Thread by @mattsheffield

Now that the #CARecall has collapsed and Larry Elder has lost overwhelmingly, let's talk about the history and future of CA Republicans (1/n)

First thing to remember is that like all Western states, California was historically Republican. This was true all the way through most of the 20th century. The only two presidents from CA were GOP, Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan.

The future looks bleak for CA Republicans but it has been visible for decades, beginning in the 1990s when the state GOP ran ad campaigns trying to hit typical right wing fear campaigns of religion and immigration. They backfired though and actually drove voters away.

The far-right backed Proposition 187 of 1994, which sought to deny state services to unauthorized immigrants, has been cited as the cause of this shift, but that's not fully true. White voters in CA shifted to the Dems and are the biggest reason the GOP here is weak.

This is an important point to realize because it shows that right wing claims about Hispanic & Asian immigrants dooming GOPers are false.

It's the Christian supremacism that people here in CA dislike the most about the GOP, along with its callous approach to race and poverty

Arnold Schwarzenegger offered CA Republicans a lifeline when he won the 2003 recall and reelection in 2006 as a moderate. Under domination by far-right Christian nationalists, they rejected his winning message and have been shut out of statewide offices since 2010.

Despite 10 years of losses, CA Republicans have refused to change their program to respond to voters. In the process, they've shrunk and become even more radicalized.

The 2021 recall effort was a last-ditch effort by the Christian right here to win rightwingwatch.org/post/californi…

Paradoxically, adding Larry Elder to the recall ballot seems to have motivated both Republicans and Democrats. With no easy leader, it was hard for both parties to rally their voters.

On net though, I'd say Elder cost the GOP more than he helped.

But he's not going anywhere.

We'll see if Elder is able to separate suckers from their money with lies about vote fraud.

It's possible that some may be able to see his claims as the obvious falsehoods that they are.

But then again, this is the vaccine paranoia party so perhaps unlikely.

One last thing to consider is that I think that the CA "jungle primary" where candidates of all parties compete on a single ballot has also defanged the right here because it's allowed further left voices greater access, thereby shifting the center to the left.

If you're a person on the left who likes third parties, this gives a real chance to show your real preference, w/o having a risk of a "greater of two evils" winning.

If you're a DSA type, this is state-level reform you should be pushing for. Not protest presidential candidates.

Blanket primaries are also good for center-left people because they also shut out the tiny percentage of right-wing cranks that bully moderate Republicans.

Just a few late night thoughts. Thanks for listening! /end