I would normally never send anyone to Lesswrong. com, but someone posted about Sam Altman remarks about OpenAI’s plans for GPT-4, and I have thoughts lesswrong.com/posts/aihztgJr… 1/7
GPT-4 will focus on coding (ala Codex). It will not be much bigger than GPT-3. The focus will instead be "line of sight" planning. Which is not really planning, it just means bigger context windows and output windows. 2/7
A long enough output window looks like lookahead, but is still just applying historical patterns to new problems. Dare I say "case based reasoning"? 3/7
"GPT-5 might be able to pass the Turing test. But probably not worth the effort." Perhaps, but only because the Turing Test is a really bad test. Anyway, chatbots have been "beating" the Turing Test for the last 10 years. It's not important. 4/7
Other notes: focus on making language models tell the truth and avoid "out of bound topics". This is the controllability problem. Still a problem. I have a lot of thoughts on how to improve controllability, too many to share right now. 5/7
DALL-E will be publicly released. 6/7
A bunch of AGI mumbo-jumbo, but one real concession: AGI will likely require new algorithmic breakthroughs that haven't happened yet, instead of just building bigger models. This is my belief: we don't yet have a workable theory on how to reach AGI. 7/7
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