Thread by @ggreenwald

There is much tension today in Brazil: Independence Day (July 4 equivalent). Bolsonaro, with increasingly bleak polling, has devoted great energy to engineering a massive nationwide protest in his favor, while domestic/international press warn of violence & anti-democratic acts.

It's all way too complex for tweets -- I'll do some explanatory reporting on it at the end of the day -- but there are many factors, including what is Bolsonaro's main fear: numerous & very serious corruption investigations into his somehow-extremely-rich politician-sons.

Those concerned about violence and this being the first step toward some kind of coup insist that large parts of the military police & even military are willing to use violence to keep him in power, along with large bands of armed fanatics still loyal to him. Very speculative.

There are, as I've always said, many big differences between Trump & Bolsonaro, the most important being how much older and more stable are US democratic institutions. But pro-democracy centers have been very resilient and defiant against Bolsonaro: stronger than many thought.

One odd backdrop to all this: over the last 2 years, a Supreme Court justice has been ordering pro-Bolsonaro bloggers, activists, and politicians imprisoned or kicked off the internet, fueling much rage. Some were clearly plotting coups but other cases raised censorship concerns.

Protesting is a right everyone has. Hopefully, today will be largely peaceful and the increasingly vitriolic political conflicts in Brazil will be resolved the way they should be: through the 2022 election. But Brazil's democracy is only 35 years old, so it's all precarious.

"Either the head of [the Brazilian Supreme Court] limits the power [of this judge] or it will suffer what we don't want" --

Brazil's President @JairBolsonaro, speaking today to supporters in Brasilia and issuing what is clearly a threat based on this judge's perceived abuses.

Brazil's center-right, neoliberal party that had long been PT's adversary (lost 4 straight elections to them), then was replaced by Bolsonaro on the right, says they're convening an emergency meeting about impeachment given Bolsonaro's threat to the Court

https://twitter.com/PSDBoficial/status/1435258168708325377

Tensions rising: a mainstream Brazilian outlet, @Metropoles, reports the Federal Police detained Trump's long-time adviser Jason Miller when he arrived in Brasilia today, on orders of the Supreme Court, questioned about plotting anti-democratic acts:

https://twitter.com/igorgadelham/status/1435252188486455296

(Just a correction: Miller was detained at the airport this morning when trying to leave from Brasilia back to the US, not when he arrived in Brazil).

After implicitly threatening the Brazilian Supreme Court earlier today in Brasilia, Bolsonaro flew to São Paulo and vowed to his supporters to disobey orders from one particular judge.

He repeated his line: my only options are prison, death or victory- and I'm not going to jail.

The tumultuous events in Brazil today are highly consequential but also complex. Avoid reductive narratives from either the Brazilian or international press. The context to all this is vital. Some journalists are providing it.

I'll have a report up tonight once the day unfolds.

After Bolsonaro threatened the Supreme Court today, then vowed to disobey Court orders:

* Supreme Court justices now meeting to determine response

* São Paulo governor, others, demand impeachment for the first time.

* Bolsonaro says: I'll only leave the presidency dead.