So, if we look at the rate of hospitalizations for double vaxxed folk (4.8 per 100,000) and apply it to number of people who are under-vaccinated, we can see how many ‘excess’ hospitalizations there are due to under-vaccination.
If we remove the estimated number of people in hospital <12 (using the age hospitalization data over the last 120 days)…
There are 413 excess people in hospital in Alberta due to under-vaccination.
Which is more than the total number of beds in the entire Grey Nuns Hospital.
That includes 113 excess people in ICU alone.
Foothills hospital in Calgary is one of the largest hospitals in Western Canada. At baseline, they have a 26 bed unit.
So we’re talking multiple large ICUs filled with unvaccinated people in EXCESS of what’s expected w/ vaccination.
Removing the relatively few partially vaccinated folk to make the point clearer, here is the rate of hospitalization per 100,000 residents for unvaccinated (grey) vs fully vaccinated + 2 weeks (blue).
Being unvaccinated carries a multiple-fold increased risk at every age.
Rate stats are helpful since there's different numbers of people in every category by age and vaccination status. But using the absolute numbers does paint a stark picture of who's in hospital.
This is the total COVID hospitalizations for the last 120 days in Alberta.
I mean, LOOK at this!
Yes, COVID disproportionately impacts the elderly. But if you walked through a COVID ward over the last 4 months in Alberta, you'd see MOSTLY non-elderly people. You'd see as many people in their 30s as in their 70s.
B/c the 30 yos aren't getting vaxxed!
What about pre-existing conditions? Well, we have that data in fact. Certainly having other conditions increases your risk of COVID. But this is the total number of COVID hospitalizations over the last 4 months for people WITHOUT pre-existing conditions.
If you turned this into a rate-stat, it would look different but I don't know how many people in Alberta do or don't have pre-existing conditions. So I can't do that.
However, seems pretty clear that even if you DON'T have other medical conditions, you should get the vaccine!
If you're vaccinated & don't have other medical conditions (respiratory diseases, diabetes, stroke, dementia, cardiovascular disease, liver or renal diseases, cancer & immuno-deficiency diseases), your chance of getting hospitalized with COVID goes to near nothing at ANY age.
All of this comes at a human cost. A cost to the healthcare system. To burned out healthcare workers. To people who need the healthcare system for 'any' other illness.
Choosing to be unvaccinated has a cost to self and to society.
This isn't some grand conspiracy from healthcare. We just want 1) for you not to get really sick & need us 2) to help other people who are really sick too 3) to not be completely destroyed emotionally by sheer burnout
Honestly, that's it.
This isn't some crooked data. It's literally just freely available data from the Alberta government.
If there was a government that would want to downplay the impact of COVID, it would be the government of #BestSummerEver.
And it matches what my HCW colleagues are seeing.
I forgot to add, there's also obviously a financial cost to under-vaccination. Canadian average hospital costs are $1135/day and ICU costs are $3592/day.
So 413 excess hospitalizations (including 113 ICU) means $746,396 in excess hospital costs due to under vaccination in 1 day!
Of course, there’s other ‘costs’ to under-vaccination as well. Given the hospital situation outlined in the above thread, now some children’s surgeries are getting delayed or cancelled.
Not controlling for age (which would make this number worse) and subtracting the estimated number of children <12 in hospital, there are 591 excess hospitalizations due to under vaccination.
That’s almost enough to completely fill the U of A Hospital (which has 650 total beds).
That includes 191 excess ICU beds due to under vaccination. A good size ICU is about 20 beds or so.
So there’s about 9-10 full ICUs in excess of what one might expect if everyone 12+ was vaccinated. (Not accounting for age or decrease in spread due to vaccination.)
Who wants some GRAPHS?
This is your chance of being in hospital with COVID 'right now' in Alberta. Current admission ages estimated based on admission data over the last 120 days.
Some breakthrough in the older age groups, but it's mostly unvaxxed people.
I’ve tweeted about this before but the impact of social media, especially Instagram, on teenagers makes sense from a psychological development point of view.
It’s an app that targets exactly the developmental stage of teens.
One of the major developmental goals for teens is identity formation. Teens strive to figure out who they are. Especially as if it relates to their peers. Younger kids are shaped more by their immediate family. Teens start to expand their circle.
That’s normal developmentally.
So imagine an app that allows you test out aspects of your identity. It gives you instant, immediate feedback. From your peers but also strangers. In fact, make it quantifiable. There’s no guesswork. Here’s the exact number of likes. And who specifically liked it.
So @hinz_tamara & I are giving a Grand Rounds this Friday on Physician Advocacy Through Social Media. I’m going to live tweet some questions from the Rounds and share responses with the group.
But in anticipation of the rounds, I have some questions to my followers:
Feel free to respond to these in replies. This isn’t meant to be anything official, obviously this is not a research methodology. Just curious about what the responses might be.
1) What information do you most value from physicians through social media?
Wait, is there going to be a protest against vaccine mandates in Calgary? A city in a province without a vaccine mandate? In front of hospitals that are so overloaded with unvaccinated people (b/c of this lack of mandate) that many vaccinated people had their healthcare canceled?
“What do we want?”
COVID!
“How do we want it?”
In such overwhelming quantities so as to overwhelm the healthcare system and cancel other people’s cancer surgeries!
Like, my dudes, you’ve already won, take the W and leave us be.
“We want to be able to eat at a restaurant without proof of vaccination!”
Sir, you are literally at the Wendy’s in front of U of A hospital. Without proof of vaccination. Now if you’ll excuse me, we’re trying to serve the families of all the unvaccinated people in the ICU.
From my DMs. This is a classic medical ethics question.
I understand the anger and frustration driving this. The philosophical question of fairness & who gets treatment and who doesn’t.
However if we believe in universal healthcare, we can’t ration healthcare based on morality.
If you speed going 200 km/hr, if you give yourself alcohol poisoning because someone dared you to a Centurion, if you lost a game of South Park Roshambo, if you broke your hand in a pointless hockey fight b/c of some dumb “Code”, you shouldn’t get rationed healthcare differently.
We can triage based on severity, based on prognosis, on how likely you are to benefit, on what it is the most appropriate level of care.
But I don’t think we can triage based on whether you made a single bad decision. No matter how poor that decision was.