Share this page!

Jasmin Mujanović Profile picture
Twitter logo
4 Sep, 35 tweets, 14 min read
Regional media report large crowds already arriving in Cetinje ahead of the contested enthronement of the new Metropolitan of the Serbian Orthodox Church in Montenegro. Minor scuffles observed. Fears of much more significant clashes heading into tomorrow. klix.ba/clanak/2109040…
Montenegrin media also specifically claim large numbers of buses arriving from Belgrade ahead of the enthronement. Concerns are that the Serbian govt is dispatching its proxy thugs and radicals to stir up violence in Montenegro — a NATO member state. gradski.me/foto-autobusi-…
Footage of much more serious clashes now being circulating in and around Cetinje. Separately, a group of pro-Montenegrin protesters has blocked one of the main roads leading into the city. As expected, tensions rising.
Some locals also claiming to have spotted members of the local Night Wolves in the vicinity of the church complex where the enthronement is to take place tomorrow. As noted previously, real concern is about the presence of these organized paramilitary groups w/ ties to SRB & RUS.
Bosnian investigative outlet @IstragaB sharing footage of at least one apparent “defection” by a local officer abandoning his post and joining pro-Montenegrin protestors maintaining a road barricade outside Cetinje. Dramatic scenes, expecting much more tomorrow.
There hasn’t been much language English language coverage of this issue but @BalkanInsight did a good review, and @ljubofil has been translating a lot of Montenegrin observers and analysts as well. Follow them for more insight tomorrow. balkaninsight.com/2021/09/03/ser…
More footage emerging from @IstragaB that appears to show more people (apparently from the area around the capital Podgorica) arriving at the barricades around Cetinje. Hopefully with nightfall the situation will remain calm.
Montenegro’s right-wing Serb nationalist PM is in the capital participating in welcoming ceremonies for the new Serb Orthodox Metropolitan. President Đukanović is in Cetinje w/ protestors. Dueling branches of govt in Montenegro — literally.
Meanwhile, far-right, Serb ultra-nationalist motifs among pro-Serbian Orthodox Church activists in Podgorica. Here the flag of the Nazi collaborator Chetnik movement; active also during the wars in 1990s and involved in some of the worst atrocities in BiH.
Checking in with some of the Serbian tabloids this morning, and it's like something straight out of the 90s. Classic "turbofolk": chauvinism, clericalism + erotica. Image
At risk of sounding alarmist, unless there is a very serious/measured police presence tonight/tmrw, hard to see this situation not escalating. Tensions been rising in 🇲🇪 since new Serb nationalist-clericalist govt took over & it’s clear this weekend is set to be a flashpoint.
For those outside of the region, important to note that 🇲🇪 is a small but very ethnically mixed country. So lots of folks in Serbia, Bosnia, Kosovo, N. Macedonia have family there, myself included. So many across Balkans are watching these scenes w/ great trepidation.
Media outlet @IstragaB reports that there’s over a thousand people at one of the barricades outside Cetinje and that they appear determined to spend the night. Tomorrow will be very tense.
These two posts from @RSE_Balkan really give a sense of the foreboding ahead of tomorrow in Montenegro. A nationalist-clericalist bonanza in Podgorica prepares to force its way into Cetinje, which is blocked by several barricades manned by thousands. Ugly, scary stuff. ImageImage
Long-time Serbian civil society activist Sonja Biserko re: 🇲🇪: “The EU and NATO is being tested…The West doesn’t understand Belgrade’s rhetoric towards its neighbors…This is Belgrade’s offensive which has been going on for three decades.” ba.n1info.com/posts/biserko-… Image
It’s just before 5am in Montenegro and local media are reporting that a large contingent of police is being deployed to clear the barricades btw Podgorica and Cetinje. A few hrs ago the rumor had been the enthronement ceremonies would be canceled. This would suggest otherwise.
The crowds at the barricades outside Cetinje appear to be anticipating the arrival of the police momentarily. Some of the men in the video below can be overheard proposing that they begin torching the tires along the barrier.
One reported clash between police and protestors in Cetinje has already occurred a few mins ago. Footage appears to show police using teargas to disperse crowds, who reportedly responded w/ stones or projectiles of their own. vijesti.me/vijesti/drustv…
On @AJBalkans, a reporter (wearing a gas mask due to free floating tear gas fired by police) notes she has herself seen that some of the people manning the barricades around Cetinje have Molotov cocktails, prepared to repel police. balkans.aljazeera.net/live
A shot of the rather surreal report from the field in Cetinje.
Footage apparently showing a large cordon of police and fire fighters intent on taking down the barricades around Cetinje to permit the enthronement of the new Serbian Orthodox Metropolitan. Keep in mind, there’s reports the crowds at the barricades have Molotovs.
It has to be said, the insistence of the Serbian Orthodox Church to proceed w/ this ceremony in Cetinje - when they can easily do the thing in Podgorica as seen last night - is truly beyond the pale. They’re provoking and inciting and it’s all shaping up to end in the worst way.
The European Movement in Montenegro, a leading civil society org in the country, is calling on the PM & DPM to withdraw police from Cetinje. Quite the contrast to certain “pro-EU” analysts who’ve attempted to shield this govt from criticism in grossly escalating the situation.
Alarming standoff between folks along the barricades and police. Everything I’ve heard over the last 24-48hrs leads me to believe that if the police force this matter, it will end in bloodshed. Which appears to be precisely the point, especially from Belgrade’s perspective.
More footage emerging of plumes of tear gas wafting through Cetinje proper. It seems the police are trying to simultaneously clear crowds from within the city and also dismantle the barricades outside of it. Feels like it’s just as likely to provoke a riot but we’ll see.
I’m also noticing high bot/troll activity viz this issue over the past 2 days. Lots of low follower accounts, created in last few months, string-of-numbers handles peddling Serb nationalist talking points. Plenty of actual users but definitely some astroturfing happening too.
🇲🇪 Deputy PM posts footage which he alleges shows an advisor to the President provoking police. That claim very much open to interpretation, making Abazovic’s appeal for “peace” and “lowering of tensions” quite dubious. Clearly landing as more provocation based on comments.
As anticipated, portions of the barricades outside Centije have been torched, and large crowds appear to be awaiting the next moves of the police.
And here we go. Police are attempting to breach the barricades around Cerinje even amid burning tire fires. This looks like a 19th century battlefield from this angle. One can expect significant injures, no doubt. Ugly, scary stuff.
Folks on the ground speculating that the Metropolitan is actually being flown into the city via helicopters as police are firing tear gas all around Cetinje. If accurate, a truly mad plot.
Meanwhile, the 🇲🇪 PM is slamming attacks on the police, referring to the anti-Metropolitan protestors as terrorists and accusing the President’s DPS party of being in league with organized crime. Hardly the tone of a man who is interested in “peace,” as per his Deputy PM.
Abazovic and Krivokapic, in particular,
appear to be egging this volatile situation on. Given the latter’s long time links to extremist Serb ultranationalists that should be not be surprising but given the scenes that are playing out in Cetinje it is nevertheless striking.
🚨 Footage by @IstragaB featuring the apparent sound of repeated gunfire at one of the barricades outside Cetinje where police and protestors are facing off. The situation is clearly becoming extremely volatile and dangerous.
The apparent use of a MNT military chopper to transport the Metropolitan is going to be a scandal in and of itself. The President is Commander in Chief, was he aware? Did the PM K go behind his back? Was Pres D informed at all? Really stunning stuff.
Police using bulldozers to clear the roads around Cetinje, as fires continue to burn.

It’s past midnight on the West Coast, and I’m going to have to turn in soon. I truly, genuinely hope this day ends w/ minimal bloodshed. This is all already extremely alarming.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Jasmin Mujanović

Jasmin Mujanović Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @JasminMuj

Jasmin Mujanović Profile picture
27 Oct
Appears all pro-BiH parties (!) will present joint elxn reform proposal to international community. Assuming they remain in lockstep, you’d need as few as 6 additional votes to reform constitution. A major development. klix.ba/clanak/2110271…
As noted earlier, this proposal borrows a few solutions from the so-called 2006 April Package, above all the indirect elxn of the presidency. While less than ideal, IMO, a joint platform is critical for ensuring worst sectarian impulses of HDZ/SNSD & their enablers stymied.
This now logically shifts the balance of power. If grand pro-BiH coalition remains united, U.S. and EU would by definition have to pressure HDZ and RS opposition if they are committed to actual reform. That’s a major strategic shift.
Read 4 tweets
Jasmin Mujanović Profile picture
26 Oct
Leaked documents obtained by @SlobodnaBosna appear to show US elxn reform plan for BiH. As expected, the entirety of the initiative is premised on strong-arming and dividing pro-BiH parties. DF’s principled stance on no segregation-lite measures identified as key problem for US. ImageImage
This is, in short, almost exactly the opposite of what BiH needs from Biden admin. Given the waning EU influence in the region, now is the moment to go for bold, genuine liberal-democratic reform; not damp, “deal for deal’s sake” proposals that only embolden centrifugal actors.
In any case, followers of this issue will know that I told you weeks ago that this was exactly the trajectory we were headed down: pressure on pro-BiH actors, accommodating Covic and the HDZ, no meaningful consequences for Dodik. Truly absurd.
Read 4 tweets
Jasmin Mujanović Profile picture
25 Oct
Smart take from @DanielSerwer re: BiH: "The West should not wait until Dodik gets the legislative approval he seeks or acts on his own. Prevention will be far better than cure when it comes to secession. Prevention requires a military move." peacefare.net/2021/10/25/bos…
When it's @DanielSerwer writing like this - whoa!: "RS withdrawal from [BiH's] institutions would leave the country in constitutional and legal limbo...only real options at that point would be reversion to the constitution of the Republic of BiH". peacefare.net/2021/10/25/bos…
Dan's reasoning here is part of why the RS oppo so nervous about Dodik's activities. Any unilateral withdrawal from the DPA would, legally, most jeopardize the RS, not BiH, which only exists as a legal category w/in BiH while the latter has full international character...
Read 5 tweets
Jasmin Mujanović Profile picture
15 Aug
No one is more committed to centering “the West” (& specifically U.S.) than “anti-imperialists”. To them, no one else has true agency in world affairs; only “the empire”. Every other actor is an automaton; no agendas or ideology of their own, only ever reacting to the empire.
Chomsky is probably the single greatest living embodiment of this tendency. He’s written three dozen books or so, but they’re all basically the same txt: “actually, it’s America’s fault.” Hence the Cambodian/Bosnia Genocide denial stuff. Because Pol Pot/Milosevic who?! Empire!
Unsurprisingly then, a core pillar of the modern anti-imperialist project is systematic authoritarian apologetics. Axiomatically, no non-Western/U.S. actor can ever be worse than the Great Evil, so historical revisionism becomes an unavoidable necessity of their politics.
Read 7 tweets
Jasmin Mujanović Profile picture
24 Jun
After the European Parliament explicitly votes down repeated attempts by Croatian MEPs to force inclusion of “constitutive people” concept in 2020 BiH report, CRO PM says says “it would be good” if it was included all the same. Car wreck diplomacy. klix.ba/clanak/2106241…
This should be studied in IR courses the world over; antithesis of the state as rational, self-interested actor. A small state incinerating what little diplomatic weight it has on an initiative (propping up a dissolving sectarian regime in neighboring state) doomed to failure.
“Realists argue that states act in their rational self-interest in the international system and seek to maximize their power…”

Croatia’s BiH policy:
Read 4 tweets
Jasmin Mujanović Profile picture
15 Apr
Wow. BiH media (via SLO) have published leaks of the “dissolution non-paper” but speculate it may, in part, have been drafted by the Hungarians. It envisions near complete partition of BiH btw SRB/CRO but also KOS-ALB unification. vijesti.ba/clanak/532089/…
If it is established that this came from Janša’s cabinet, and/or was written in tandem w/ Budapest, this is a major diplomatic scandal for the EU. Two of its members are gaming-out the partition of a sovereign state & the wholesale reordering of the WB state system. Unacceptable.
This actually much more radical than what Mogherini’s cabinet was pushing viz the KOS-SRB “land swap”, as its proposing partitioning BiH against the will of most of its citizens + Greater ALB, SRB, CRO. A lot more needs to be done here than saying it’s not official EU policy.
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @JasminMuj has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @JasminMuj!

Read all threads by @JasminMuj

:(