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10 Sep, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Six months ago, Vietnam had supposedly "handled" covid via masks, border controls, and contact tracing.

They were held up as a model for the world.

businessinsider.com/vietnam-corona…
Today, they have been in lockdown for over a month; streets are barricaded; people are confined to their homes.

"It is like living in a jail," 72-year-old Hanoi resident Ho Thi Anh said.

msn.com/en-xl/news/oth…
The army has been called in to enforce the lockdown.

People are being sentenced to 5 year prison terms for breaking quarantine.

usatoday.com/story/news/wor…
Vietnam's covid response "rank" has fallen from 2nd in the world to a tie for last...

With manufacturing shut down indefinitely, this will put more pressure on global supply chains.

ft.com/content/ca37cd…
Eventually, covid comes for us all.

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More from @Humble_Analysis

PLC Profile picture
9 Sep
Nepal: seroprevelance survey in Jul-Aug indicates at least 68.6% of population has already recovered from Covid.

Given reported deaths of 11K, this indicates an infection fatality rate of 0.06% in Nepal.

sify.com/news/70-of-nep…
Nepal had two waves of Covid infection; cases peaked and began a rapid descent at a time when only 1% of the population had been vaccinated.

Currently, with cases continuing to decline rapidly, less than 20% of the nation has been vaccinated.
Daily deaths in Nepal have declined 92% off peak, driven either by seasonality or by immunity from natural infection.

Given that >70% of the nation has been infected and recovered, natural immunity may now play a larger role in suppression than seasonality.
Read 5 tweets
PLC Profile picture
7 Sep
"New infections have fallen sharply in nearly every nation in South America... reprieve has been so sharp and fast, even as the delta variant wreaks havoc elsewhere in the world, that experts cannot quite explain it."

seattletimes.com/nation-world/c…
“It’s not easy to explain.”

Experts at a loss to explain the sudden drop in cases across South America; there have been "no new sweeping or large-scale containment measures", travel and economic activity has picked up, schools have opened. Image
There is some attempt to credit vaccines for the decline - but there is no correlation between vaccination rates and case rates in South America.

In fact, Paraguay has both the lowest rate of vaccination and the lowest case rate. Image
Read 4 tweets
PLC Profile picture
5 Sep
The flu has returned to India after an absence of ~18 months. This almost certainly indicates that covid has become endemic in India and that there will be no significant future waves.
Indian hospitals are reporting high numbers of sick patients - but only 0.1% are testing positive for covid (rate of false positives) but many patients are testing positive for the flu:

indianexpress.com/article/cities…
Seroprevelance surveys in India indicate that 2/3 of the population has antibodies to covid. Is that the HIT threshold necessary to end the pandemic phase, allow the flu to return, and mark covid as just another endemic virus?

indianexpress.com/article/explai…
Read 6 tweets
PLC Profile picture
5 Sep
Canada opened the land border to fully vaccinated Americans on August 9th, hoping to spur recovery in their destroyed tourism industry.

Border crossings did increase somewhat at first but have steadily declined since: currently down 90% versus 2019:
It's not that Americans are afraid to travel, either: TSA passenger throughput has nearly recovered to pre-Covid levels:
So, why isn't anyone going to Canada? You need to download an app, upload proof of vaccination, get a PCR test, upload that into the app, and submit to random testing at the border. You also need to have somewhere you can quarantine for 10 days if you test positive in Canada.
Read 4 tweets
PLC Profile picture
2 Sep
All across the southern tier of the USA, hospitalizations have peaked and are now beginning to decline.
Across the northwest, hospitalizations are still rising (but appear close to peak):
The northeast looks to have peaked, as well, with a very moderate summer wave:
Read 5 tweets
PLC Profile picture
31 Aug
Israel now has the highest current case rate in the entire world.

Oddly, Israel was also the first country to vaccinate the majority of their population and the first country to vaccinate 80% of adults.
Israel has also seen vaccination rates stagnate at ~60% of persons / ~80% of adults.

This is likely the maximum uptake possible in any large nation, outside of totalitarian regimes.

It wasn't enough to prevent record infections and rising mortality.
Israel has now administered booster doses to 25% of the population; their vaccine passport will no longer consider as vaccinated anyone who has let six months pass since their last injection.

This is not the behavior of a nation which has confidence in continuing efficacy.
Read 4 tweets

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