New 🧵on Epic decision. YGR makes some interesting factual determination that may be contested on appeal.
First that is from some of the sealed economic testimony. A very large share of Apple's app store revenue comes from mobile game transactions.
YGR decided that the relevant market was mobile games, not gaming overall as Apple had proposed. She says this is because there are important differences in mobile gaming, such as the demographics of who plays (lots more women) versus on PCs/consoles.
She says mobile gaming includes both smartphones and tablets and rejects as "not persuasive" the idea that they are different because of the lack of a cellular connection on tablets. (That's contestable. Games that requires a connection, you have to use phone or tablet with WiFi)
She also discussed the evolution of game streaming and the Nintendo Switch and decides neither are in the mobile gaming market because they're "too new"
But this is the most interesting detail that I suspect will be contested: Apple's mobile gaming market share.
Apple’s business records estimated the company's market share of the global video gaming market increased over time:
2015 with 18%;
2016 with either 21.8% or 23%;
2017 with either 24% or 27%;
2018 with 23.8%;
2019 with 23.9% or 25%;
2020 forecasted 24.7%-31%.
She then takes the 24% from 2017 and divides it by some other Apple internal docs that estimate mobile gaming accounts for 42% of all gaming. Voila. Some math. Apple's market share is 57%
She then takes some NewZoo estimates that AREN'T EVEN IN EVIDENCE but were a footnote in some internal report and does the same math for 2020, which again gives her 57%
(Tbh I sort of love the idea that she listened to literally a week of economists debating this and then just decided to do her own math)

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