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Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
@BjornLomborg
Sep 11, 2021 • 7 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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Global inequality is lower today than last 140 years

Ineq increase hugely in 1800s bc industrialized world pulls away

Ineq decline as poor world (China, India) starts gaining

Gini: 0=no ineq, 1= total ineq

New, amazing data from @PikettyLeMonde & co
wid.world/document/longr… Image
Income development 1820-2020:

In China, per person income dropped from 82% of world average in 1820 down to 20% in 1980, before rising to 109% in 2020

In Indonesia, it dropped from 57% in 1820 to 16% in 1950, up to 68% in 2020

wid.world/document/longr… Image
What drives global inequality?

Blue line shows domestic inequality: high, but lower in 1950s-80s

Orange line shows inequality between nations: increase dramatically after rich world industrialization, decline after 1980 as poor world is gaining again

wid.world/document/longr… Image
Who gained the most in the last 40 years of growth:

Much of the world's poor
The very richest

The relative losers were the lower and middle-classes in rich and middle-income countries (jobs outsourced)

wid.world/document/longr… Image
Who gained in income over the last 200 years?

Relatively: the world's top 30% (the first to industrialize, OECD)

Absolute: everyone got to be much, much better off — even the worst saw their incomes >5x

wid.world/document/longr… Image
Definition of global inequality treats entire world as one:

Just like inequality in, say, the US places all US individuals from lowest to highest income

Global inequality places all citizens from every nation from lowest to highest income

(see: gabriel-zucman.eu/files/teaching…)
It is a great data paper collating an immense amount of data to help us get a clearer view on incomes over the past 200 years

Cudos to Chancel & Piketty

(but take their 1800s industrialization powered by exploitation of 3rd world with grains of salt)

wid.world/document/longr…

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More from @BjornLomborg

Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
Oct 31
Spanish floods are tragic — as they are everywhere

But remember flood deaths down dramatically

Globally, floods now kill 5,400/year, down from 400,000/year in 1930s

Deaths from European floods down 7-fold to less than 100 per year today

nature.com/articles/s4146…Image
Despite breathless climate reporting,

not only are European floods causing fewer deaths (tweet above) but

Losses from floods in Europe are declining, not increasing

nature.com/articles/s4146…Image
Death from flooding declining (2nd row)

not only for rich countries but for poor countries

Deaths declining for almost all extreme weather for rich and poor

for flood, flash flood, coastal flood, cold and wind

and for all extreme weather

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…Image
Read 5 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
Sep 15
New study: Climate change saves 282,000 babies

Higher temperatures mean more heat, and more babies dying from heat

but it also means less cold, and many more babies not dying from cold

In total, higher temps saved 282,251 babies in 29 poorer countries from 2000-19

Did you read that anywhere?

nature.com/articles/s4146…Image
As we have come to expect from studies of heat and cold, they use unequal scales, which makes heat and cold look about the same

— they're not, as you can see on the right


nature.com/articles/s4146…

Image
The study is very explicit in pointing out that the change in extra heat deaths and fewer cold deaths is caused by climate change

nature.com/articles/s4146…
Image
Read 6 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
Sep 11
EU climate policy has enormous costs

Industry electricity prices have increased 70% in real terms since 2000

EU industries now pay 2.7x the electricity price in the US (and 1.9x in China)

EU households now pay 2x US electricity price (and 3.3x China)

iea.org/data-and-stati…Image
EU climate policy causes high electricity costs

Consequently, EU can afford much less electricity per person

In this century, the EU has managed to get access to almost as much electricity per person as the US got in 1968


iea.org/data-and-stati…
data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.P…Image
EU climate policy has enormous costs

Electricity prices for industry have increased 78% in real terms since 1978

EU industries now pay 2.5x the electricity price in the US (and 1.9x in China)

EU households pay 2x US electricity price (and 3.3x China)

iea.org/data-and-stati…Image
Read 5 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
Aug 30
Outrageously misleading climate scare from the UN

Today, 85% more old people die from heat

What they don't tell you:

There are now 86% more old people



un.org/sg/en/content/…
thelancet.com/journals/lance…
population.un.org/dataportal/
I write about this and many other heat scares from the UN in today's WSJ

wsj.com/opinion/united…
Here is UNICEF misinforming on heat
Image
Read 5 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
Aug 3
Fake news doesn't just come from foreign enemies

Friday, WHO claimed that 175,000 Europeans died from extreme heat

I pointed out that was untrue, almost 4x exaggerated

Saturday morning, WHO admitted this in the smallest possible way — they simply changed their website (and address) and had some online publications delete "extreme"

But, of course, by then the story had already made its intended impact across the world

WHO believes "Climate change is the greatest threat to global health in the 21st century" — which is just laughable and one of the reasons it was caught off-guard by Covid

This belief colors the 'findings' of WHO. In their Friday statement, the WHO Europe director explicitly worries about the "climate crisis" and expressed his support for climate action costing $1,000s of trillions (1.5oC target), so he obviously would like a dramatic and large number to make it around the world

Summary: WHO told us extreme heat kills 175K+, a number they've now admitted is almost 4x exaggerated. And they don't tell you that cold deaths at 657K are almost 4x bigger than all heat deaths. This is not informing you well

Journalists have to realize that when e.g. WHO says something, it also needs to be fact-checked

Friday claim:

Saturday update:

My tweet to ask for correction (which the director hasn't replied to):

The actual problem put in context:

WHO climate biggest challenge: web.archive.org/web/2024080206…
who.int/europe/news/it…


web.archive.org/web/2015100811…Image
WHO wrongly claimed that 175,000 Europeans die from extreme heat every year

This scary but wrong story got all the headlines

When called out, WHO acknowledged it by simply changing their website (and some online publications)

— but by then, all the scary stories had already had their impact

Friday claim:
Their update:

My tweet to ask for correction (which the director hasn't replied to):
The actual problem put in context: web.archive.org/web/2024080206…
who.int/europe/news/it…

Image
This is what WHO should tell you (because it is true):

Moderate cold is the biggest killer in Europe, followed by moderate heat, extreme cold, and only lastly by the smallest killer, extreme heat

But that doesn't fit the narrative

Image
Read 5 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
Jul 17
Another environmental scare debunked:

Acid rain killing all forests was the main environmental scare in the 1980s

A new half-century study shows acid rain doesn't kill trees

— actually, trees grow more with acid rain!

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…Image
Acid rain scare in the 1980s delivered full-on panic

No more so than in Germany, where papers claimed "the forest is dying," called it an "ecological Hiroshima" and claimed ‘‘the dying of the forests will have a greater impact on our country than World War II’’

All falseImage
The 1980s Acid Rain scare we know now was mostly false

New study: acid rain actually makes trees grow faster

Yet, a majority of Germans in 1985 believed "all forests will be dead by 2000" because of acid rain

We were misled


bibliothek.wzb.eu/pdf/1986/iiug-…
sauerlaender-verlag.com/CMS/uploads/me…Image
Read 7 tweets

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