Joseph Dempsey Profile picture
Sep 12, 2021 11 tweets 7 min read Read on X
#NorthKorea claims successful test launches of newly developed long-range cruise missile on 11 & 12 September Image
A reminder #NorthKorea publicly confirmed cruise missile development at the January 2021 8th Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) Image
In Oct 2020 and again in Jan 2021 #NorthKorea paraded a new launchers which @IISS_org reported as reminiscent of a ground-launched land-attack cruise-missile system with a tubes considered too long and thin for SAM. iiss.org/blogs/military… Image
However the image #NorthKorea released shows a different launch vehicle and missile tubes to the suspected parade variant. ImageImage
#NorthKorea claims a flight time of 7580seconds (2hr 6min 20sec) over 1500km figure 8 course in one test.

This equates to an average speed of 713kph/443mph - the actual cruise speed therefore will be slightly higher. Image
Let's not forget #NorthKorea technically already had cruise missiles - albeit a shorter range anti-ship system - the Kumsong-3 (KN-SS-N-2 Stormpetrel) based on the Soviet Kh-35 Image
#NorthKorea Kumgsong-3 AShM turbofan or derivative - with embedded design and scoop air intake - would seem likely candidate to power its new cruise missile, taking into account size and performance variables coupled with greater fuel capacity. ImageImage
Some additions thoughts for @nknewsorg on #NorthKorea new cruise missile

nknews.org/2021/09/north-… Image
"a long-range cruise missile could pose additional challenges for South Korea's missile defences"

"flight plan may be programmed to avoid defences or use terrain to reduce detection, but we still don't know exactly how the North Korean version navigates"

bbc.co.uk/news/world-asi…
Blog Alert🚨:
The challenges of a #NorthKorea land attack cruise missile (LACM) with my @IISS_org colleague @Wright_T_J iiss.org/blogs/analysis…
#NorthKorea cruise missile at October Defence Exhibition Image

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More from @JosephHDempsey

Sep 17
North Korea launches suspected ballistic missile according to South Korea (JCS) and Japan (MoD)

A single missile could likely indicate a
medium-long range system or something novel like a HGV test.

m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202407…
Both South Korea (JCS) and Japan (MoD) subsequently clarifying 'multiple' ballistic missile were launched by North Korea

🕖~06:50 (🇰🇷) / 06:53 & 07:23 (🇯🇵)
▶️~400km (🇰🇷)
🔼 No data
🗺️Launch from Kaechon area, North of Pyongyang (🇰🇷)

A few belated thoughts on North Korea's launch of "new-type tactical ballistic missile Hwasong-11-Da-4.5 and an improved strategic cruise missile"...
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Read 6 tweets
Sep 17
My latest #MilitaryBalance @IISS_org blog utilises @Maxar satellite imagery to identify new progress by North Korea 🇰🇵 in modifying an Il-76 transport aircraft, providing additional evidence that is intended to be an airborne early warning (AEW) platform.
iiss.org/online-analysi…
1⃣. Satellite imagery by from 8 September 2024 shows the modifications on top of the fuselage uncovered for the first time with two convergent vertical struts consistent with a possible radar-dome mounting.

Image
2⃣. Recent imagery also indicates North Korea has added ventral strakes to the Il-76
Similar aerodynamic strakes are a common feature on other Il-76 AEW conversions (🇷🇺🇨🇳🇮🇶) to improve flight characteristics and counteract effects of the large radar dome. Image
Read 6 tweets
Sep 12
North Korea launched "multiple ballistic missiles" this morning according to Japan MoD

🕖 07:10 - 07:14 (GMT+9)
▶️>350km
🔼~100km

mod.go.jp/j/press/news/2…
Image
Given the trajectories, multiples and time spread I assess North Korea's KN-25 guided MRLS would be the most likely candidate, rather than a 'traditional' ballistic missile.

Image
North Korea confirm KN-25 launches, albeit with new 6 tube launcher.





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Read 4 tweets
Jun 25
Possible North Korea missile launch reported by Japan MoD.
North Korea ballistic missile launch confirmed by South Korea JCS

yna.co.kr/view/AKR202406…
"A military source told Yonhap News Agency that the North appears to have test-fired a hypersonic missile, but the test is believed to have ended in failure after the missile flew some 250 kilometers."
en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202405…
Read 4 tweets
May 30
North Korea🇰🇵 launched "multiple ballistic missile" from Pyongyang's Sunan area.

🕕 06:13
▶️>350km
🔼~100km

Source: mod.go.jp/j/press/news/2…
Image
"around 10 short-range ballistic missiles" according to ROK JCS
en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202405…
KN-25 600mm guided MRLS rather than a 'traditional' SRBM is most likely candidate given trajectory (less depressed than norm 50km apogee given approaching max range) and volume of projectiles.


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Read 7 tweets
Apr 1
North Korea launched suspected ballistic missile.
North Korea presumed to have launched an IRBM from Pyongyang region at 06:53 (GMT+9) according to South Korea JCS en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202404…
Initial North Korea ballistic missile launch trajectory data:

🕖06:52 (GMT+9)
▶️~650km
🔼~100km


Image
Read 6 tweets

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