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Joseph Dempsey Profile picture
@JosephHDempsey
Sep 8, 2021 • 11 tweets • 8 min read • Read on X
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I hate to rain on anyone's #NorthKorea 9th Sept military parade expectations but...

(a short thread)

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
#NorthKorea military parades are typically reserved for significant (+5/10 year) anniversaries of significant events in its relatively short history.

So a 9 Sept 2021 parade for 'only' the the 73rd anniversary of the "Foundation of the Republic" doesn't quite fit

However...
A decade ago #NorthKorea made an exception with a military parade for the 63rd "Foundation of the Republic" anniversary

63rd bit.ly/3l6xnR8 2011

This was one of Kim Jong Il last appearance, having missed the 2008 (60th) parade amid speculation over failing health.
DO NOT EXPECT BALLISTIC MISSILES!

#NorthKorea does not historically parade any for 9th Sept anniversary:

70th bit.ly/3l3maRx 2018
65th bit.ly/2MhL6Bi 2013
60th bit.ly/2MikrEz 2008
55th bit.ly/2Qk5GnR 2003
50th bit.ly/2x1Ti30 1998
For reference here is my @IISS_org blog on the 'missing' missiles from the 9 Sept 2018 parade iiss.org/blogs/military…
However #NorthKorea has a habit of surprising us!

Even without ballistic missiles on show, other significant conventional military capabilities and developments may still debut as they did in 2018
So 10 years on another exception to the rule with a military parade on the 73rd "Foundation of the Republic" anniversary

But will they break with tradition further and parade ballistic missiles on this anniversary?

en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202109…
Switching to KCNA night shift monitoring...
#NorthKorea confirms parade of "Paramilitary and Public Security Forces" to celebrate 73rd Founding Anniversary of country
As expected, no ballistic missiles.

Also a return to paramilitary forces compared with the large regular forces paraded for the 2018 70th anniversary.

If you can't or won't access #NorthKorea state media I have downloaded all 73 parade photos for you:
flic.kr/s/aHsmWAhzVi

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More from @JosephHDempsey

Joseph Dempsey Profile picture
Jan 4
North Korea reportedly test launch two ballistic missiles.

🕗07:54 AM (GMT+9)
▶️~900 km
🔼~50 km

🕗8:05 AM (GMT+9)
▶️~950 km
🔼~50 km

Source: @ModJapan_en mod.go.jp/j/press/news/2…Image
Initial data of North Korea's missile launches indicates likely KN-23 (Hwasong-11A) or derivative, particularly the possible irregular trajectory.

950km would be be the furthest ranged test yet and could imply 1000km+ at a minimum-energy trajectory (MET)

Image
North Korea states "the hypersonic missiles, launched from Ryokpho District, Pyongyang Municipality, to the northeast direction, hit the targets 1 000 km away from the East Sea of Korea."
Image
Read 5 tweets
Joseph Dempsey Profile picture
Dec 25, 2025
North Korea reveals claimed 8,700-ton "Nuclear-powered Strategic Guided Missile Submarine" Image
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North Korea's claim is not unexpected given the development of a nuclear-powered submarine was a key part of the 5 year plan outlined at he Jan 2021 8th WPK Congress - a public update or reveal ahead of the impending 9th Congress was always on the cards.

Image
North Korea also teased these two images back in March 2025, which appear consistent with the new imagery of the claimed nuclear-powered submarine, almost certainly located at Sinpo shipyard. Image
Image
Read 5 tweets
Joseph Dempsey Profile picture
Oct 11, 2025
A few selected comments and observations from North Korea latest military parade 🇰🇵🧵 Image
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1. Hwasong-20 ICBM
North Korea's "next-generation" solid-fuel ICBM had a more official debut - albeit via a likely empty TEL. State media had confirmed developed of this new system in September and completion of nine static-firing of its new ~1971Kn first state motor. Image
Image
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In retrospect we actually saw Hwasong-20 system (both TEL & missile) at the defense exhibition a week earlier but some ambiguity in identifying given similarity to Hwasong-19, potentially the recently announced improved version. Image
Read 9 tweets
Joseph Dempsey Profile picture
Apr 9, 2025
My latest @IISS_org Military Balance blog coauthored with Douglas Barrie uses @Maxar satellite imagery to confirm that Algeria has emerged as an unexpected recipient of Egypt’s long-grounded Sukhoi Su-35 Flanker M aircraft order from Russia.
iiss.org/online-analysi…
Satellite imagery of Komsomolsk-on-Amur, Russia on 2 March shows a Russian Air Force An-124 loading the fuselage section of an Egyptian paint scheme Su-35. A similarly marked An-124 was seen an Ain Beida/Oum el Bouaghi Air Base in Algeria on 5 March. Image
The first known commercial satellite image of an Su-35 in Algeria was captured on shortly after on 10 March at the same airbase, the distinct Algerian Air Force green and white roundel visible on the port wing.
This image is also now available on @googleearth (35.876719,7.271345) Image
Read 4 tweets
Joseph Dempsey Profile picture
Jan 17, 2025
My latest @IISS_org Military Balance blog revisits North Korea's Nampo shipyard following state media imagery confirming my previous suspicion North Korea is building its largest-ever warship there.
On 29 December 2024, KCTV aired a report that included four still images showing President Kim Jong-un inspecting a new naval vessel under construction.

The images released by KCTV capture at least two [in retrospect three] separate visits in recent months Image
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Though unstated the location was readily identifiable as Nampo shipyard, having featured in my Oct 2024 @IISS_org Military Balance blog highlighted an unusual structure emerging around the assembly of an unidentified vessel

My previous assessment here: go.iiss.org/40qnynGImage
Read 21 tweets
Joseph Dempsey Profile picture
Jan 6, 2025
North Korea claim successful test of new type of Intermediate-range Hypersonic Glide Vehicle (HGV) Image
Image
Launch of North Korea claimed new type HGV geolocated to 39.191350, 125.957236
Image
North Korea redeveloped this site around 6 months ago in similar garden style to the nearby Hwasong-18/19 launch site. Despite appearances of 'unprepared' launch sites satellite imagery also indicates hard standing was laid prior to turf to support the heavy launcher Image
Read 4 tweets

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