Tomorrow afternoon, I will be releasing my largest and highest conviction position on Substack. Have done 6 months+ of work and after much deliberation, finally developed enough conviction to put pen to paper and share with the public
Am keen to share asap, but having a quick management call tomorrow to tie up any final loose ends. Always good practice, though I generally try not to bother management too much in any of my investments. They have a business to run!
I like this one because not only is it fundamental deep-value, there is a sexy event-driven angle plus a curious case of reflexivity at work - i.e. the higher the price that the market assigns on the shares, the better the eventual outcome, which I think is not too far away
And would like to use this opportunity to shamelessly ask people to consider signing up to my Substack - no paywall anywhere, and I'm very open to criticisms to my ideas/thesis. And I promise no spam! Be the first to receive all ideas directly in your inbox

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More from @Plum_Capital

17 Sep
Thread for my largest position $ATTO - the latest Substack post went out yesterday afternoon, will link in thread below. Encourage any interested Fintwit to read the post in full, but here is the TL:DR version. Enjoy...
$ATTO - Atento is a leading CRM/BPO player in LATAM, with a growing presence in the US and EMEA as well. This is a $400mm market cap, $200mm EBITDA (pre-leases) business that is relatively unknown to the value community, one that I'd readily characterize as a "hidden gem".
Company is very undervalued, only trading at ~5.2x EV/EBITDA on 2022 guidance, with ~20% FCF yield on market cap based on next year's numbers. Checks all the obvious "value" boxes.
Read 16 tweets
13 Sep
$MKTY released August numbers this morning before market open. As anticipated, results were good and this update certainly reduces some fears around execution risk, as the facilities are ramping well.
I am not going to provide any further commentary until more substantial developments occur. Not trying to pump anything and interested investors can review the results for themselves.
In fact, the subdued stock reaction this morning tells me that not many people are doing serious work on the name and $MKTY still remains an undiscovered gem. I've only been adding on dips since my initial Substack post on Aug 26th
Read 6 tweets
26 Aug
Here's a quick thread for my latest substack post for $MKTY - a BTC miner that is flying completely under the radar and is poised for a rapid re-rate in the coming months. $SPRT is all the rage, but $MKTY should be interesting for curmudgeonly value folks
$MKTY is a rapid execution story - the Company's EcoChain division is expected to scale to 53 MW of capacity by 1Q'22, once all 3 facilities (TNT, Python, Anaconda) are fully ramped. The pitch here - they all rely on very low cost renewable energy
Mgmt. published illustrative set of projections back in May this year which called for $42mm of annual run-rate EBITDA to be achieved by 1Q'22, if BTC price of $45k holds

ecochainmining.com/news/businessm…
Read 11 tweets
25 Aug
Quick thought exercise and a trade idea - I have tweeted about fertilizer stocks in the past, and many of them disappointed 2Q earnings (esp. $UAN and $CF). I was caught off-guard about poor price realization, mainly driven by forward selling.
They sell volumes for anywhere between 1-6 months forward. I didn't realize the tail could be this long (in the case of $UAN due to poor mgmt. communication but w/e, my numbers were still way off). So 2Q did not reflect all of higher spot pricing
But we need to look forward - the point is that 3Q is the quarter that they will finally print a clean quarter reflecting ALL of higher spot prices. Will the market start to finalize capitalize some of this? Of course totally TBD but I like the setup here...
Read 10 tweets
19 Aug
I added meaningfully to my $JAKK position in the low $12s. Short thread for anyone still following the name or doing work. I think r/r is getting too good to ignore as the Company gets caught up in the small-cap selloff
The thesis hasn't really changed since my initial Substack writeup. In fact after a stellar 2Q, the market was figuring out the potential here and the stock rallied to $15.5 - a very rapid rerate from $9-10/share pre-earnings
Yet now the stock is off almost 25% from recent highs... to be fair there have been some market-related updates; shipping/logistics challenges around the globe seem to have gotten a bit worse, and some COVID worries, but positive news too, such as the expanded child tax credits
Read 7 tweets
11 Aug
Finally had a chance to read through the $IEA earnings call transcript from the call earlier today. I think this is required reading for anyone interested in the stock. Full of nuggets and I am even more bullish than I was before (not sure if that is possible, but anyway)
I promise to shut up about $IEA shortly but wanted to draw your attention to a line in the transcript that really struck me - the recent equity offering was significantly oversubscribed
This jives with my suspicion that there are many institutions circling around $IEA and looking to snap up shares. And with the earnings commentary out today, wouldn't be surprised to see more strong hands show up in due course as people complete their work and get comfortable
Read 6 tweets

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