Substantive? Ok your book is full of nonsense. The BS does a good job of ELI5'ing basic concepts like hard money, time preference, etc. but then it's also full of some spectacularly dumb claims & complete gibberish about how Bitcoin's security works. 1/

And when I say complete gibberish, I mean complete gibberish. This is so far from being correct it's ridiculous:

Nonsense written in a book is still nonsense. Personal highlight is when you say that sound money explains why Michelangelo did such a good job on the Sistine Chapel.


Economics is fuzzy in a way that means untested belief systems can grow indefinitely. In the absence of feedback about errors you can get away with unrigorous bullshit forever. Especially if you're good with words. 4/
If your web of ideas is internally consistent, you can sound smart and compelling and riff endlessly, speaking eloquently, fast, with high conviction, etc. 5/
You can convince lots of people that way, if they don't know how to make sense of it either. Like the executive chairman of @NYDIG_BTC, for example. 6/

But this is engineering - there are in fact right and wrong answers, and what you wrote in your book is cartoonishly wrong. 7/
If after studying it to death you can't make sense of the economics of a relatively simple, deterministic system like Bitcoin, where errors are easily verifiable, why should anyone trust the way you make sense of the economics of the world, which is a far more complex domain? 8/8

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More from @joekelly100

30 Aug
Bitcoin's transaction fees are not fine. Outside of short-lived speculative frenzies, blocks aren't full and total miner revenue from fees is in the $100s-of-thousands per day. 1/
In other words, at current usage levels, the BTC system is on a predictable path to eventual security failure (incentive incompatibility / economic instability) given the exponentially decaying block subsidy. Number go sideways from here = no bueno. 2/
In the short term, number must go up (NmgU). Or better, number geometrically must increase (ngmi).

Eventually, transaction volume must go up too, a lot, which likely requires very significant usage as an everyday medium of exchange. 3/
Read 7 tweets
26 Jun
I'd say @nntaleb's bitcoin paper is directionally correct, even if it's not 100% mechanically accurate. 1/n


In other words, despite some errors and not getting all the way to the bottom of things, if you continue in the direction of inquiry which he's laying out, you will find the black swans. 2/
Shortlist of bitcoin's systemic risks:

- Long-term security vs. double-spending (instability of mining incentives)
- 21m supply cap not holding
- Any-term security vs. govt shutdown
- Monopoly mining = max-profit strategy
- Censorability

🦃——————|——🍗 ?

Read 21 tweets
28 May
Seems like the Bitcoin "energy debate" is being made complicated on purpose. 1/
You can explain it in 4 tweets if you're not trying to purposefully shape the information to win friends and influence people. 2/

Read 6 tweets
20 May
@Nakadai_mon @profplum99 @bitcoin_lisa @jordanbpeterson @Breedlove22 @dergigi @aantonop - Climate is an absurd comparison
- It doesn't require G20 coordination (tho it's likely)
- Lightning doesn't work if you can't settle to the base layer
- Algo change doesn't work: the network is now more vulnerable. All you've done is restart exactly the same game at lower cost
@Nakadai_mon @profplum99 @bitcoin_lisa @jordanbpeterson @Breedlove22 @dergigi @aantonop I.e. The state will now out-produce you on the new algo instead, even faster. Not to mention you just fucked over all honest miners who were invested in SHA256. So why would anyone invest in new gear to mine the new algo if it's just going to predictably end up in the same place?
@Nakadai_mon @profplum99 @bitcoin_lisa @jordanbpeterson @Breedlove22 @dergigi @aantonop Realistically, the empty blocks wasn't even the important part of the article. E.g. The part where you announce your blocks reactively, creating a black hole of expenditure for all other miners, works whether you censor all transactions, some transactions, _or no transactions_.
Read 4 tweets
20 May
If Bitcoin falls below $10k it starts to be in trouble technically - vulnerable to double-spends. (I.e. For profit, not even govt). 1/

This might even partly explain what happened last year. After the March crash, $5-6k going into the halving put the system in dangerous territory.

But then at just the right time it began a miraculous run as 'institutions entered the market via Tether'. 2/
That price signal demonstrated Bitcoin's resilience to everyone and confirmed all narratives, setting off the stampede. Danger averted. 3/
Read 7 tweets
11 Mar
“Putting energy into batteries is good. Therefore I declare that Bitcoin is a battery.”

Aside from not making sense, the economics of this don’t really work. Chips cost money. Bitcoin mining = wafer-thin margins. You can’t just keep adding hashrate... 1/
If everyone does this “battery” thing everywhere, it becomes unprofitable — for everyone. I.e. Profits are competed away and you spend $100k on chips with a lifetime expectation of earning <$100k worth of BTC. 2/
On resource consumption, Bitcoin Inc. is mostly just stringing together intellectual sleights of hand. Bitcoin chews up ~$20 billion per year of resources (waste chips as well as energy) at the current price ($50k) and block reward (6.25BTC) levels — it’s that simple. 3/
Read 4 tweets

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