Joseph Dempsey Profile picture
Sep 12, 2021 11 tweets 7 min read Read on X
#NorthKorea claims successful test launches of newly developed long-range cruise missile on 11 & 12 September Image
A reminder #NorthKorea publicly confirmed cruise missile development at the January 2021 8th Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) Image
In Oct 2020 and again in Jan 2021 #NorthKorea paraded a new launchers which @IISS_org reported as reminiscent of a ground-launched land-attack cruise-missile system with a tubes considered too long and thin for SAM. iiss.org/blogs/military… Image
However the image #NorthKorea released shows a different launch vehicle and missile tubes to the suspected parade variant. ImageImage
#NorthKorea claims a flight time of 7580seconds (2hr 6min 20sec) over 1500km figure 8 course in one test.

This equates to an average speed of 713kph/443mph - the actual cruise speed therefore will be slightly higher. Image
Let's not forget #NorthKorea technically already had cruise missiles - albeit a shorter range anti-ship system - the Kumsong-3 (KN-SS-N-2 Stormpetrel) based on the Soviet Kh-35 Image
#NorthKorea Kumgsong-3 AShM turbofan or derivative - with embedded design and scoop air intake - would seem likely candidate to power its new cruise missile, taking into account size and performance variables coupled with greater fuel capacity. ImageImage
Some additions thoughts for @nknewsorg on #NorthKorea new cruise missile

nknews.org/2021/09/north-… Image
"a long-range cruise missile could pose additional challenges for South Korea's missile defences"

"flight plan may be programmed to avoid defences or use terrain to reduce detection, but we still don't know exactly how the North Korean version navigates"

bbc.co.uk/news/world-asi…
Blog Alert🚨:
The challenges of a #NorthKorea land attack cruise missile (LACM) with my @IISS_org colleague @Wright_T_J iiss.org/blogs/analysis…
#NorthKorea cruise missile at October Defence Exhibition Image

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More from @JosephHDempsey

Apr 9
My latest @IISS_org Military Balance blog coauthored with Douglas Barrie uses @Maxar satellite imagery to confirm that Algeria has emerged as an unexpected recipient of Egypt’s long-grounded Sukhoi Su-35 Flanker M aircraft order from Russia.
iiss.org/online-analysi…
Satellite imagery of Komsomolsk-on-Amur, Russia on 2 March shows a Russian Air Force An-124 loading the fuselage section of an Egyptian paint scheme Su-35. A similarly marked An-124 was seen an Ain Beida/Oum el Bouaghi Air Base in Algeria on 5 March. Image
The first known commercial satellite image of an Su-35 in Algeria was captured on shortly after on 10 March at the same airbase, the distinct Algerian Air Force green and white roundel visible on the port wing.
This image is also now available on @googleearth (35.876719,7.271345) Image
Read 4 tweets
Jan 17
My latest @IISS_org Military Balance blog revisits North Korea's Nampo shipyard following state media imagery confirming my previous suspicion North Korea is building its largest-ever warship there.
On 29 December 2024, KCTV aired a report that included four still images showing President Kim Jong-un inspecting a new naval vessel under construction.

The images released by KCTV capture at least two [in retrospect three] separate visits in recent months Image
Image
Image
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Though unstated the location was readily identifiable as Nampo shipyard, having featured in my Oct 2024 @IISS_org Military Balance blog highlighted an unusual structure emerging around the assembly of an unidentified vessel

My previous assessment here: go.iiss.org/40qnynGImage
Read 21 tweets
Jan 6
North Korea claim successful test of new type of Intermediate-range Hypersonic Glide Vehicle (HGV) Image
Image
Launch of North Korea claimed new type HGV geolocated to 39.191350, 125.957236
Image
North Korea redeveloped this site around 6 months ago in similar garden style to the nearby Hwasong-18/19 launch site. Despite appearances of 'unprepared' launch sites satellite imagery also indicates hard standing was laid prior to turf to support the heavy launcher Image
Read 4 tweets
Nov 4, 2024
North Korea launch suspected ballistic missile
The timing of North Korea's launch on the eve of the US elections is unlikely coincidental.

While it may be timed to make a undiplomatic point, there may still be an underlying developmental dimension depending on the ballistic missile system tested.

Japan MoD data on North Korea launch of 'multiple' ballistic missiles.

🕢07:30 - 07:39 5 Nov 2024 (GMT+9)
▶️~400km
🔼~100km

mod.go.jp/j/press/news/2…Image
Read 4 tweets
Sep 17, 2024
North Korea launches suspected ballistic missile according to South Korea (JCS) and Japan (MoD)

A single missile could likely indicate a
medium-long range system or something novel like a HGV test.

m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202407…
Both South Korea (JCS) and Japan (MoD) subsequently clarifying 'multiple' ballistic missile were launched by North Korea

🕖~06:50 (🇰🇷) / 06:53 & 07:23 (🇯🇵)
▶️~400km (🇰🇷)
🔼 No data
🗺️Launch from Kaechon area, North of Pyongyang (🇰🇷)

A few belated thoughts on North Korea's launch of "new-type tactical ballistic missile Hwasong-11-Da-4.5 and an improved strategic cruise missile"...
Image
Image
Read 6 tweets
Sep 17, 2024
My latest #MilitaryBalance @IISS_org blog utilises @Maxar satellite imagery to identify new progress by North Korea 🇰🇵 in modifying an Il-76 transport aircraft, providing additional evidence that is intended to be an airborne early warning (AEW) platform.
iiss.org/online-analysi…
1⃣. Satellite imagery by from 8 September 2024 shows the modifications on top of the fuselage uncovered for the first time with two convergent vertical struts consistent with a possible radar-dome mounting.
Image
2⃣. Recent imagery also indicates North Korea has added ventral strakes to the Il-76
Similar aerodynamic strakes are a common feature on other Il-76 AEW conversions (🇷🇺🇨🇳🇮🇶) to improve flight characteristics and counteract effects of the large radar dome. Image
Read 8 tweets

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