(1/6) Fermi’s Paradox, expressed as the Drake Equation, allows us to estimate the frequency of habitable planets and intelligent, spacefaring life. Each additional event is a fraction that reduces the final probability of life within a given distance in the universe ever lower… 
(2/6) How can we think of a Fermi’s Paradox and Drake Equation for Lab Leaks? We can call it the Emergent Pathogen Equation.
L = 1-N = P*G*N*R*C
L = probability of lab leak
N = probability of natural origin
L = 1-N = P*G*N*R*C
L = probability of lab leak
N = probability of natural origin
(3/6) P = pathogenic research of relevant viral families in a nearby lab occurred (1 if 100% yes scaling to 0 if 100% no)
G = genetic engineering or selection research adapted for human enhanced infection of a previous virus occurred (1 if 100% yes scaling to 0 if 100% no)
G = genetic engineering or selection research adapted for human enhanced infection of a previous virus occurred (1 if 100% yes scaling to 0 if 100% no)
(4/6) N = natural host reservoir cannot be identified (approaches 1 if it cannot, ~0 if it can)
R = 1 if first case within distance R of lab where P or G may have occurred, otherwise assign fractional value (though this variable may be eliminated if there is suspected biowarfare)
R = 1 if first case within distance R of lab where P or G may have occurred, otherwise assign fractional value (though this variable may be eliminated if there is suspected biowarfare)
(5/6) C = does the relevant research facility, if P or G were >0.5, cover up or delete potentially relevant sequences or samples?
(6/6) These are just some models to think through as we continue to assess the origins of the pandemic. No model is perfect, however people who are discounting potential lab origins seem to be willing to ignore details and evidence to support comfortable or acceptable narratives.
Fermi Paradox* :)
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
