1) Before the fall of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, the Pakistani government constantly berated the Afghan government for purportedly sheltering the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan, which is responsible for killing tens of thousands of Paksitani civilians and soldiers.
2) The Afghan government wasn't sheltering the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan (TTP), the TTP was sheltering in areas in southern and eastern Afghanistan that were under Afghan Taliban control. The TTP also fought alongside the Afghan Taliban against the Afghan government.
3) Now that Afghanistan is under control of the Taliban, where are the Pakistani government's calls for the Taliban to eliminate safe haven for the TTP? Don't hold your breath.
4) This absurd dynamic of the Pakistani state supporting the Afghan Taliban, which supports the TTP, which threatens the Pakistani state, is part of what my colleague @thomasjoscelyn brilliantly calls "The Wheel of Jihad."

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More from @billroggio

19 Sep
1) Pakistani jihadi cleric Maulana Abdul Aziz, who led the 2007 insurrection at the Red Mosque or Lal Masjid in Islamabad, raised the Taliban's white flag over the mosque after the Taliban's victory.
en.dailypakistan.com.pk/18-Sep-2021/la…
2) Aziz is threatening policemen with violence if they take the flags down. He has been charged by the Pakistani police, but don't expect those charges to stick. More than 100 people were killed in the Lal Masjid crisis, but Aziz only spent two years in jail. A Teflon Cleric.
3) After his release in 2009, Aziz continued his anti-state jihadist activities. In 2014, the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan chose Aziz and other pro-Taliban clerics to negotiate on their behalf with the Pakistani government. You can see Aziz accompanied by armed guards. Image
Read 5 tweets
18 Sep
1) @bpolitics should be ashamed of publishing this article that authoritatively states that Khalil Haqqani began punching Mullah Baradar, and then a gunfight broke out between security details.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
@bpolitics 2) I noted here that this rumor mill reporting of so called clashes between Taliban leaders is a mainstay of the region, and it nearly always wrong:
@bpolitics 3) If you want to report that there was a gunfight between two senior Taliban leaders, you better have more than just "my sources said it was true." This is how the world ate up @hxhassan's "Zawahiri is dead" narrative. It was of course wrong:
Read 5 tweets
17 Sep
1) The U.S. drone strike that was supposed to target an Islamic State car bomber in Kabul killed 10 civilians, including 7 children, the military admitted.

It was clear to me from the outset that this a was what used to be called a "signature strike."

nytimes.com/2021/09/17/us/…
2) I watched the @nytimes video report last weekend. It was obvious that the military made critical areas. But the military didn't have access to CCTV footage, which showed the man carrying multiple empty water jugs in a single hand, etc.
nytimes.com/video/world/as…
@nytimes 3) This was a tragic final act of the U.S. presence in Afghanistan. It also demonstrates why relying on "over the horizon" strikes to deal with AL Qaeda and the Islamic State is fraught with peril.
Read 6 tweets
16 Sep
1) @US4AfghanPeace Zalmay Khalilzad’s explanation of what happened in the final days of the fall of Kabul is a jumbled mess. He is spinning to make himself look good but it fails. If you take his narrative at face value, he essentially green lighted the Taliban to enter the city.
2) @thomasjoseclyn notes that the idea that the Taliban was going to negotiate after it surrounded Kabul is absurd. He is of course right. foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/15/zal…
3) @husainhaqqani also nails it. Negotiations at this point were gaslighting. Zal was a fool if he believed there was anything left to negotiate.
Read 8 tweets
16 Sep
1) The breathless so-called “reporting & analysis” on this issue is laughable. Baradar shows up on TV, denies the infighting & now @Charles_Lister is “unconvinced” that there wasn’t a fight after first tweeting Baradar was missing. Stick with Syria, quit sensationalizing rumors.
@Charles_Lister 2) I say this for a reason. These type of of rumors are more than common, and nearly always turn out to be wrong. I've studied the Afghan & Pakistani Taliban for years, and can recall numerous instances of bogus reports of infighting.
@Charles_Lister 3) Here's one, from 2015, when rumors were floated that Mullah Akhtar Muhammad Mansour, then the Taliban's emir (later killed by the US in a drone strike in Pakistan), was killed during a meeting with his commanders. Mansour obviously denied it. longwarjournal.org/archives/2015/…
Read 6 tweets
15 Sep
1) Mullah Sangeen Zadran epitomized the Taliban-Al Qaeda relationship. Called Al Qaeda his "brothers". Designated by US for ties to Al Qaeda. A Haqqani Network leader, the Taliban's shadow governor & military leader of Paktika up until the U.S. killed him in 2013.
2) In 2009, Sangeen openly admitted that the bond between the “brothers” of Al Qaeda and the Taliban were unbreakable. In a As Sahab interview, Sangeen said: “We do not see any difference between Taliban and Al Qaeda,” and the two groups “are all one and are united by Islam.”
Sangeen in 2009: "Sheikh Usama [bin Laden] has pledged allegiance to Amir Al-Mumineen [Leader of the Faithful Mulla Muhammad Umar] and has reassured his leadership again and again. There is no difference between us, for we are united by Islam and the Sharia governs us."
Read 7 tweets

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