#NorthKorea claims successful test launches of newly developed long-range cruise missile on 11 & 12 September
A reminder #NorthKorea publicly confirmed cruise missile development at the January 2021 8th Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK)
In Oct 2020 and again in Jan 2021 #NorthKorea paraded a new launchers which @IISS_org reported as reminiscent of a ground-launched land-attack cruise-missile system with a tubes considered too long and thin for SAM. iiss.org/blogs/military…
However the image #NorthKorea released shows a different launch vehicle and missile tubes to the suspected parade variant.
#NorthKorea claims a flight time of 7580seconds (2hr 6min 20sec) over 1500km figure 8 course in one test.
This equates to an average speed of 713kph/443mph - the actual cruise speed therefore will be slightly higher.
Let's not forget #NorthKorea technically already had cruise missiles - albeit a shorter range anti-ship system - the Kumsong-3 (KN-SS-N-2 Stormpetrel) based on the Soviet Kh-35
#NorthKorea Kumgsong-3 AShM turbofan or derivative - with embedded design and scoop air intake - would seem likely candidate to power its new cruise missile, taking into account size and performance variables coupled with greater fuel capacity.
"a long-range cruise missile could pose additional challenges for South Korea's missile defences"
"flight plan may be programmed to avoid defences or use terrain to reduce detection, but we still don't know exactly how the North Korean version navigates"
My latest #MilitaryBalance @IISS_org blog utilises @Maxar satellite imagery to identify new progress by North Korea 🇰🇵 in modifying an Il-76 transport aircraft, providing additional evidence that is intended to be an airborne early warning (AEW) platform. iiss.org/online-analysi…
1⃣. Satellite imagery by from 8 September 2024 shows the modifications on top of the fuselage uncovered for the first time with two convergent vertical struts consistent with a possible radar-dome mounting.
2⃣. Recent imagery also indicates North Korea has added ventral strakes to the Il-76
Similar aerodynamic strakes are a common feature on other Il-76 AEW conversions (🇷🇺🇨🇳🇮🇶) to improve flight characteristics and counteract effects of the large radar dome.
Given the trajectories, multiples and time spread I assess North Korea's KN-25 guided MRLS would be the most likely candidate, rather than a 'traditional' ballistic missile.
"A military source told Yonhap News Agency that the North appears to have test-fired a hypersonic missile, but the test is believed to have ended in failure after the missile flew some 250 kilometers." en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202405…
KN-25 600mm guided MRLS rather than a 'traditional' SRBM is most likely candidate given trajectory (less depressed than norm 50km apogee given approaching max range) and volume of projectiles.