Thread by @therealarod1984

9/13 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

1) Hospitalizations with a strong decline today
2) Cases- chance of new peak tomorrow, likely last possible new peak date
3) Pos% & testing have flattened thru 1st week of Sep
4) Fatality breakdown on 46 reported

1/n
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https://twitter.com/therealarod1984/status/1437099940694614017

9/13 Indicators

* Total positivity rate as of 9/5 at 13.41%. It has flattened out into first of Sep as of right now
* Testing new high of 1.075 Million tests per week on 9/3
* Rate of growth still all near 0 or decline
* Covidestim Rt declines to 0.69!!

2/n
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9/13 Cases

* 8.1K Cases reported, vs 2.6K last Labor
* Case 7DMA WoW down 3%
* Peak is 9/5
* If 14.7K cases tomorrow, new peak will be set. Which is nuts since Hospitalizations peaked end of August. Its a factor of massive testing and case reporting antiquity
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3/n

9/13 Hospitalizations

* -165 to 13065. Last Mon was -187
* Single Day Peak is 8/25 - 13932
* 7DMA Rate of Decline at -3.0%
* ICU finally starting some stronger declines off peak
* Starting to stack good days together

4/n
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9/13 - Hosp Covid Admits

* Statewide Admits down 143 from last Mon. 7DMA down 241 from peak on 8/23
* 7DMA Rate of Decline of 8.2% Week over Week
* SETRAC 7DMAs down a very strong 13.6% WoW. TMC down 10.9%
* Admits look great. Means big drops coming for Census

5/n

9/13 Fatalities Part 1:

* Primer in 8/n
* 2021 thru 8/22, 2020 thru 7/22, waves 13 mo apart
* Fatalities thru above:
* 2020 - 6096, 248 7DMA
* 2021 - 4936, 224 7DMA
* Despite WAY higher hosps at this point in the wave, fatalities running ~19% lower than 2020.

6/n
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9/13 Fatalities Part 2

* 166 Reported yesterday +12 from Last Sun
* 46 Reported today, -7 from Last Mon
* #Flat
* Two more big reports coming tomorrow and Wed
* New projections on Wednesday
* With Hosp peak at end of Aug, I'm predicting reporting peak this week

7/n
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9/13 - Fatalities Primer

8/n
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https://twitter.com/therealarod1984/status/1435794084040413188?s=20

9/13 Conclusion

* Probably my last week of tracking testing and leading indicators. Likely cases too. Maybe only 1-2 times a week.
* Will follow hospitalizations for a little while longer, and of course fatalities. Then its break time. I'm ready for one.

9/end