Thread by @nonewthing

Timed Outlets, or How Pep Guardiola Wants to Redefine Possession Play.

(a thread/?).

Possession football has had a long and conflicted history. From historical highs under Wenger's Invincibles to the stodgy, despiriting football of Van Gaal's United, coaches and fans alike have praised and panned possession play. One unique exception has been Pep Guardiola.

Guardiola is regarded as one of the finest tactical minds in the history of the game. His keen appreciation and extremely successful coaching of possession play has resonated deeply across all tiers of football.

In recent years, however, a sense of staleness has creeped in.

For Pep, possession is a means of establishing control over a chaotic game. The ball is round and bouncy. It is surrounded by 22 highly trained, extremely talented, highly motivated and very well-paid men with disaligning intentions. Above them, a crowd bays for blood and honour.

Pep wants to find clarity in all this. He wants control and a well-defined path to goal. How do you bring control to chaos? Calm to a curse? Peace among all nations?

By taking control of the reason behind it all, the incentive to war and clamour: you take control of the ball.

Pep has many fundamental rules to his version of possession play, most of it traceable to a philosophy called 'El Juego De Posicion' or simply positional play in English.

https://twitter.com/nonewthing/status/1433517573241516032?s=19

The rules are many and varied. Not more than a few men in one part of the pitch at a time. Playing out from the back with a free or extra man. Triangles. Third-men. Overloads. Running from deep. These rules are not confined to juego de posicion in particular but they are part of

an overarching vision and hierarchy meant to achieve maximal returns from minimal risks in the unique way that JDP wants it.

One of the core foundations in JDP or Guardiola play is the use of outlets.

What are outlets?

There are many definitions but you can sum outlets up as

players with the role or functionality to break through walls, traps and blocks with their movement and consequently

1. Receive the ball to score/carry
2. Drag the opposition line backwards
3. Make the play advance vertically

In short, they exist to disrupt and drag defences.

Outlets are a necessary tool in possession play. You can have all the possession in the world but you become easy to play against when there is no one threatening to get in behind a defensive line. Defenders have no worries, no need to check behind their shoulders or cover.

All they need to concentrate on is stopping the action in front of them. That is easy.

Outlets create uncertainty and occupy defensive lines. You have to watch how you step out to defend, who you are not covering. You have to look over your shoulders and pick runners.

The ball is here and your mind is there because Timo Werner is trying to run in behind you. Defending against outlets requires a lot of concentration.

Outlets are usually built as runners. Your Sterlings, Salahs, Aubameyangs, Halaands, Werners, Manes and Martinellis.

But they don't necessarily have to be speedy. It can also be an assigned role given to your poachers, strikers, Bruno Fernandeses.

'Hey, you, your job is to run in behind this game.'

Of course, being really fast should make you a tough outlet to handle.

In any case, all possession schemes require outlets, people willing to run in behind even without the ball. It is not a glamorous role. The cameras won't highlight you and pick you up so fans won't really notice you but defenders definitely will. It is necessity.

Players, however, have different relationships to the ball when their teams have possession. Some like to come towards it often. These are your Neymars, Hazards, Messis, Grealishes. It is not that they can't run in behind but they mostly prefer to be the one finding runners.

Others, by virtue of limited talent or greater understanding of the necessities of the game, prefer to often run in behind to stretch defenses, give their teammates an option and their opponents an headache.

It is two sides of a coin. You need both types of players to do well.

This is the role that Pedro served for Pep's Barcelona. This is the role that Timo Werner mostly serves for his team. This is the role that makes Salah look unglamorous.

It's a little bit more complex than that, though. These players are not totally useless on the ball.

But the rule of thumb is that players tend to be one type or the other.

For Pep Guardiola, Raheem Sterling is that guy for him at City. But most of his players are those who are attracted to the ball. This is why some claim that his football has gone stale, the lack of outlets.

It is a serious criticism and maybe even concern. When City played with two outlets in Sane and Sterling, they became centurions and scored 100 goals.

Why? Because Sane and Sterling constantly threatened to run in behind, which forced City's possession play to be quite vertical.

The next season, City added Riyad Mahrez, a star player notorious for his attraction to the ball.

One season later, Leroy Sane was sold to Bayern Munich. This season, Jack Grealish has been added to the side for 100 million. Grealish is, of course, another ball-to-feet player.

Many of Pep's critics expected him to add some verticality to the forward line by signing a striker who likes to run in behind. Erling Halaand would have been a perfect candidate for that. Instead, City went after Harry Kane, a striker now notorious for coming towards the ball.

For his critics, Pep has committed a cardinal offense against the basics of football. It is a fundamental requirement to have outlets—doesn't that baldie know that? Did he not teach that in Pedro, Sane, Coman? What is wrong with this dude? How is going to win the CL like this?

Pep the teacher wants to teach again. Pep the winner wants to win again. And how's he gonna do that? By uprooting and reinventing his own cardinal rules. His last major reinvention was the use of false fullbacks at Bayern Munich. His new major reinvention will be more subtle.

Pep wants to kill outlets. Or the traditional ideas of them in possession play. Nothing is wrong with outlets per se. But, for Pep, everything is a long march towards control. If there was one thing that can be done to give him added control over games, he would do it.

Now, imagine a front 3 of Kane, Mahrez and Grealish. How would that work? All 3 are attracted to the ball; all 3 are perfect ball handlers. Who would run?

Here is the trick. Pep never wants to be caught in transition again, especially by top teams. He is going to achieve this by

1. Having more perfect ball handlers in the final third who are usually less erratic with possession than nominal outlets in the final third. Sterling vs Grealish, for example.

2. Using depth more. High defensive lines are a trope in possession play. But they are dangerous.

And they are very suspectible to being caught out. They can invite chaos and Pep hates chaos. Pressing has almost been fully explored. There's quite little left you can do to protect high defensive lines. Ball-to-feet players will require more space to operate in, so Pep wants to

drop his defensive lines a little bit further when he can. This will make the final third a little less congested when play is recycled among his players, as well as making it a lot more difficult for his team to be caught in transition. Slight tweak for a better defense.

But how would his teams score?

Watch City play right now to see. While he still has outlets in Ferran Torres and Raheem Sterling, City are now playing very scripted football. Kevin De Bruyne's influence has waned and will wane over time. City will become even less individualized

The way City work out attacking sequences out wide is perhaps now more boring to watch than it ever was.

Why?

Because it is safer, more intent on keeping the ball and making sure everything is in place for the final action, especially if the ball does not go in the net.

This very prepared version of football will find verticality and life in timed outlets, more than natural outlets who are a bit less safer with the ball.

Timed outlets are already a thing in football and in how City play. Only this time, there will be maximal emphasis on it.

One of the quirks of outlet play is that it has best moments for it. Naturally, all top players, no matter what type, sense the right moments to run in behind. This will be further emphasized and inculcated in City.

Outlet play—a thing once belonging to so inclined players, will now belong to everyone.

Everyone will be an outlet. Everyone will come towards the ball. The complete and perfect division of labour. Guardiola marches one step closer to improving the way we see football.

With Barca, Pep did not think of this reinvention because of many factors.

—Spanish teams generally do not have as many dangerous transition players as the Premier League does. The likes of Zaha play in sides like Crystal Palace.

—People couldn't yet figure out what he did.

—The existence of Messi, Xavi, Iniesta as ultimate ball-handlers.

But now in the most competitive league in the world, without these attenuating circumstances, Pep is playing with a weaker hand, despite spending so much, and is being forced to reinvent his football.

Kane and Grealish were meant to be the beginning of it all. Grealish in particular is one of the few ultimate ball-handlers in football. The idea is to enforce even more movement and fluidity between and in behind. No more looking at Sterling to make the runs.

Everyone runs!

It is not really a reinvention ultimately. It is just more of an emphasis. More safety in the final third. More technical security. Less pressing to do. Lower defensive line. More emphasis on rotations, fluidity and movement from everyone. It is more of the same, a subtle tweak.

This is how Pep Guardiola wants to win again. A new, rejigged version of his all-time-great Barcelona team.

Thank you for reading me.