Thread by @DocJeffD

Some are asking why King County decided to require verification of vaccination or a negative test to enter certain public recreational activities. A brief 🧵... 1/
publichealthinsider.com/2021/09/16/new…

The Delta variant has fundamentally changed the course of our CoV-19 outbreak & how we must respond to it. 2/

The virus is airborne, wickedly more infectious than earlier variants, spreads especially readily indoors & when masks are not worn, causes serious illness, and is not adequately controlled. 3/

Washington state is experiencing all time high levels of CoV-19 cases and hospitalizations. In King County we have high levels of transmission. Last week, 1 person was hospitalized w/ CoV-19 every 65 minutes, & someone died from CoV-19 related illness every 8 hours. 4/

At the same time, over the past 30 days, compared to vaccinated people, the unvaccinated were 7X more likely to be diagnosed with CoV-19, 41X more likely to be hospitalized, and 42X more likely to die from CoV-19-related illness. 5/

Our regional healthcare system is under serious stress, overloaded from increasing hospitalizations & critically ill patients needing ventilators to breathe, including an increasing number of younger adults & pregnant women, some delivering their newborns in the ICU. 6/

No pregnant women should have to deliver a baby prematurely while on a ventilator in the ICU, & no child should have to start their life that way, because CoV-19 is preventable through vaccination, the single best option for protecting individuals & our community. 7/

On top of this level of community health and healthcare system stress, the University of Washington's @IHME_UW projects our outbreak to worsen over the coming months, peaking in mid-late December. 8/
healthdata.org/special-analys…

In the absence of vaccine verification, IHME projects that over the next 6 months there will be over 300,000 new infections in KC (164,000 diagnosed & reported), approximately 8,000 new hospitalizations, and up to 1200 additional deaths. 9/

Also over the next 6 months, IHME estimates that vaccine verification at restaurants, bars, and gyms alone could PREVENT between 17,900 & 75,900 infections, between 421 & 1,760 hospitalizations, & between 63 & 257 deaths. healthdata.org/special-analys… 10/

That’s preventing between 10 and 43 deaths on average each month from vaccine verification in restaurants, bars, and gyms alone. In the model’s maximum effect scenario, vaccine verification could prevent up to 20% of infections, hospitalizations, & deaths over the 6 months. 11/

It’s important to note that the report does not currently include any health benefits of vaccine verification at entertainment venues or large indoor or outdoor events where vaccine verification will also take place. 12/

Also important to recognize that these estimates are based on the best currently available information, include a range of uncertainty, & will be updated as new information becomes available about the epidemiology of the outbreak & the impact of mitigation measures. 13/

Our CoV-19 response must adapt to the changing reality of the evolving pandemic. Facing an unwanted, resurgent pandemic is difficult & unpleasant. It's understandable people are fed up w/ CoV-19 & the hardships this pandemic has brought. I hear you & I’m feeling it as well. 14/

But, if instead of taking stronger measures we give in to fatigue & frustration, it’s our own families, friends, & community members, particularly the most vulnerable, who will pay the cost in unnecessary, preventable infections, hospitalizations, & deaths. 15/

We need to pay attention to the threat our hospitals are facing & safeguard our healthcare system so everyone can get the care they need, including lifesaving care, when they need it, whether it’s for CoV-19, a heart attack or stroke, for cancer care or a serious accident. 16/

For these reasons, we will require verification of vaccination or a negative test to enter outdoor public events of 500 or more people & indoor entertainment & recreational venues & events such as live music, performing arts, gyms, restaurants, & bars. 17/ publichealthinsider.com/2021/09/16/new…

This will help reduce the spread of CoV-19 in high-risk public settings, prevent hospitalizations & deaths, and help stabilize the healthcare system. It will make businesses and other public venues safer for customers, workers and our community. 18/

By decreasing community CoV-19 spread, it will also help decrease the risk to our children, & this is especially important until vaccine is available for those 5-12 years of age, which should happen sometime this fall. 19/

It is our hope that taking these & other steps to stop the spread of CoV-19 now should also help reduce the need for potentially more disruptive measures in the coming months. 20/

The vaccine verification order is not permanent. It will be reviewed periodically based on outbreak conditions & no later than six months after the implementation date to assess its continued need. 21/

However, it will likely be needed until disease rates come down, hospitalizations are at a more manageable & stable level for our HC system, & more adults and children are vaccinated + protected from serious infections. 22/

Although the exact future course of the pandemic is uncertain, ultimately its impact on our lives will diminish & we will live with the virus while limiting its impact on our health, our ability to do the activities we value, & on our schools, our businesses, and our economy. 23/

But CoV-19 not going away soon, and we are entering what could be a very rough fall & winter with levels of transmission and severe disease that are way too high. 24/

Along w/good quality, well-fitting face masks, improved indoor air (ventilation/filtration/UV), distancing, & limiting high-risk activities, vaccine verification will reduce infections & hospitalizations, save lives, & help get us where we all want to be sooner & more safely. END