Thread by @robfordmancs

This is puzzling - Labour ShadCab agreeing the election came the week after the SNP (&LDs) announced their intention to table an early election bill via a front page splash in the Observer

https://twitter.com/dralanwager/status/1438066120506937346

Did the SNP intend to withdraw their support for an early election so soon after very publicly backing it? In which case what was the purpose of the early election bill & front page announcement?

If this was always meant as w feint, why did they not communicate this to Labour earlier? Did they not think their Early Election bill, which shifted the votes needed from two thirds to a simple majority, would impact on Labour’s thinking?

Even on the day: if SNP knew Lab had a ShadCab that day it wasn’t a massive reach to realise their early elec bill would be on the agenda. If they knew that (a) they were meeting later and (b) outcome was in doubt despite previous public statements, wouldn’t they signal this?

Here’s the Observer article - they lead with the LDs support but SNP’s Ian Blackford backs the plan on the record in the article - “have an election as early as possible”

google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theg…

Here’s the Guardian write-up of Labour’s decision to back the election - comes two days after the weekend SNP/LD early election bill announced and extensively cites this as a factor in Labour’s change of stance google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theg…

Now this was a v chaotic period all round. But it seems odd to me to table an early election bill which would enable Cons to get an election *without* Lab votes, then claim to be taken by surprise when this initiative changed Labour’s stance

For Labour, being seen to be dragged into an election against their will was the worst of all worlds, as they had been saying all year that an election was their preferred means to break the deadlock. And it was the SNP/LD bill which made that a major risk for Labour

I think the story of how the 2019 election came to be has rather fallen victim to the "Rashomon effect" - different witnesses to a confusing, fast moving, high sakes event recall it in different ways, reflecting differences in what they knew & believed en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rashomon_…

A good thing, therefore, that an analysis will soon be available from one of Britain's most acute observers of Westminster politics - @philipjcowley - in our forthcoming book "The British General Election of 2019" amazon.co.uk/British-Genera…