Thread by @therealarod1984

9/14 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

1) New & likely final Case peak
2) Hospitalizations continue to drop
3) Pos% & testing hit Labor Day decline
4) Fatality breakdown on 296 reported

1/n
.

https://twitter.com/therealarod1984/status/1437506600986677254

9/14 Indicators

* Total positivity rate as of 9/6 at 13.14%.
* Testing hits Labor Day wall, with big decline, and doubtful it comes back to same rate. 100K+ tests taken right out of the 7DMA on a single day.
* Covidestim Rt up from 0.69 to 0.74

2/n
.

9/14 Cases

* New Case Peak 9/14
* 17.3K Cases reported, vs 6.0K last Tues
* Case 7DMA WoW up 31%. Literally all over the place
* This should be the final peak. With Labor Day impacting testing numbers, and huge comps coming up, should not be seeing another new peak set

3/n
.

9/14 Hospitalizations

* -92 to 12973. Last Tues was -46
* Lowest Census since 8/20
* Single Day Peak is 8/25 - 13932
* 7DMA Rate of Decline at -3.2%
* Expect some big drops starting Friday-Saturday

4/n
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9/14 - Hosp Covid Admits

* Statewide Admits down 117 from last Tues. 7DMA down 258 from peak on 8/23
* Statewide 7DMA Rate of Decline of 8.6% Week over Week
* SETRAC 7DMA down a strong 12.7% WoW. TMC down 12.5%
* Admits look great. Means big drops coming for Census

5/n
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9/14 Fatalities Part 1:

* Primer in 8/n
* 2021 thru 8/23, 2020 thru 7/23, waves 13 mo apart
* Fatalities thru above:
* 2020 - 6377, 252 7DMA
* 2021 - 5208, 231 7DMA
* Despite WAY higher hosps at this point in the wave, fatalities running ~18% lower than 2020.

6/n
.

9/14 Fatalities Part 2

* 296 Reported. +168 from Last Tuesday's post Labor Day down reporting
* Another big report tomorrow, but high for the wave is 408 Last Thursday
* New projections tomorrow
* Majority of reporting is already post-hospitalization peak (1-2 weeks)

7/n
.

9/14 - Fatalities Primer

8/n
.

https://twitter.com/therealarod1984/status/1435794084040413188?s=20

9/14 Conclusion

* Good riddance testing and cases. What a fiasco.
* Hospitalizations should really start declining now
* Fatality reporting peaks as soon as tomorrow, for sure by the end of the week. We are too far past actual fatality peak / hospitalization peak now.

9/end