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6 Sep, 4 tweets, 2 min read
REPLAY: Knox County school board discusses masks, absences and contact tracing

The special meeting comes amid a startling rise in cases this week. The school district shattered previous records of COVID-19 cases in schools.

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usatoday.com/story/news/edu…
"Knox County Schools released its first COVID-19 case data on Monday after two weeks of school. At the time, counts were similar to December 2020. But the number of infections continues to grow and reached a new record Friday with 905 cases. Of those, 807 are students.

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"Only 85.8% of students were present at school on Thursday, district spokeswoman Carly Harrington said in an email to Knox News.

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Some Knox County Schools parents planning a 'sick out' to up the pressure on COVID-19 safety

4/
azcentral.com/story/news/edu… via @azcentral

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More from @yaneerbaryam

Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
14 Sep
11% of Israeli kids who got virus now suffer from 'long COVID' - study | The Times of Israel

timesofisrael.com/more-than-10-o…
"Of those who reported long-term symptoms, 1.8% of children under 12 and 4.6% of those aged 12 to 18 were still suffering from symptoms six months after the illness, the survey found, noting that the probability increased with age.

2/
"Among those 12 to 18, chances of long COVID were higher among those who had coronavirus symptoms. However, researchers also found long COVID even among 3.5% of the children who were asymptomatic when they tested positive.

3/
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
13 Sep
"Living with the virus"

Restaurants Close Dining Rooms Again as Delta-Driven Infections Spread

“I’m going to stay home for a while”said..who was eating out and traveling for roughly four months after she was vaccinated, but has since stopped.

1/
 wsj.com/articles/delta…
"The company is asking franchisees in areas with high concentrations of Covid-19 cases to only offer to-go sales"

“Consumers have become more concerned as the latest outbreak has worsened,” McDonald’s said... “We must re-establish and reaffirm our commitment to safety.

2/
Reminder: Green zone elimination is the Exit strategy. It is hard but not harder than what we are doing now. It can be done.

3/
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
11 Sep
Different tools to fight covid have distinct strengths. Vaccines are a powerful tool and should be widely promoted. Beyond the Swiss cheese model are nonlinear interactions that strengthen our ability to win when multiple tools are used together.

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Relying only on vaccines isn't providing us a sufficient defence. Without additional actions, the virus has advantage due to time allowed for mutation. Countries should combine vaccination campaigns with non-pharmaceutical interventions to eliminate SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

2/
Pandemic 2.0 – Where do we go from here? The Delta variant and the young.

Gunhild Nyborg | Andrew Ewing | Yaneer Bar-Yam | Cécile Philippe | Matthias F. Schneider | Shu-Ti Chiou | Sunil Raina | Bengt Nordén | Sigurd Bergmann

3/
Read 10 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
10 Sep
There are some that haven't understood the science behind the selection of vaccine evading variants.

This may help:

This is the same as what happens in your body if you only take part of the antibiotics prescribed for an infection --- antibiotic resistant strains arise.

1/
This is also the reason for the appearance of antibiotic resistant pathogens. When we use antibiotics to inhibit but not eliminate a pathogen, the pathogen evolves to become resistant to that antibiotic.

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A technical term used for this discussion is "imperfect vaccines" i.e. vaccines that don't completely stop infection.

Looking in google scholar gives many papers on this subject

3/
scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&…
Read 13 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
9 Sep
When the virus is circulating in a vaccinated population, variants that are more rapidly transmitting are selected for --- those are vaccine evading variants.

By vaccinating without shutting down transmission we are promoting vaccine evading variants.
For those who want to take a look at the math of evolution, take a look at my textbook, Chapter 6. Downloadable from

necsi.edu/dynamics-of-co…
Mass vaccination in a population causes a bias in the fitness landscape---the fitness of each of the variants is different. Those that are vaccine evading have a fitness advantage, i.e. replicate faster than those that don't.
Read 11 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
6 Sep
Will coronavirus really evolve to become less deadly?

Answer: No

For the reasons described in this paper and others.

theconversation.com/will-coronavir… via @ConversationUK
The question in this analysis: Is a more deadly variant more or less transmissible. More transmissible ones will dominate, i.e. evolution will favor it.

COVID had multiple variants with higher viral load—more transmissible and more lethal/harmful.

2/
d1wqtxts1xzle7.cloudfront.net/50789482/Coevo…
Key example: Does a more lethal variant kill its host faster and dying stops transmission. That would lead to lower transmissibility for more lethal variants.

For COVID this isn't true. Infection happens early in the infectious period just before and after symptoms start.
Read 8 tweets

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