Thread by @Mij_Europe

So UK-EU relations are set to come back into focus in a big way in Sept. Not bc the end of month deadline - that should be ignored. But bc the gaps between the two on the Protocol are so huge, it's unclear if a compromise can be found without serious drama in between
1/

On timing: @EU_Commission proposals to HMG command paper will need to be socialised with EU capitals & @Europarl_EN. So the parameters of what's poss on EU side will only be clear towards the end of the month. That makes an extension to grace periods almost inevitable
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This won't be the “standstill” @DavidGHFrost is demanding. EU officials are clear that can only happen if HMG dynamically aligns to EU rulebook in intervening period. This is more about giving space for talks to succeed. Can they?
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There is definitely a willingness among member states to look at customs & SPS solutions for NI-only and specific features of GB-NI trade. As long as they don't affect integrity of Single Market. This is not a macro re-negotiation, but a tweak at margins - where necessary 4/

So Frost & Co will have to temper their demands. For eg, getting rid of the ECJ's role in policing the Protocol is not a red line for the EU - it's simply IMPOSSIBLE. It would effectively mean removing NI from the CU & SM. As we know, that ain't ever gonna happen
5/

Lurking in background is Govt's threat to trigger Art 16. Senior UK officials tell me @BorisJohnson was ready to do this in July, but was convinced to give G7 & negotiations one last push. From implicit threats, Frost is now also explicit that Art 16 threshold has been met
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But A16 only says some obligations can be suspended, not which ones or how. The other party can then retaliate. Per Art 7, 1 month of talks is needed before measures can be taken. Bottom line: it wd dramatically worsen legal & political uncertainty - without resolving anything
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Can a compromise be found? At a minimum, it's going to be a very long, hard slog. Almost like another mini-Brexit. Was this always Govt plan? Perhaps. Imperative in 2019 was to get Brexit done - at any price. Now HMG wants to revisit & re negotiate all the gory details
ENDS