1) Testing peaking last week? 2) Big Case catch up day, but new peak maybe not in reach? 3) Hospitalizations down vs last week (LW), even post Labor Day 4) Fatality breakdown on 286 reported. Down again from LW?
* PCR Pos% as of 8/31 at 13.81%
* Testing through 8/31 appears to be forming a peak. 7DMA rate of increase is nearing zero
* Covidestim with huge drop in Rt to .76
* If Tests are cresting w/ declining positivity, this week will see declines in cases
2/n .
9/8 Cases
* 25.1K Cases reported, Labor Day catch up vs 17.0K last Wed
* Case 7DMA WoW up 1.2%
* Peak is 9/5
* 7DMA is over 2K behind peak. With 3 tough comps coming up, don't think there's enough cases left to set a new peak. Especially with tests cresting thru 8/31
3/n .
9/8 Hospitalizations
* +21 to 13520. Last Wed was +18
* Barely any post Labor Day rebound
* Single Day Peak is 8/25 - 13932
* 7DMA Rate of Decline at 0.9%
* ICU also post peak
* Based on 5/n Admits these numbers are only going down
4/n .
9/8 - Hosp Covid Admits
* Statewide Admits down 227 from last Wednesday
* Tomorrow should be last day for any post Labor Day rebound
* 14DMA rate of change for all TSA areas - majority are negative
* TMC and SETRAC reflect same trend down
Fatalities later
5/n .
9/8 - Fatalities Part 1
Deep diving today. As hosps peaked last week of Aug, so will fatalities. Already seeing reporting numbers into that week.
1st off, this week's Cut 1 projections were virtually the same as last week's Cut 1. Either LaborDay or could be flattening.
6/n .
9/8 - Fatalities Part 2
The projections estimate # of fatalities will be reported for a date. The estimator %s are at bottom of 6/n. Briefly:
Date 2 weeks old (wo) has 57% of fatalities in
3 wo = 79%
4 wo = 90%
Actuals have come in much faster than this for 60 days now
7/n
9/8 - Fatalities Part 3
Ultimately, I'm trying to estimate how the red circle fills in. Right now I'm comparing 2020 Summer to 2021 Summer, but as you can see, the peak of 2021 Summer hospitalizations was so much higher than Summer 2020. Almost identical to Winter 2020.
8/n .
9/8 - Fatalities Part 4
In comparing to 2020 on the left, you can see #1 how much higher the hospitalization line rises. #2, you can see how much lower the fatalities are through 8/17/21 & 7/17/20 - 2 waves 13 months apart. 10/n will do the usual breakdown of that
9/n
9/7 Fatalities Part 5:
* Primer in 12/n
* 2021 thru 8/17, 2020 thru 7/17, waves 13 mo apart
* Fatalities thru above:
* 2020- 4855, 238 7DMA
* 2021- 3690, 176 7DMA
* Despite much higher hosps at this point in the wave, fatalities running 25% lower than 2020.
10/n .
9/8 Fatalities Part 6
* 2 - 2020 Deaths in todays report #nuts
* You can see 95% of fatalities were less than 3 weeks old. First half of August getting virtually nothing now
* I expect some heavier reporting tomorrow due to Labor Day, but we are post peak now. Who knows
11/n
9/8 - Fatalities Primer
Original 7/20/20 primer. Again the projections are over-estimating total fatalities, because Im expecting more older ones than we've seen. 3 Cuts at estimates whittles down the gap. Also a final cut at 6 weeks (not shown)
We are post peak, even cases almost assuredly. Testing seems to have been leveling out last week of Aug. Hospitalizations - its all downhill now. We've got 3 more rough days of fatality reports, and some into next week and then its going to cool off.
13/end
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* Continued strengthening of traffic numbers the past month
* Within a few points of clawing all the way back
* Forecasting through the Thanksgiving Holiday
* Total number of passengers who have flown in the past 30 days is 96.3% of 2019. In the past 3 months its 94.6%
* You can see it in the 7DMA % vs 2019 chart, the blue line has been all over that 95% line since Labor Day
* Today's 7DMA is 97.45%
2/n
11/21 Airlines Page 3
* As I've stated before, comparisons between 2019 & 2022 are tricky. Because Holidays shift dates and/or days every year. 2020 was a leap year, so +2 days right there
* These 2 charts compare 1) #s as TSA reports them & 2) #s as reported historically
* Positive tests continue their slow rise into the mid 2K per day range
* Hospitalization leading indicators showing a very gentle uptick. Spring mini-bump may be here
* C19 Fatalities in April 2022 will be an all time low
5/16 - Testing takes ~10 days for a date to be ~90% in.
As of 5/6:
* Positivity rate @ 6.39%
* 2188 positive tests 7DMA, rising to mid 2Ks in next 5-7 days. At height of Omicron that number was 80K
* Testing 7DMA running a consistent historically low 34K per day.
2/n
5/16 - Testing & Cases
* 34K tests per day is 14% of what TX was receiving at the height of Omicron
* Interesting to see the interaction of end of school with mild spread. Will testing rise?
* Batch reported cases in line with testing, now at 2.5K per day & slowly rising
* 3 Weeks since federal mask mandate was struck down
* 8 straight weeks of 2022 7DMA traffic being north of 2 million and also being between 87-91% of 2019 traffic
* Demand is north of 100% of 2019, but supply still isn't there
The 7 day moving avg continues in this consistent narrow band, currently sitting at 2.10 Million passengers per day the past 7 days, and at 89% of 2019 numbers.
Expect these numbers to rise significantly through Memorial Day.
2/n
5/11 Airlines Page 3
Long term traffic numbers are strong - the 70 day Moving Avg is at an all time C19 high of 2.09M and slowly rising - basically inline with the 7 day average.
The industry is basically back to what it was pre-covid, just a little smaller.
* Slowly rising positivity rate plus falling testing = same number of positive tests er'e day
* Hospitalizations continue to set new all time lows
* A couple of weird numbers to explain
4/3 - Testing takes ~10 days for a date to be ~90% in.
* 2 tweets on testing today
As of 3/31:
* Up to 2.48% from 2.14% last week
* Day number 24 below the previous all time low of 2.60% set on 6/7/21
* So its slowly climbing but because fewer people are getting tested...
2/n
4/3 - Testing Part 2
* The number of total positive tests has been running right between 1100 and 1150 per day for the past 2 weeks.
* Outside of 4th of July 2021 and Winter Freeze 2021, we've never seen PCR testing this low. Nobody is getting tested right now.
* A brief mid-week update on numbers through yesterday
* Pos% mini-bump fizzling out. Testing approaching record lows
* Hospitalizations continue setting record lows
* a 4 tweet thread today to go through the numbers
As of 3/28:
* Minibump up to 2.42%. Upcoming incomplete days show slowing growth
* Testing falls to 47K a day which approaches post-testing industrial complex lows of 43K in Jun 2021. Fewer people getting tested.
* Positive tests super flat at ~1150 per day
2/n
4/7 - Hospitalizations
* Covid Admissions 7DMA at new record low of 134/day, and still declining slightly
* Hospital Census 7DMA under 1000 for the first time ever
* Census % beds used by C19 at new low of 1.5%
* ICU Census approaches 200. Never saw below 400 before now