 - 8% - Orf1ab I3731V

Please read on...
(2/8)
Delta sub-lineage AY.12, with the Spike T791I mutation, has received some attention because its 60-80% in Israel, but its not currently increasing globally. Its been mostly hovering between 4-6% since mid-June.

Fig from @DiseaseOutbreak
tinyurl.com/3xvnhvyh
(3/8)
While AY.25 is the most common Delta sub-lineage in CT - it was named purely for tracking purposes. Its defining mutation A27507C is synonymous, meaning that it does not change the virus' proteins. AY.25 is not likely any different than B.1.617.2. Its also <1% globally.
(4/8)
With Delta's dominance, the next major variant may arise from within this clade. Thus, we & others are continuing to track Delta's evolution. Of interest, we've found a few Delta genomes in CT with the E484Q mutation on 3 different lineages. Something to 👀, but not 😱
(5/8)
This week, B.1.621 - that we've been tracking closely in CT for months - was given a greek letter by the WHO - Mu

It has a couple of key mutations - N501Y + E484K. But its prevalence is 📉...
(6/8)

However, the period of concern for Mu in Connecticut - and many other places in the US - is over. It was able to compete with with Alpha & Gamma, but it was no match for Delta 👊
(7/8)
This week I'd like to thank the incredible team at @PangoNetwork for creating and maintaining the lineage system necessary for our surveillance programs. Please routinely check 👇 for updates and information about new lineages.

pango.network/news/
(8/8)

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More from @NathanGrubaugh

Jul 15, 2022
⚡️We developed & performed initial validation on an amplicon-based sequencing protocol (PrimalSeq) for Monkeypox virus (MPXV).

It improves genome coverage compared to metagenomic sequencing, especially at CTs >20.

🧵 1/8 | Protocol 👉
protocols.io/view/monkeypox…
It's based on a design led by @Scalene & @pathogenomenick originally for Zika virus that was adapted for SARS-CoV-2 ("ARTIC protocol") and used by labs around the world.

Our goal was for this to be plug n' play with current SARS-CoV-2 protocols. (2/8)
nature.com/articles/nprot…
The primers were designed using PrimalScheme using a pre-outbreak A.1 clade reference genome (GenBank accession: MT903345).

The scheme comprises a total of 163 primer pairs with an amplicon length ranging between 1597 and 2497 bp (average length of 1977 bp). (3/8)
Read 8 tweets
Jul 14, 2022
🧬July-14 Connecticut #SARSCoV2 variant surveillance
@CovidCT|@CTDPH|@CDC_AMD|@YaleSPH|@Yalemed

📈BA.5 is now the dominant variant in CT (53% from 6/27-7/4), followed by BA.2 (34% & 📉) and BA.4 (11% & 📈)

🚫No detection of BA.2.75

🧵 (1/8) | Report 👉
kphamyale.shinyapps.io/variant_report/
Using a logistic regression of the daily frequencies, we predict that as of today (July-14), BA.5 is probably 80-90% in Connecticut.

BA.4 is still 📈 as it outcompetes BA.2, but will probably start to 📉 in frequency soon after BA.2 is gone. (2/8)
We created a new dashboard to report variant sequencing data in Connecticut. You can still access it through our main website by clicking on the "Read the latest Connecticut report" link. (3/8)

👉 covidtrackerct.com
Read 8 tweets
May 19, 2022
🧬May-19 Connecticut #SARSCoV2 variant surveillance
@CovidCT|@CTDPH|@CDC_AMD|@YaleSPH|@YaleMed

📊Sequencing last 3 weeks
➡️ BA.2.12.1 = 44% (📈 8%)
➡️ BA.2 (other lineages) = 56% (📉 7%)
➡️ BA.4/5 = 0.3% (5 total)

🧵 (1/13) | Report 👉
covidtrackerct.com/variant-survei… Image
Omicron BA.2.12.1 is still 📈 in Connecticut as it is across most of the US. Fitting the % of sequenced cases to a logistic growth curve, we estimate that BA.2.12.1:

1⃣ is ~80% frequency today (May019)
2⃣ surpassed 50% in early May
3⃣ may reach 95% in early/mid June
(2/13) Image
From the same logistic growth curve, we also estimate that BA.2.12.1 is:

➡️ ~24% more transmissible than background (mostly other BA.2 lineages)
➡️ doubling in proportion every ~12 days
(3/13) Image
Read 15 tweets
May 5, 2022
🧬May-5 Connecticut #SARSCoV2 variant surveillance
@CovidCT|@CTDPH|@CDC_AMD|@YaleSPH|@Yalemed

Last 3 weeks
➡️BA.1.1 = 4%
➡️BA.2.12.1 = 23% (may be slowing down)
➡️BA.2 (other lineages) = 73%
➡️BA.4/BA.5 = 0% (might still be coming)

🧵 (1/9) | Report 👉
covidtrackerct.com/variant-survei…
We no longer have TaqPath data from YNHH to track SGTF, but we will use our "VOC" PCR assay that detect SGTF and ORF1a target failures (ORFTF).

BA.1 = SGTF
BA.2 = ORFTF

BA.1 is barely hanging on. (2/9)
👆 here is the "VOC" PCR assay referenced above. (3/9)

journals.plos.org/plosbiology/ar…
Read 9 tweets
Mar 17, 2022
🧬 March-17 Connecticut #SARSCoV2 variant surveillance
@CovidCT | @CTDPH | @CDC_AMD | @YaleSPH | @Yalemed

📊Sequencing data last 3 weeks
BA.1/.1 = 84%📉
BA.2 = 16%📈
Delta = 0%

📊PCR data this week
BA.1/.1 = 41%📉
BA.2 = 59%📈

🧵 (1/7) | Report 👉
covidtrackerct.com/variant-survei…
Based on our TaqPath PCR data (S-gene detected), we estimate that:

➡️ BA.2 is >50% in Southern Connecticut
➡️ At this rate - BA.2 will be 95% by early April
➡️ BA.2 doubling rate = 7.8 days (BA.1 in December = 3-4 days)
➡️ BA.2 ~43% more transmissible than BA.1/.1

(2/7)
Over the past 4 weeks, all of the sequenced S-gene positive samples have been Omicron BA.2 and not Delta. So we trust the 👆 PCR results reflecting the rise in BA.2. (3/7)
Read 8 tweets
Feb 3, 2022
Here are comparative results between 10 TaqPath S-gene detected samples tested by YNHH and with our validated VOC PCR assay. Most with our assay were actually SGTF, and looking at the YNHH results, the S-gene CTs for those were 5-7 higher than N/ORF. (5/16) Image
We are looking into these low level spike amplification samples that should be SGTF to see if this is a lab/TaqPath assay artifact or if there is something about these BA.1 sequences. So far doesn't seem to be sequence-related. Will report (6/16)
Our initial SGTF case definition – ORF/N <30 CT, S “not detected” - was conservative to not over-call BA.1.

We updated it yesterday to include S-gene 5 CTs higher than ORF/N, and compared the results. (7/16) Image
Read 13 tweets

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