Thread of NFL Week 2 bets and mini write-ups.

Thread will be updated throughout the week.

Tap to expand to scroll down and read...
🏈 New England -3.5 (-110)

Belichick vs Wilson who looked flustered and anxious vs a weak CAR defense. Disagree with NE not being upgraded after seeing that Mac can work within this offense. Great secondary in MIA to now a bottom 5 in NYJ (Darnold 8.0 ypa!) It just feels short.
🏈LA Chargers -3 (-110)

Trust in Staley. LAC 62% pass vs a tough WFT DEF. LAC OL improved, allowed pressure just 12% of drops. LAC goes from one of the best DEF to a horrendous DAL DEF unit. Do we really upgrade DAL after TNF? Lost badly in YPP, YPA & YPR despite +3 TO's.
🏈Minnesota +4.5 (-115)

Sigh. ARZ goes from +3 @ TEN to -4.5 vs MIN. That's a huge gap between MIN/TEN I don't agree with. ARZ looked terrific, but played a terrible TEN DEF. Locker room issues brewing, but Zimmer still a terrific defensive game planner. Too big an adjustment.
🏈 Tennessee +6 (-116)

Sigh. SEA is loaded and the TEN defense is atrocious. However, as bad as TEN looked with Downing, at +6 this is the second biggest number ever laid against TEN w Tannehill and co. I don't believe the SEA DEF (just as bad) warrants a number this big.
🏈 Green Bay -11 (-110)

DET allowed 8.0 (!) yards per play and 11.5 yards per pass the 49ers. With the Okudah injury, Amani Oruwariye steps in as top corner. DET relying on rookies for depth beyond. Why expect anything different vs GB OFF? Same price as SF with HFA adjusted.
🏈 Logan Thomas o46.5 rec yards

Heinicke loves throwing at TEs & big targets. Went to Thomas/Sims 5 of 12 non RB targets vs LAC and 22/36 non RB targets vs TB. Total for Thomas same as last week despite the QB change. NYG allowed more targets to TE Fant in Wk1 than any WR. Over.
🏈Mike Williams o53.5 rec yards

Diggs can't cover both Allen/Williams. Last week Diggs was on the #1 WR (Evans) for 39/47 routes. Betting he takes Allen on Sunday and Williams runs free. Usage for Williams way up in game one under Stale, as was pass rate. Great H2H quote too... Image
🏈 Cleveland -12.5 (-110)

Laying another big number, hurts, but I just have to do it. Ratings make the game north of 14. I think we might get there anyway. HOU got a gift in a unprepared JAX team in Week 1. Couldn't be more different this week at CLE. Two different leagues here.
🏈 Jared Goff o0.5 INT’s (-178)

Just going to keep betting it. We will see if we get a 1.5 at some point. Big underdog, will be playing from behind and throwing lots, GB have great DB’s. Best WR Williams likely out. Struggles vs pressure. Same thing, another week w/o McVay.
🏈Buffalo o26.5 (-110)

BUF lives in 3 WR sets MIA lives in man. Allen success vs MIA not fluke, he kills their coverage. Heck, Mac w nobody killed MIA from 3 WR vs man last wk. With Davis out, MIA will struggle getting pressure rushing 4, tough for Flores to switch out. Over.
🏈Marquez Valdes-Scantling o38.5 rec yds

Rodgers vs two rookie CB's for DET. Those rookies will line up on WR2 and in the slot for DET expected to play "expanded roles". Rodgers stating the obvious, but we have seen him kill rookie DB's. MVS down from 46 yds last to 38 this wk. Image
🏈 Carolina Panthers +3.5 (-115)

Injuries piled up in a hurry for the Saints. Panthers get through the week with a clean report. Likely a lower scoring game, but might be too strong an over reaction to week one to lay more than a FG on the road in division.

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More from @adamchernoff

8 Sep
Basic strategy (wong) teasers carry the bulk of the discussion during NFL season - and rightfully so. But how many people are sleeping on teasing teams that are -6.5 down to -0.5? Here is a quick explanation of why (sometimes) it is a much better bet than you might think...
Week 1 is a good example as we have two 6.5 point favorites at home (Kansas City and Buffalo). Here are the current prices at for the spread and moneyline.

Buffalo -6.5 and -275
Kansas City -6.5 and -275
If you were to parlay the Bills and Chiefs on the moneyline at odds of -275 and -275, here is the math:

1.36 * 1.36 = 1.849 or odds of -118 (risking $118 to win $100).

If you are playing the same teaser you are getting both teams at -0.5 for odds of -110. 1.6% better.
Read 6 tweets
7 Sep
Thread of NFL Week 1 bets and write-ups based on the Tuesday morning segment with @MitchMossRadio and @PaulyHoward on @VSiNLive.

Thread will be updated throughout the week.

Tap to expand to scroll down and read...
🏈 SF -7.5 (-110)

Shanahan vs Campbell/Lynn with 12+ weeks of prep. Goff now without McVay helping him (look at his '16 numbers!) vs the depth of the 49ers pass rush. Huge number on the road but a big mismatch. IMO reminiscent of BAL @ MIA in Week 1 2019.
🏈 SEA -145 & o49 (-110)

Seattle to see a big pace uptick from 2020. New OC Waldron has been implementing up-tempo passing game all camp/preseason. Wilson full control of call at line. Great DEF game planning coach in Gannon out from IND. SEA DEF horrible in coverage. Points.
Read 10 tweets
11 Aug
Any NFL bettor can make (a fairly decent) total on their own with a pen, paper and seven basic stats.

Will this allow you to beat the books? Probably not. But it will answer questions and serve as a simple, basic place to begin making totals.

Here is a thread on how it works...
These are the seven statistics that you need to use. The goal of this "exercise" is to ultimately weight the output numbers of each team to the opponent allowance and then adjust for pace and pass rate.
Start by getting the defensive numbers for each team and organize by yards per rush allowed and yards per pass allowed.
Read 11 tweets
9 Aug
The easiest way for most bettors to create NFL Power Rankings explained in a thread. (Key words in that sentence are "easiest" and "most bettors".)

The 0-100 method begins as it sounds, take a piece of paper and draw a line with 0 on one side and 100 on another. Image
0 = the worst team in NFL history
100 = the best team in NFL history

Plot four teams on the 0-100 scale based on how you feel about the team. Examples included...

Best: (KC 90)
Worst: (HOU 15)
Avg or Worse: (LAC 40)
Avg or Better: (TEN 60) Image
Continue to add teams in as you go. It is easiest to work from left to right. Just keep asking if the team you are rating is better or worse than each team on the plot. Once the answer is no, that is where the team should be plotted. Work through the league. Image
Read 10 tweets
27 Nov 19
On @YouBetterYouBet tonight, @JoeO670 told me that this week is the most popular download week of the year for podcasts. On that note, I thought I would share some of my favourite betting shows that I listen to each week for those travelling. Thread below 👇
More X's and O's focused than betting, but @CSimmsQB is able to talk about football in a way that everyone can understand. Every episode I learn a ton and high recommend it for those wanting to understand more about the game.…
No brainer here. @AndyMSFW and @whale_capper have an incredible way of talking about betting and making it feel like you are in the room with them. The improvement and growth of the show the past three years is extremely well deserved. Easy sub for all.…
Read 8 tweets
24 Oct 19
I learned a simple way to calculate a baseline for NFL totals during my first bookmaking job almost a decade ago. I still use it today to spot numbers on the board at open which may be too low or too high. I thought I would explain today in a thread below to offer some value. 👇
The most important thing I learned to think about was how teams are affected by their opponent. Rather than thinking “what can these teams do together” to bet a total, I think, “does this opponent increase or decrease the likelihood of success in the matchup”. In order to do...
this, I like to look back at how a team has made their opponents better or worse this season. I set up my paper with the defences in question and list out opponents and their yards per play/rush attempt for the entire season against all opponents. The second temp is taking the...
Read 16 tweets

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