A couple of people have asked me for my updated thoughts on $GFL $GFL.TO:
It's cheap AGAIN.
It's cheap AGAIN.
Looking out to 2022-2023 when synergies are fully extracted, I estimate GFL can generate in the neighborhood of ~$800m of FCF
800m is on the current base of business... now we have to give credit to organic:
4.5% topline at 35 incremental margin yields an additional 100m of FCF
= $900m of FCF
4.5% topline at 35 incremental margin yields an additional 100m of FCF
= $900m of FCF
900m is the current base + 2021,2022,2023 organic, but to be fair, we must add M&A:
The company has guided an additional $55-80m of FCF added from M&A.
900m + 67.5= $967.5m of FCF run rate exit 2023
The company has guided an additional $55-80m of FCF added from M&A.
900m + 67.5= $967.5m of FCF run rate exit 2023
$WCN trades at a 30x FCF. Now I would be happy 😊 if $GFL reached that level, even only 25x would be a good return. And that multiple for a great business like GFL is cheap! At 25x GFL would be worth $75 per share or generate a 40% irr through year-end 2023.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
