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Joe Mayes

6 Sep, 9 tweets, 3 min read

The `Brexit first' philosophy of Boris Johnson's government is colliding with a supply crisis 1/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

A shortage of workers across sectors - from drivers to engineers to abattoir staff - is leading to gaps on shelves and business disruption. Brexit and Covid are both to blame... 2/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

And yet the government is resisting calls for temporary visas for EU nationals to plug the labour market shortfall. Why? The politics and economics of Brexit are at play 3/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@julianHjessop

Politically, allowing the visas would be a tacit admission of the benefits of free movement under EU membership. `That might look like a lack of confidence in Brexit,' says @julianHjessop 4/

There's also an economic rationale - the govt may worry that allowing in cheaper EU labour (even if temporarily) would dissuade firms from boosting domestic pay and improving working conditions 5/

The govt's repeated rejection of EU visas as a fix is causing exasperation in industry. Training workers to fill gaps in the labour market takes time, yet the crunch is being felt now. Indeed, CBI say labour shortages could last 2 yrs without action 6/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@the_brc

Might Johnson change tack? Pressure is only likely to grow, as supply chains come under further strain in the big build-up to Christmas. There's already signs of rising prices in shops, per latest @the_brc data 7/ brc.org.uk/news/corporate…

Interesting empirical point to watch -- even if wages do rise for domestic workers in some sectors due to labour shortages, do *real* wages actually rise? Or do price increases in shops due to higher wage costs/other supply chain problems outweigh the gains? 8/

In sum, the U.K. is going through a fascinating and bumpy economic transition post-Brexit. For now, Britain is unwilling to turn to the EU to ease the ride ends// bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

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More from @Joe_Mayes

Joe Mayes

@Joe_Mayes

14 Sep

Breaking: U.K. delays Brexit border checks on EU food amid supply shortages 1/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

A new wave of Brexit bureaucracy was due to hit the food supply chain in the coming months - just as it wrestles with labour shortages and the fallout of the pandemic 2/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Specifically, EU food imports faced physical customs inspections from January 2022. And from October 2021, EU food imports needed export health certificates - a costly document, and there's a shortage of vets to provide them 3/

Read 9 tweets

Joe Mayes

@Joe_Mayes

21 Jul

So what has the U.K. government proposed to fix Brexit problems in Northern Ireland? An explainer... 1/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Remember, the current system sees goods crossing from GB to NI face customs checks as if they are entering the EU. To avoid the land border on the island of Ireland, it was put in the Irish Sea 2/

Under the U.K.'s new proposal, this would be replaced by an honesty-style system. GB companies label their goods `for NI' if they're destined for NI. These goods would then not face customs checks 3/

Read 11 tweets

Joe Mayes

@Joe_Mayes

20 Jul

A worsening driver shortage in the U.K. - exacerbated by Brexit and the pandemic - is increasing costs for businesses and leading to empty shelves 1/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Multiple factors have come to a head to cause the shortage, including:
- EU drivers returning home post-Brexit
- Brexit customs delays tying up vehicles for longer
- Covid disrupting tests for new drivers, creating a big backlog waiting to get licences 2/

So what's happening on the ground? Supermarkets are beginning to see gaps in their supplies. Fresh produce is going to waste because it's not being collected. And businesses face a daily struggle and higher costs to get their goods to market 3/

Read 8 tweets

Joe Mayes

@Joe_Mayes

28 Jun

New: a fresh Brexit spat over fish has been averted, as Jersey extends a transition period for French vessels in its waters 1/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

You’ll remember the remarkable scenes in May, when France and Britain sent naval ships to the island after French fishermen threatened a blockade 2/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Well a July 1 deadline was approaching, after which new licensing restrictions would’ve hit French boats. As locals predicted at the time, the French would be back… 3/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Read 4 tweets

Joe Mayes

@Joe_Mayes

22 Jun

New: Joining CPTPP would boost Britain's GDP by 0.08% over 15 years compared to its 2019 level, government says in scoping assessment 1/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

The government has finally published a long-awaited economic assessment of joining the CPTPP, an 11-nation pact which includes the likes of Australia, US, Japan, Canada and New Zealand 2/ assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

You'll remember the scoping assessment of the UK-Australia trade deal famously said it would boost GDP by 0.02% over the long run -- while quitting the EU is deemed due to leave Britain's economy 4% smaller 3/ obr.uk/box/impact-of-…

Read 7 tweets

Joe Mayes

@Joe_Mayes

21 Jun

Safeguards in the UK-Australia trade deal aren't enough to protect British farmers, the NFU warns 1/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@EmilyThornberry

The main controversy around the Australia trade deal is the prospect of British farmers being undercut by cheaper Australian meat produced on larger farms, which may use production methods and practices banned in the U.K., as @EmilyThornberry argued here 2/

@trussliz

Govt says it is protecting farmers by capping meat imports from Australia e.g. allowing only 35,000 tonnes of beef in tariff-free, with the cap gradually falling away over time. @trussliz said this cap represents 15% of all UK beef imports from the EU 3/