1) PCR Pos% rate at 13.64% 2) Cases plummet - Labor Day (LD) 3) Hospitalizations decline. Some LD but trends are lower - period 3) Fatality breakdown on 128 fatalities - LD. Prepare for big #s rest of week
* PCR Pos% at 13.64. Looks great
* 14DMA Case Rate of Decline at 5.6%
* Hospitalizations Rate of Decline at 0.5%
* Rt at 0.85
* No testing update today, see tweet from earlier today
* Its ovah, even with Labor Day
2/n .
9/7 Cases
* 6.0K Cases vs 22.7K last Tues
* Case 7DMA WoW declines 10%
* Peak is 9/5
* Labor Day reporting. Tomorrow should be a big number of cases reported. Will be watching to see if 7DMA can recover from this far a drop to set new peak. Its a tough week of comps
3/n .
9/7 Hospitalizations
* -46 to 13499. Last Tues was +210
* Single Day Peak is 8/25 - 13932
* 7DMA RoG at 0.5%
* Likely some Labor Day baked in here, but the trends were down well before. I think 8/25 holds as high
* Never went higher than 22% of beds used for C19
4/n .
9/7 - Hosp Covid Admits
Another good day across the board. Hospital Admits are dropping strongly. We will watch for tomorrow and Thursday to see if this recovers as part of Labor Day or not. They've been dropping for 2 weeks so likely not a whole lot of rebound
5/n .
9/7 Fatalities Part 1 of 2:
* Primer in 8/n
* 2021 thru 8/16, 2020 thru 7/16, waves 13 months apart
* Fatalities thru these dates:
* 2020- 4613, 232 7DMA
* 2021- 3497, 170 7DMA
* Because Hosps peaked much higher than Summer 2020, we start looking at Winter 2020
6/n .
9/7 Fatalities Part 1 of 2:
* 128 Reported. -103 vs LW. Labor Day
* Going to be 4 rough days of reporting this week, starting tomorrow. Get ready. In the 300-375 per day range
* Will actual Fatalities reach 375 a day like Winter 2020? Doesn't appear.
* All the indicators say this is over
* Cases & Fatalities should rebound from Labor Day tomorrow. We will see if same holds for Hosps
* This summer wave continues to be 25% less lethal than last thru Day 58. CFR difference will be well north of 25%
9/end
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* Continued strengthening of traffic numbers the past month
* Within a few points of clawing all the way back
* Forecasting through the Thanksgiving Holiday
* Total number of passengers who have flown in the past 30 days is 96.3% of 2019. In the past 3 months its 94.6%
* You can see it in the 7DMA % vs 2019 chart, the blue line has been all over that 95% line since Labor Day
* Today's 7DMA is 97.45%
2/n
11/21 Airlines Page 3
* As I've stated before, comparisons between 2019 & 2022 are tricky. Because Holidays shift dates and/or days every year. 2020 was a leap year, so +2 days right there
* These 2 charts compare 1) #s as TSA reports them & 2) #s as reported historically
* Positive tests continue their slow rise into the mid 2K per day range
* Hospitalization leading indicators showing a very gentle uptick. Spring mini-bump may be here
* C19 Fatalities in April 2022 will be an all time low
5/16 - Testing takes ~10 days for a date to be ~90% in.
As of 5/6:
* Positivity rate @ 6.39%
* 2188 positive tests 7DMA, rising to mid 2Ks in next 5-7 days. At height of Omicron that number was 80K
* Testing 7DMA running a consistent historically low 34K per day.
2/n
5/16 - Testing & Cases
* 34K tests per day is 14% of what TX was receiving at the height of Omicron
* Interesting to see the interaction of end of school with mild spread. Will testing rise?
* Batch reported cases in line with testing, now at 2.5K per day & slowly rising
* 3 Weeks since federal mask mandate was struck down
* 8 straight weeks of 2022 7DMA traffic being north of 2 million and also being between 87-91% of 2019 traffic
* Demand is north of 100% of 2019, but supply still isn't there
The 7 day moving avg continues in this consistent narrow band, currently sitting at 2.10 Million passengers per day the past 7 days, and at 89% of 2019 numbers.
Expect these numbers to rise significantly through Memorial Day.
2/n
5/11 Airlines Page 3
Long term traffic numbers are strong - the 70 day Moving Avg is at an all time C19 high of 2.09M and slowly rising - basically inline with the 7 day average.
The industry is basically back to what it was pre-covid, just a little smaller.
* Slowly rising positivity rate plus falling testing = same number of positive tests er'e day
* Hospitalizations continue to set new all time lows
* A couple of weird numbers to explain
4/3 - Testing takes ~10 days for a date to be ~90% in.
* 2 tweets on testing today
As of 3/31:
* Up to 2.48% from 2.14% last week
* Day number 24 below the previous all time low of 2.60% set on 6/7/21
* So its slowly climbing but because fewer people are getting tested...
2/n
4/3 - Testing Part 2
* The number of total positive tests has been running right between 1100 and 1150 per day for the past 2 weeks.
* Outside of 4th of July 2021 and Winter Freeze 2021, we've never seen PCR testing this low. Nobody is getting tested right now.
* A brief mid-week update on numbers through yesterday
* Pos% mini-bump fizzling out. Testing approaching record lows
* Hospitalizations continue setting record lows
* a 4 tweet thread today to go through the numbers
As of 3/28:
* Minibump up to 2.42%. Upcoming incomplete days show slowing growth
* Testing falls to 47K a day which approaches post-testing industrial complex lows of 43K in Jun 2021. Fewer people getting tested.
* Positive tests super flat at ~1150 per day
2/n
4/7 - Hospitalizations
* Covid Admissions 7DMA at new record low of 134/day, and still declining slightly
* Hospital Census 7DMA under 1000 for the first time ever
* Census % beds used by C19 at new low of 1.5%
* ICU Census approaches 200. Never saw below 400 before now