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Brendan Nyhan Profile picture
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10 Sep, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Not just falsely questioning 2020 but starting to try to undermine *2022* - incredibly dangerous and destructive to democracy
“there isn’t really any middle ground on overthrowing the government. And that is what Mr. Trump and his allies were up to in 2020, through both violent and nonviolent means — and continue to be up to today.”
nytimes.com/2021/09/10/opi… Image
An ongoing, increasingly party-wide attack on the legitimacy of our electoral system
Happening right in front of us - *before* the election
“This swift embrace of false allegations of cheating in the California recall reflects a growing instinct on the right to argue that any lost election, or any ongoing race that might result in defeat, must be marred by fraud.” nytimes.com/2021/09/12/us/…

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More from @BrendanNyhan

Brendan Nyhan Profile picture
14 Sep
No one should be comforted by the Milley news. Trump's instability and effort to overturn the election unfortunately inspired a new kind of norm violation. However well-intentioned it may have been, we don't want generals deciding to take over foreign policy from civilians.
but also this
Read 4 tweets
Brendan Nyhan Profile picture
14 Sep
Partisan gap wildly overstated. Majority of Rs are getting vaccinated too. The problem is the intensity is concentrated in the anti-vax and anti-anti-anti-vax elements of the base.
The other side of the coin
Read 4 tweets
Brendan Nyhan Profile picture
7 Sep
New @Journal_Of_Comm w/@jinwoo_kim01 @andyguess @JasonReifler on how self-selection & exposure to incivility fuel online comment toxicity
academic.oup.com/joc/advance-ar…

-Commenters very polarized
-FB comment toxicity >> comments from nat rep sample
-Toxicity → likes, more toxicity
🧵
Key finding 1 (academic.oup.com/joc/advance-ar…):

Consistent w/@boralexander1 @M_B_Petersen finding that online hostility reflects differences in who participates in political discussion online (cambridge.org/core/journals/…), we show commenters are unusually politically engaged & polarized.
Key finding 2 (academic.oup.com/joc/advance-ar…):

Prior research has no baseline for assessing online comments so we compared FB comments w/comments we elicited from a public sample on those articles. Real-world comments and those from commenters were more toxic (using Perspective API).
Read 6 tweets
Brendan Nyhan Profile picture
5 Sep
Debunked
Thread. I RTd what appeared to be a credible story about it but had second thoughts yesterday in need for more verification and found out it had already fallen apart
Read 5 tweets
Brendan Nyhan Profile picture
1 Sep
New article in Vaccine testing effects of vaccine messaging on immunization behavior (w/@katie_clayton14 et al.) authors.elsevier.com/c/1dgWQ,60n7gZ…

Convergent evidence from survey/field experiments showing null effects of social norms & myths/facts messages on childhood vaccinations in VT.
This is one of the projects I'm most proud of in my career. Took >4 years to complete and would have been impossible without (a) our incredible partners at the Vermont Dept. of Health, Christine Finley and Meredith Graves, and (b) support from @theNASciences and Rita Allen Fdn.
The project was motivated by a simple question - can different or better messaging improve vaccine uptake? We have an increasing number of studies examining effects of message exposure on vaccine *intentions* but few or none examining effects on actual *behavior*.
Read 6 tweets
Brendan Nyhan Profile picture
31 Aug
Per @jbview, "Lawmakers on the D fringe are ideological outliers but not radicals; those on the R fringe are radical, but not necessarily policy outliers." bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… GOP base energized by undermining election, anti-COVID restrictions, and race backlash, not policy.
This is always true, of course - policy is boring! But elites have provided some anyway in part due to demands from activists. With few demands of that type, GOP now almost content-free. Trump dispensed with a platform in 2020 & not clear what policy ideas the party would offer.
Note: Parties always seem confused and disjointed when out of power. But typically ambitious politicians start developing policies and trying to build consensus for platform in next election. Hard to do that when base rewards closed circuit of Fox hits and social media posturing.
Read 4 tweets

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