A reminder of how vaccine development has been speeding up - but scicne and medicine did especially amazingly for this pandemic. A new benchmark?
A nice reminder that while most of COVID-19 is mild and moderate, a sizable portion is not at all - from hospitals through to death.
Polio was a rare outcome from poliovirus infection - but it wasn't something anyone wanted.
Vaccines work in these severe outcomes spaces.
And that severity is of course best viewed been broken down by age group.
But infection isn't just about "it's all good" vs "DEAAATH". Hospitalisations and ICU admissions clearly *can be* spread much more obviously across age groups. And remember that small percentages (literally, 'per 100s') get bigger quickly when overall case numbers shoot up.
I like the clarity of this pathway to determining Years Lived with Disability (YLD) and Years of Life Lost (YLL).
There were a *lot* of YLL - even in Australia which manage that brilliantly. Especially among males.
These next few are for the "why are your citizens so willing to do what they're told" krew.
(Answer of course is "Why are *yours* not?". Why so willing to run towards death and disease instead of science-led, short-term pain for longer-term gain"?
Case rates-🖐NZ, SK, SG, JP🖐
Death rates 🖐NZ, SK, SG, JP🖐
Excess deaths (under the 5-year average in Australia and New Zealand (I'm looking at you and your multisystem event triggering capacity influenza)
What If...
...Australia saw the same case rates as some other countries...?
Why would we want to have been like anyone sles (except New Zealand, but that's a daily question really)
......Australia saw the same death rates as some other countries...?
What if, indeed.
Australia saw a decrease in all-cause deaths per 100,000 in 2020 (this may look different in 2021 of course)
A drop in death due to (?with) most of these selected diseases in Australia last year.
Massive drop in influenza and pneumonia deaths compared to the previous 5-years
But I don't mean to trivialise the impact of a pandemic and the responses to it. Mental Health service use trended upwards throughout 2020...
Especially wherever the pandemic was most directly impacted, and especially among the young...
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For the AJ Leonardi fans recent quote posts of me (he blocked me, so it took others to point them out🙏; I've returned the favour now), I'll add that the definition of "immune" or "immunity" does not imply never getting infected. It's a term scientists use & it can differ from..
..that used by you in the wider community.
To us, if I can speak for all scientists (!I can't🙂), it means your body has mounted an immune *response*. That response - such as the one _most humans_ mount to SARS-CoV-2 after infection (whole virus) or vaccination (mainly Spike...
..protein) generally make future infection by the same thing, less severe. Having immunity (producing or 'mounting' an immune response) protects you from serious disease (hospital-level stuff) & death. It may protect you from less severe disease too. Not all vaccines are as..
#COVID19 in Australian hospitals over the last 12 months.
Creeping up from the lowest base over that period.
But what is the State of Queensland doing?
I don't think anywhere else in Aus has had this strange little peak and drop at this time.
If look at the entire pandemic in Australia, we see there's still a *long* way to go before we see a 'flu-like' pattern of a between-peak drop to a baseline of basically zero hospitalisations.
If it ever drops to that of course.
😷Respiratory virus data in these tweets are from Sullivan Nicolaides Pathology (SNP) lab weekly report.
😷They service #Queensland, northern New South Wales and wider Darwin area and Alice Springs
•Reports: snp.com.au/clinicians/res…
•SNP locations:snp.com.au/our-locations/
😷A reminder that whatever respiratory signs & symptoms bring a patient in for a test/Doctor's visit - many very different respiratory viruses can cause that disease. Only a good pathology laboratory test has a hope of identifying a cause.
🧬Detailed public-facing PCR data from a private lab in Queensland, Australia (thankyou🙏) showing #Flu % positivity around 6%↔ (about 1 in 16 samples tested are FluA or FluB positive).
•FluB showing its spiky face but FluA dominating
•RSV and rhinovirus number⬆
"Equatorial Guinea said on Wednesday that it had registered the "unusual epidemiological situation" over the past weeks in Kie-Ntem province's Nsok Nsomo district that caused nine deaths in two adjacent communities over a short period."
🔅What follows is not to minimise serious impact of COVID-19. Because many things are true at once. 🔅
Pre-pandemic, excess deaths from heart & other issues were associated with respiratory virus seasons-Flu, RSV, MPV etc.
Cleaned air & 😷 will also reduce risk of those harms
We've never succeeded in removing those harms or, in many nations, made serious non-vax efforts to reduce the risks, although a well matched flu vaccine likely helps them for flu.
But now SARS-CoV-2 has added more harms to the pile.
We have plenty of evidence of airborne spread for all respiratory viruses. Including SARS-CoV-2. We have plenty of evidence of how to interfere with that without needing to lockdown.
Yes, even masks (despite some poorly thought out studies) have a role.
We are all playing Covid roulette. Without clean air, the next infection could permanently disable you.
-a pretty full summary of the worst of it all. 1/7 theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
"Do we really mean to sit and watch as this infection encroaches on our freedom to be well, brutal winter after brutal winter?"
🦠Of course "No", but I can't square that with the fact that in my lifetime, there's been no action but a vaccine for the same question about influenza
Because we prove again & again that we have short memories. We'd rather fight than learn/progress.
We're easily distracted & don't care about the death of our elderly (we do seem to care about neonate & infant deaths)
Not very hard to see why we *must* have leadership.
3/7