Belichick vs Wilson who looked flustered and anxious vs a weak CAR defense. Disagree with NE not being upgraded after seeing that Mac can work within this offense. Great secondary in MIA to now a bottom 5 in NYJ (Darnold 8.0 ypa!) It just feels short.
🏈LA Chargers -3 (-110)
Trust in Staley. LAC 62% pass vs a tough WFT DEF. LAC OL improved, allowed pressure just 12% of drops. LAC goes from one of the best DEF to a horrendous DAL DEF unit. Do we really upgrade DAL after TNF? Lost badly in YPP, YPA & YPR despite +3 TO's.
🏈Minnesota +4.5 (-115)
Sigh. ARZ goes from +3 @ TEN to -4.5 vs MIN. That's a huge gap between MIN/TEN I don't agree with. ARZ looked terrific, but played a terrible TEN DEF. Locker room issues brewing, but Zimmer still a terrific defensive game planner. Too big an adjustment.
🏈 Tennessee +6 (-116)
Sigh. SEA is loaded and the TEN defense is atrocious. However, as bad as TEN looked with Downing, at +6 this is the second biggest number ever laid against TEN w Tannehill and co. I don't believe the SEA DEF (just as bad) warrants a number this big.
🏈 Green Bay -11 (-110)
DET allowed 8.0 (!) yards per play and 11.5 yards per pass the 49ers. With the Okudah injury, Amani Oruwariye steps in as top corner. DET relying on rookies for depth beyond. Why expect anything different vs GB OFF? Same price as SF with HFA adjusted.
🏈 Logan Thomas o46.5 rec yards
Heinicke loves throwing at TEs & big targets. Went to Thomas/Sims 5 of 12 non RB targets vs LAC and 22/36 non RB targets vs TB. Total for Thomas same as last week despite the QB change. NYG allowed more targets to TE Fant in Wk1 than any WR. Over.
🏈Mike Williams o53.5 rec yards
Diggs can't cover both Allen/Williams. Last week Diggs was on the #1 WR (Evans) for 39/47 routes. Betting he takes Allen on Sunday and Williams runs free. Usage for Williams way up in game one under Stale, as was pass rate. Great H2H quote too...
🏈 Cleveland -12.5 (-110)
Laying another big number, hurts, but I just have to do it. Ratings make the game north of 14. I think we might get there anyway. HOU got a gift in a unprepared JAX team in Week 1. Couldn't be more different this week at CLE. Two different leagues here.
🏈 Jared Goff o0.5 INT’s (-178)
Just going to keep betting it. We will see if we get a 1.5 at some point. Big underdog, will be playing from behind and throwing lots, GB have great DB’s. Best WR Williams likely out. Struggles vs pressure. Same thing, another week w/o McVay.
🏈Buffalo o26.5 (-110)
BUF lives in 3 WR sets MIA lives in man. Allen success vs MIA not fluke, he kills their coverage. Heck, Mac w nobody killed MIA from 3 WR vs man last wk. With Davis out, MIA will struggle getting pressure rushing 4, tough for Flores to switch out. Over.
🏈Marquez Valdes-Scantling o38.5 rec yds
Rodgers vs two rookie CB's for DET. Those rookies will line up on WR2 and in the slot for DET expected to play "expanded roles". Rodgers stating the obvious, but we have seen him kill rookie DB's. MVS down from 46 yds last to 38 this wk.
🏈 Carolina Panthers +3.5 (-115)
Injuries piled up in a hurry for the Saints. Panthers get through the week with a clean report. Likely a lower scoring game, but might be too strong an over reaction to week one to lay more than a FG on the road in division.
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What is the $10 to $10,000 sports betting challenge?
A thread on why is this trend has become so popular (again) but also why it is teaching new bettors all of the wrong habits, setting them up to lose long term and encouraging problem gambling.
🧵Tap to read more...
1. For those unaware, the $10 to $10,000 sports betting challenge is a rollover or reverse martingale content series. Bettors begin with $10 and try double their winnings 10 times in 10 days to end up with $10,000. The bets each day are primarily SGP's on alternate prop odds.
2. Between Twitter, TikTok and YouTube, the challenge video series draw tens of thousands of views and subscribers daily and have built some of the biggest networks and channels in the entire industry within a very short time frame. People LOVE this type of content.
Most bettors have nothing but bad things to say about sportsbooks - even though we use them every day.
What most recreational bettors fail to realize is that you can create your own sportsbook, and benefit from it each bet.
Here is a thread explaining how…
1. As with all my tweets, there are nuances at the professional level to which this can change. The goal here is to get people thinking about things in a better way. The descriptions here apply for MLB but can be used for all sports and markets.
2. The implied hold/margin is the way you determine the quality of odds and what a sportsbook has priced into their market. I’m Canadian so for this example I’ll say margin but you can interchange the words as you wish if you prefer one or the other.
The "Cash Out or Not?" trend is sweeping social media.
Unfortunately, people love to talk about this - much more so than they love to understand basic math and betting principles.
Here is a thread explaining why "Cash Out" is a terrible choice, 99% of the time.
Tap to read 👇
The premise of cash out is built on the same one that fueled the popularity behind "Deal or No Deal" in the mid 2000's.
The cash out dilemma fits the players happiness of having something guaranteed now, vs their regret of potentially having nothing - at the expense of value.
Think about Deal or No Deal.
If the player had two cases left [$1] and [$1M], their value is $500K. But the offer may come in at $375k. This is the test.
$375K is WAY more than $1 - and it's guaranteed!
Many would ignore what they are worth to avoid what they may lose.
The NFL Draft is a great example of why all bettors must have multiple sportsbooks. Price shopping is key, but it is important to understand how much vig is priced into the one way markets before blindly betting price differences.
Here is a thread with some thoughts.
This morning a sportsbook has Green Bay to draft an offensive player with their first pick at -160. It is easy to look at other sportsbooks and see Green Bay is listed at -140 to draft a WR and +430 to draft an OL (two OFF positions). So is the -140 a good bet? Remove the vig.
Here are the odds at FanDuel
WR -140
DL +430
OL +430
LB +750
CB +900
S +1100
The vig/margin is the sum of all implied probabilities (126.3%) the amount above 100% is the vig priced in - 26.3%. The standard way to remove margin is divide the implied probability by the margin.
When I was 23 I started a "Bush Play Whe" operation with a partner in Tobago. It was a back door lottery which piggy backed the government game - but paid out more.
The things we did to advertise and how US Sportsbook are now advertising is all too familiar...
Thread below...
Important to know a little bit of background on Play Whe. The game is ingrained in the Trinidadian culture. Players pick a number between 1 and 36 for four different draws per day which are carried out on national television. Each of the 36 numbers corresponds to a symbol...
Bettors within the country are encouraged to "play their mark (another word for a number/symbol)" based off of dreams, daily occurrences and basically anything that happens in life. There are authors within the country that write books about what things mean - like astrology...