Thread by @kevinmcld

@DudeeeeeeNick @nils_gilman @Vinncent boiling water is non-linear. in folk psychology you see this as cause and effect, but when you look at the complexity of this, or actions, it's technically correlation
tasks.illustrativemathematics.org/content-standa…

@DudeeeeeeNick @nils_gilman @Vinncent same in history, no cause and effect, we see correlation, how to invade Iraq? simple statistical probabilities:

(1998-2000)
3 years x 40-50/year = 120-150 meetings on terrorism at Cabinet level in Clinton admin.

(2001)
1 meeting on terrorism at Cabinet in Bush admin.

@DudeeeeeeNick @nils_gilman @Vinncent at a certain point summer of 2001, a certain class of people, the upper echelon, change their behavior to adapt counter intuitively to the above, impossible to be arbitrary statistical shift.
cbsnews.com/news/ashcroft-…

@DudeeeeeeNick @nils_gilman @Vinncent by 9/11, even the generals have adapted to insider info: "the state of alert had been high during the past two weeks, and a particularly urgent warning may have been received the night before the attacks, causing some top Pentagon brass to cancel a trip."
newsweek.com/weve-hit-targe…

@DudeeeeeeNick @nils_gilman @Vinncent The big questions: if Ashcroft and the upper ranks of the Pentagon knew not to fly commercial aviation during late Summer 2001, who else knew, and why did the general public not know? That's a problem in a society where our tax dollars pay these peoples' salaries. That's corrupt.

@DudeeeeeeNick @nils_gilman @Vinncent In a rational society, Bush should have been impeached simply for dereliction of duty while his close underlings exhibited behaviors that demonstrated clear foreknowledge of an attack. We don't need to accuse Bush of any conspiracy, this is simply an examinable analytic event.

@DudeeeeeeNick @nils_gilman @Vinncent History is uniquely blind to the above events, simply because it requires intent states. It needs to assign meaning to a human decision, but all complex events are invisible to that diffuse level of scrutiny. Only a scientific episodic-analytic method reveals events in timelines.