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Joseph Dempsey Profile picture
@JosephHDempsey
Sep 8, 2021 • 11 tweets • 8 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
I hate to rain on anyone's #NorthKorea 9th Sept military parade expectations but...

(a short thread)

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
#NorthKorea military parades are typically reserved for significant (+5/10 year) anniversaries of significant events in its relatively short history.

So a 9 Sept 2021 parade for 'only' the the 73rd anniversary of the "Foundation of the Republic" doesn't quite fit

However...
A decade ago #NorthKorea made an exception with a military parade for the 63rd "Foundation of the Republic" anniversary

63rd bit.ly/3l6xnR8 2011

This was one of Kim Jong Il last appearance, having missed the 2008 (60th) parade amid speculation over failing health.
DO NOT EXPECT BALLISTIC MISSILES!

#NorthKorea does not historically parade any for 9th Sept anniversary:

70th bit.ly/3l3maRx 2018
65th bit.ly/2MhL6Bi 2013
60th bit.ly/2MikrEz 2008
55th bit.ly/2Qk5GnR 2003
50th bit.ly/2x1Ti30 1998
For reference here is my @IISS_org blog on the 'missing' missiles from the 9 Sept 2018 parade iiss.org/blogs/military…
However #NorthKorea has a habit of surprising us!

Even without ballistic missiles on show, other significant conventional military capabilities and developments may still debut as they did in 2018
So 10 years on another exception to the rule with a military parade on the 73rd "Foundation of the Republic" anniversary

But will they break with tradition further and parade ballistic missiles on this anniversary?

en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202109…
Switching to KCNA night shift monitoring...
#NorthKorea confirms parade of "Paramilitary and Public Security Forces" to celebrate 73rd Founding Anniversary of country
As expected, no ballistic missiles.

Also a return to paramilitary forces compared with the large regular forces paraded for the 2018 70th anniversary.

If you can't or won't access #NorthKorea state media I have downloaded all 73 parade photos for you:
flic.kr/s/aHsmWAhzVi

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More from @JosephHDempsey

Joseph Dempsey Profile picture
Sep 17
North Korea launches suspected ballistic missile according to South Korea (JCS) and Japan (MoD)

A single missile could likely indicate a
medium-long range system or something novel like a HGV test.

m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202407…
Both South Korea (JCS) and Japan (MoD) subsequently clarifying 'multiple' ballistic missile were launched by North Korea

🕖~06:50 (🇰🇷) / 06:53 & 07:23 (🇯🇵)
▶️~400km (🇰🇷)
🔼 No data
🗺️Launch from Kaechon area, North of Pyongyang (🇰🇷)

A few belated thoughts on North Korea's launch of "new-type tactical ballistic missile Hwasong-11-Da-4.5 and an improved strategic cruise missile"...
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Read 6 tweets
Joseph Dempsey Profile picture
Sep 17
My latest #MilitaryBalance @IISS_org blog utilises @Maxar satellite imagery to identify new progress by North Korea 🇰🇵 in modifying an Il-76 transport aircraft, providing additional evidence that is intended to be an airborne early warning (AEW) platform.
iiss.org/online-analysi…
1⃣. Satellite imagery by from 8 September 2024 shows the modifications on top of the fuselage uncovered for the first time with two convergent vertical struts consistent with a possible radar-dome mounting.

Image
2⃣. Recent imagery also indicates North Korea has added ventral strakes to the Il-76
Similar aerodynamic strakes are a common feature on other Il-76 AEW conversions (🇷🇺🇨🇳🇮🇶) to improve flight characteristics and counteract effects of the large radar dome. Image
Read 6 tweets
Joseph Dempsey Profile picture
Sep 12
North Korea launched "multiple ballistic missiles" this morning according to Japan MoD

🕖 07:10 - 07:14 (GMT+9)
▶️>350km
🔼~100km

mod.go.jp/j/press/news/2…
Image
Given the trajectories, multiples and time spread I assess North Korea's KN-25 guided MRLS would be the most likely candidate, rather than a 'traditional' ballistic missile.

Image
North Korea confirm KN-25 launches, albeit with new 6 tube launcher.





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Read 4 tweets
Joseph Dempsey Profile picture
Jun 25
Possible North Korea missile launch reported by Japan MoD.
North Korea ballistic missile launch confirmed by South Korea JCS

yna.co.kr/view/AKR202406…
"A military source told Yonhap News Agency that the North appears to have test-fired a hypersonic missile, but the test is believed to have ended in failure after the missile flew some 250 kilometers."
en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202405…
Read 4 tweets
Joseph Dempsey Profile picture
May 30
North Korea🇰🇵 launched "multiple ballistic missile" from Pyongyang's Sunan area.

🕕 06:13
▶️>350km
🔼~100km

Source: mod.go.jp/j/press/news/2…
Image
"around 10 short-range ballistic missiles" according to ROK JCS
en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202405…
KN-25 600mm guided MRLS rather than a 'traditional' SRBM is most likely candidate given trajectory (less depressed than norm 50km apogee given approaching max range) and volume of projectiles.


Image
Read 7 tweets
Joseph Dempsey Profile picture
Apr 1
North Korea launched suspected ballistic missile.
North Korea presumed to have launched an IRBM from Pyongyang region at 06:53 (GMT+9) according to South Korea JCS en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202404…
Initial North Korea ballistic missile launch trajectory data:

🕖06:52 (GMT+9)
▶️~650km
🔼~100km


Image
Read 6 tweets

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