Smart take from @DanielSerwer re: BiH: "The West should not wait until Dodik gets the legislative approval he seeks or acts on his own. Prevention will be far better than cure when it comes to secession. Prevention requires a military move." peacefare.net/2021/10/25/bos…
When it's @DanielSerwer writing like this - whoa!: "RS withdrawal from [BiH's] institutions would leave the country in constitutional and legal limbo...only real options at that point would be reversion to the constitution of the Republic of BiH". peacefare.net/2021/10/25/bos…
Dan's reasoning here is part of why the RS oppo so nervous about Dodik's activities. Any unilateral withdrawal from the DPA would, legally, most jeopardize the RS, not BiH, which only exists as a legal category w/in BiH while the latter has full international character...
...and legal mechanism to revert to previous constitutional regime both. In this respect, "continuation" clause of the Dayton constitution is critical bc it means decisions by RBiH parliament remain legally valid. To be clear, what Dan describes is still a chaotic, dangerous... ImageImage
...but it's important, all the same, to game out the legal and political framework of such incidents. And it's clear, as leading officials within RS themselves recognize, dismantling the DPA is an act of legal and political self-immolation for the entity.

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More from @JasminMuj

27 Oct
Appears all pro-BiH parties (!) will present joint elxn reform proposal to international community. Assuming they remain in lockstep, you’d need as few as 6 additional votes to reform constitution. A major development. klix.ba/clanak/2110271…
As noted earlier, this proposal borrows a few solutions from the so-called 2006 April Package, above all the indirect elxn of the presidency. While less than ideal, IMO, a joint platform is critical for ensuring worst sectarian impulses of HDZ/SNSD & their enablers stymied.
This now logically shifts the balance of power. If grand pro-BiH coalition remains united, U.S. and EU would by definition have to pressure HDZ and RS opposition if they are committed to actual reform. That’s a major strategic shift.
Read 4 tweets
26 Oct
Leaked documents obtained by @SlobodnaBosna appear to show US elxn reform plan for BiH. As expected, the entirety of the initiative is premised on strong-arming and dividing pro-BiH parties. DF’s principled stance on no segregation-lite measures identified as key problem for US. ImageImage
This is, in short, almost exactly the opposite of what BiH needs from Biden admin. Given the waning EU influence in the region, now is the moment to go for bold, genuine liberal-democratic reform; not damp, “deal for deal’s sake” proposals that only embolden centrifugal actors.
In any case, followers of this issue will know that I told you weeks ago that this was exactly the trajectory we were headed down: pressure on pro-BiH actors, accommodating Covic and the HDZ, no meaningful consequences for Dodik. Truly absurd.
Read 4 tweets
4 Sep
Regional media report large crowds already arriving in Cetinje ahead of the contested enthronement of the new Metropolitan of the Serbian Orthodox Church in Montenegro. Minor scuffles observed. Fears of much more significant clashes heading into tomorrow. klix.ba/clanak/2109040…
Montenegrin media also specifically claim large numbers of buses arriving from Belgrade ahead of the enthronement. Concerns are that the Serbian govt is dispatching its proxy thugs and radicals to stir up violence in Montenegro — a NATO member state. gradski.me/foto-autobusi-…
Footage of much more serious clashes now being circulating in and around Cetinje. Separately, a group of pro-Montenegrin protesters has blocked one of the main roads leading into the city. As expected, tensions rising.
Read 35 tweets
15 Aug
No one is more committed to centering “the West” (& specifically U.S.) than “anti-imperialists”. To them, no one else has true agency in world affairs; only “the empire”. Every other actor is an automaton; no agendas or ideology of their own, only ever reacting to the empire.
Chomsky is probably the single greatest living embodiment of this tendency. He’s written three dozen books or so, but they’re all basically the same txt: “actually, it’s America’s fault.” Hence the Cambodian/Bosnia Genocide denial stuff. Because Pol Pot/Milosevic who?! Empire!
Unsurprisingly then, a core pillar of the modern anti-imperialist project is systematic authoritarian apologetics. Axiomatically, no non-Western/U.S. actor can ever be worse than the Great Evil, so historical revisionism becomes an unavoidable necessity of their politics.
Read 7 tweets
24 Jun
After the European Parliament explicitly votes down repeated attempts by Croatian MEPs to force inclusion of “constitutive people” concept in 2020 BiH report, CRO PM says says “it would be good” if it was included all the same. Car wreck diplomacy. klix.ba/clanak/2106241…
This should be studied in IR courses the world over; antithesis of the state as rational, self-interested actor. A small state incinerating what little diplomatic weight it has on an initiative (propping up a dissolving sectarian regime in neighboring state) doomed to failure.
“Realists argue that states act in their rational self-interest in the international system and seek to maximize their power…”

Croatia’s BiH policy:
Read 4 tweets
15 Apr
Wow. BiH media (via SLO) have published leaks of the “dissolution non-paper” but speculate it may, in part, have been drafted by the Hungarians. It envisions near complete partition of BiH btw SRB/CRO but also KOS-ALB unification. vijesti.ba/clanak/532089/…
If it is established that this came from Janša’s cabinet, and/or was written in tandem w/ Budapest, this is a major diplomatic scandal for the EU. Two of its members are gaming-out the partition of a sovereign state & the wholesale reordering of the WB state system. Unacceptable.
This actually much more radical than what Mogherini’s cabinet was pushing viz the KOS-SRB “land swap”, as its proposing partitioning BiH against the will of most of its citizens + Greater ALB, SRB, CRO. A lot more needs to be done here than saying it’s not official EU policy.
Read 4 tweets

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