Dave Troy Profile picture
Sep 18, 2021 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
I’m here at the US Capitol this morning to observe what, if anything, may happen here today. Word is this will be a quiet day. I will report anything newsworthy or notable on this thread. Image
Anemic showing so far. More cops and media than demonstrators. Also a lot of dump trucks and snowplows. ImageImageImage
LARP Moses is here. So far that’s about the most noteworthy development. He was talking about drinking beer. Image
The vibe here is “we love the Capitol police” and “anyone who committed violence should be held accountable.” The big gripe is perceived lack of due process. Remains unclear how much of that complaint is based in reality; much hyperbole in use.
They have a string of “Tu Quoque” logical fallacies and false equivalencies, suggesting that the violence at and inside the Capitol is the same as various other non-Capitol violence and peaceful protests. A festival of whataboutism. Also several claims of warrantless searches.
As this winds down, Capitol Police are staging a shield blockade behind the barrier fence. Energy here is low and I sense no appetite for violence or conflict. ImageImage
And that’s a wrap. The final call to action, “Go home now please.” Folks are generally dispersing. Thankfully this can be characterized as a non-event with the worst offense being the dissemination of some very exaggerated and distorted claims. Image
Perhaps the most disturbing aspect of this event was its apparent civility and reasonableness, with leaps of logic just below the surface. Whoever collected the names/data for this event has a pool of people to feed into future radicalization pipelines. The funnel must be fed.

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More from @davetroy

Jul 23
A moment of inside baseball: the reason it was wrong to bully the president about dropping out was because it taught bullies the lesson that bullying not only works, but is necessary.

It expressed distrust that the president could ultimately be counted on to make the right decision without being bullied.

It gave an opening to those who might drive a chaotic internecine battle that would leave us without a clear path forward.

It led adversaries to draw false conclusions about his fitness to complete his term.

In short, the whole episode was reckless, and a gift to our adversaries.

In fact, the way it played out, the president got polling data that suggested a change was a good idea. And he made a decision. Exactly as the system was supposed to work.

Anyone insinuating that Joe Biden was “clinging to power” to the last minute doesn’t understand Joe Biden. He ran because he thought he could win. The minute he no longer believed that, he changed course.

Now look, you can spin whatever story you want, but the truth is this: no bullying was necessary, and intraparty bullying was a self-own that we now need to mitigate. It’s okay, it’s recoverable.

Ultimately, this was a tough jump, fraught with peril. But we stuck the landing and are skiing straight to victory.

But it didn’t need to be this risky, and if you bullied in public, don’t expect to be thanked or congratulated. All anyone had to do was trust the president to make the right decision, based on data presented to him. Because he ultimately did, and always would have done so.

Take this lesson to heart — especially now as foreign propagandists use the doubts you sowed to spread rumors about whether Biden is even alive or not. Because that’s what this chatter got us, and it was completely unnecessary.

And to those of you who angled for chaos, an open convention, and damaging internecine conflict, that was ultimately just straight up unhelpful.

So today, we forgive, we forget, we move on, we unite, we win. But we also learn. And some people did some really irresponsible things, and I hope they come to know better in the future. Onward! ⛷️
Friends send you a letter. Bullies put a sign on your yard. We saw the difference in this episode.
Loyalty, honor, and grace also matter, and are also warranted except in extreme breach of social contract. And they’re a matter of operational security. Not being a jerk is just good politics.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 22
1/My biggest concern about Biden withdrawing was that the field would be fractured, no clear consensus would emerge, and we'd spend four weeks locked in damaging internecine conflict.

As of right now, consensus has clearly formed around Harris — and that's a great thing!
2/It means we can immediately rally behind Harris and start spreading the truth about what Vance, Musk, Thiel, Putin and their Project 2025 allies have in store for America. This is no time to go backwards. Harris is the presumptive nominee, and it's time to move forward!
3/The biggest thing holding D's back this cycle was broad uncertainty. Anyone suggesting that what we need right now is more uncertainty, more delay, more infighting is either incompetent or simply not helping.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 21
1/In light of the news that Biden has withdrawn from the presidential race, let's take a moment to consider what that means in terms of electoral mechanics and, crucially, winning the race.

To win, Dems need to maximize their own turnout while also minimizing R turnout...
2/In the modern American political environment, turnout is driven by fear that the other side will gain control. So to maximize Dem turnout, ramping up fears about Project 2025, women's rights, and authoritarianism is likely to be more effective than any efforts to shape...
3/the ticket (with a particular VP pick, say) or the platform. Kamala Harris is the only workable and just candidate, so they will have to work with that.

Harris, however, is likely to make R's white hot and incandescent with rage, and fear that she will win. To dampen R...
Read 16 tweets
Jul 19
1/The global IT outage caused by a failed Crowdstrike software update can apparently be fixed by booting Windows into Safe Mode and deleting a file. This means millions of Windows machines need to be booted and fixed by hand.
Image
2/This could take days to accomplish and could be extremely costly. No information right now suggests this is a cyberattack. But if it was, it may be a supply chain attack where malicious code was injected into the source code without detection. Nothing to suggest that yet.
3/Suggest folks avoid panic or unfounded speculation until facts are known. This appears to be easily fixable, it’s just a mess. Will post any significant updates here, but this is what I see for now.
Read 9 tweets
Jul 18
Notably, Lavrov did not endorse *Trump*, but Vance. This further reinforces the idea that Trump's utility is all but over, and he should watch his back after election, because Putin/Musk/Thiel are all backing Vance.
Related: if there's not a full-blown counterintelligence investigation running on Vance, we have really dropped the ball. WTF, even.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 17
1/It’s beyond clear from evidence that Trump would not have chosen Vance, and that Musk, Sacks, Carlson et al pushed Trump to select him. This suggests Trump and Vance are beholden to that network, and are also aligned with Putin’s interests. The only thing more terrifying than…
2/Trump and his capriciousness is this scenario, where he is not only beholden to Putin’s network, but also fully disposable.

He is a beaten, pathetic man, and knows that if he steps out of line, he’s never more than an inch away from being erased. And indeed, there will be…
3/an incentive to have him gone. Once November 5 comes, he should employ a taster, avoid windows, and stay indoors. He will become fully unnecessary, and even in the way of this team of would-be Red Caesars.
Read 5 tweets

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