Koshiek Karan Profile picture
Sep 7, 2021 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
how does he do it?
this man's tweets have preceded a price drop 8 out of 8 times perfectly

that's better hit rate than Mia Khalifa, Meek Mill & Soulja Boy
you vs. the guy she told you not to worry about
update 😭😭😭
just look at this volatility...
now if you're holding a heavily leveraged position out here you're getting rinsed 💦💦💦

won't even hit a margin warning, straight clean out
@djsbu can tell your intentions come from a good place. These streets desperately need more educational content on crypto ++ major help getting their hustles on lock

If you ever want to jump on a Space to tag team & talk crypto hmu. We have the same end goal 💪🏽💪🏽

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More from @iamkoshiek

Jun 28
here's why this headline is inflammatory, polarizing & fuels divisive rhetoric

also - it's blatantly misleading & inaccurate [thread] Image
let's unpiece this - line by line

1. 1% = rank TANKING
2. it's BAD because it's the lowest close since two weeks ago
3. WORST performance against emerging market currencies
4. bond yields JUMPED 12 basis points in three weeks

sounds terrifying right? it actually isn't Image
SA government bonds are among the most liquid & traded developing market fixed income securities globally

the South African rand (like many emerging market currencies) is also pretty volatile

should a 1% daily move spook anyone? absolutely not

it's actually pretty normal
Read 13 tweets
Jun 20
many private companies thrive off government failures, social instability & profit handsomely from elevated risk

(private security, private healthcare, backup electricity, etc)

people pay twice for services

a huge benefit of a functioning country is eliminating the redundancy
desperation also opens the door to exploitation

take home solar financing for instance

when you run the hard numbers the effective return across many providers is astronomical — it’s often a terrible financing deal for the end user
you can’t sell a solution if there isn’t a problem

people who profit from problems - like fund managers who make money from offshore capital or your local solar panel guy will ALWAYS be negative on any turnaround

what’s good for a country isn’t always what’s good for business
Read 4 tweets
May 17
the secrets behind Aviator ✈️💰 [thread]
over the years I've printed decent racks across stocks, crypto, exotic derivatives, football, pro wrestling, poker, blackjack & even predicting Oscar winners

very important - there's a MASSIVE difference between investing, trading & outright gambling

Aviator = outright gambling
you may be familiar playing Aviator on the Betway platform but it's not a game engineered by Betway

Aviator is a game offered internationally by a global i-Gaming company Spribe founded in 2008 & their success has been meteoric

Aviator is now an official partner to the UFC Image
Read 14 tweets
Apr 10
WeBuyCars will IPO at R18.75 tomorrow 🏎️🏎️

Personally, I'm staying away 🚶‍♀️🚶‍♀️

- listing valuation multiples are on the rich side (esp for a 5% margin business), some optimism baked into this price**
- Transaction Capital using a meaty chunk of proceeds to settle their own debt (short term credit facilities) is a rough place to be
- not entirely convinced on the SA macro industry growth outlook story being positioned here

** I really love IPOs where a bit of money is left on the table... this doesn't look or feel like one of them 📈📈
there's an entirely separate conversation around listings by private equity & how much juice gets extracted before assets eventually get to market... you're often pretty late to the party as a retail investor

another convo is the @JSE_Group being starved of high quality IPOs
if you hold Transaction Capital stock, the TCP price should fall by the relative value contribution of WeBuyCars

(the maths doesn't always work out 100%**)

**shout-out naspers/ prosus sum of the parts ruining every investment banking analyst's life in 2019)
Read 7 tweets
Jan 22
seeing Nelson Mandela's belongings auctioned off echoes an an ancient Chinese proverb on wealth

富不过三代 (fu bu guo san dai) - "wealth does not last beyond three generations"

the first generation creates it
the second generation preserves it
the third generation squanders it
"shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in three generations"

the Williams group (a wealth consultancy) researched 3,200 wealthy families over a 20 year period

by the second generation, 70% of their wealth evaporated
by the third generation, 90% lost nearly all their wealth
here's what I've learnt as an investment banker: creating value needs ingredients

ingredients = capital, relationships, skills, an edge, hard work, opportunity, sheer luck, time, etc

baking those ingredients = wealth

wealth transfer doesn't always pass on the ingredients
Read 8 tweets
Dec 8, 2023
I was still a newly minted investment banking associate in New York learning the finance game

one of the MDs dropped this wisdom bomb:

“remember this, the working class PAY to be seen & heard… the rich PAY to be invisible”

this still sticks with me & you see it A LOT!!
“old money whispers & new money shouts”

except old money does flex… they just flex different

it’s art collections, philanthropy, family crests, elite schools, concierges, remote ski trip locations & inaccessible experiences

they’re seen & noticed by people in their cohort
accessible luxury brands know how much the middle class are willing to pay to be seen & heard

all they need to do is convince people that their brand/ product is a statement of prestige & success

of course the game never ends… you need to keep “proving” yourself
Read 9 tweets

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