The costs of intelligence and energy are going to be on a path towards near-zero.
We certainly won’t get all the way there this decade, but by 2030, it will become clear that the AI revolution and renewable+nuclear energy are going to get us there.
(This won't be true for every kind of intelligence--AI will likely be really great at many things and surprisingly bad at others--but enough to change a lot of things.)
For some time now, intelligence and energy have been the fundamental limiters towards most things we want. A future where these are not the limiting reagents will be radically different, and can be amazingly better.
The constraints we’ve all grown used to will no longer apply—we will be able to do stuff with bits and atoms we can barely imagine now.
These two changes will be the foundational changes that most change everything else, but of course lots of other things will happen too. EG, expect a big decade for longevity research, AR/VR, psychedelic medicine, cryptocurrency driving major societal change, etc etc.
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The tax system in California has been broken for some time, and in a world of increasing remote work, is going to become even more broken.
There is a market for different state income tax rates; you can live in a state with a top income tax rate of 13.3%, or 0%, or many rates in between. Historically, you’ve needed to live near your job, but now for many jobs you don’t.
Some people are choosing to keep their same job but move to a location with a much lower income tax rate. The thing that has worked for California for so long—many of the best jobs in the country requiring big taxpayers to live here—may not keep working.
It is a rudimentary version of what will be possible, but it really works and will get better fast. Today we can correctly complete a function from our evaluation set about 37% of the time. It's also just really fun to use, and brings back the early joy of programming for me.
I think Codex gets close to what most of us really want from computers—we say what we want, and they do it.
Programming languages are an artifact of computers not being able to actually understand us, and humans and computers relying on a lingua franca to understand each other.
Almost everyone starts off extrinsically motivated to some degree.
Basic version: for most people the levels of the video game go money, power (little power as in managing other people, etc), status (and proving yourself), impact (real power), and finally ‘self-actualization’, eg seeing how good you can be and expressing your curiosity.
All the levels always overlap (most people who do great work were never entirely driven by money, at least not for long, and people on the last level still want more status/ impact), but the mix changes a lot over time. The last level is like infinite Tetris, it never stops.
If you want to have the biggest possible impact in tech, I think you should still move to the Bay Area.
The people here, and the network effects caused by that, are worth it.
It's hard to overstate the magic of lots of competent, optimistic people in one place.
The future will certainly be more distributed, but I think that a large fraction of the most important US companies started in the next decade will continue to be within 50 miles of SF.
It's easy to not be in the Bay Area right now, because there's not much to miss out on. As soon as stuff restarts, and the most interesting meetings, dinners, events, and parties are here, I predict FOMO brings a lot of people back fast :)
The expected value of your impact on the world is like a vector.
It is defined by two things: direction and magnitude. That’s it.
Direction is what you choose to work on. Almost no one spends enough time thinking about this. A useful framework for this is to think on a long-but-not-too-long timescale (10-20 years seems to work),