Why have the US death rates not come down?
It is 9 months since vaccines were rolled out in the US.
61% have received at least 1 dose.
54% are fully vaccinated.
The ratio between cases and deaths should have increased by now.
(Fewer deaths per case = bigger ratio)
Thread 👇
It is 9 months since vaccines were rolled out in the US.
61% have received at least 1 dose.
54% are fully vaccinated.
The ratio between cases and deaths should have increased by now.
(Fewer deaths per case = bigger ratio)
Thread 👇
One possibility is that there are still many people who are not vaccinated, and these figures represent infection & death among the unvaccinated subgroup.
And if the unvaccinated are predominantly over 65, it would mean more deaths. See NYT article👇
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nytimes.com/2021/06/21/us/…
And if the unvaccinated are predominantly over 65, it would mean more deaths. See NYT article👇
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nytimes.com/2021/06/21/us/…
The above article states that in 11 states, at least 20% of older adults have not received even one dose.
The most logical explanation for the above graph is the combination of factors (older age group + being unvaccinated) existing in a large number of people.
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The most logical explanation for the above graph is the combination of factors (older age group + being unvaccinated) existing in a large number of people.
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“Deaths have been concentrated among the unvaccinated. The CDC released studies showing that unvaccinated Americans were 4.6 times as likely to be infected, 10 times as likely to be hospitalized and 11 times as likely to die”
writes @jon_kamp in @WSJ
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wsj.com/articles/covid…
writes @jon_kamp in @WSJ
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wsj.com/articles/covid…
However, hospitals say the death rates have not come down, and that the age group has shifted to younger people. @jon_kamp writes that in Tampa General, the ICU patient’s age is only 46.
He finds that the share of deaths among <54 segment has increased to over 20%.
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He finds that the share of deaths among <54 segment has increased to over 20%.
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“97% of COVID-19 deaths are in unvaccinated or partially vaccinated people” - report from Pennsylvania.
Death was 7.9 times more likely among these subgroups, when compared to fully vaccinated people.
The % of people needing ICU is more this year.
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media.pa.gov/pages/health-d…
Death was 7.9 times more likely among these subgroups, when compared to fully vaccinated people.
The % of people needing ICU is more this year.
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media.pa.gov/pages/health-d…
In summary, it appears that even a relatively high rate of vaccination coverage will not bring down the death rate (as defined as the ratio of daily reported deaths / cases).
Reports indicate that most of these deaths are among those who have not had 2 doses of vaccine.
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Reports indicate that most of these deaths are among those who have not had 2 doses of vaccine.
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What does this mean for the rest of the world?
Hybrid immunity is a potential solution: that is 1 dose vaccine among those who previously had COVID-19.
At least 2 antigen exposures will be required to keep deaths down, either by 2 dose vaccine or by hybrid immunity.
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Hybrid immunity is a potential solution: that is 1 dose vaccine among those who previously had COVID-19.
At least 2 antigen exposures will be required to keep deaths down, either by 2 dose vaccine or by hybrid immunity.
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The current % of vaccine coverage (2/1 dose):
UK 66/73
Canada 70/76
India 14/43
Vietnam 6.2/27
Zambia 1.6/1.7
Note: level of protection also depends on seroprevalence from natural infection. e.g. 80% seroprevalence was recently reported from unvaccinated people in Mumbai.
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UK 66/73
Canada 70/76
India 14/43
Vietnam 6.2/27
Zambia 1.6/1.7
Note: level of protection also depends on seroprevalence from natural infection. e.g. 80% seroprevalence was recently reported from unvaccinated people in Mumbai.
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The % vaccination coverage by country, @nytimes
See above thread 👆for context
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
See above thread 👆for context
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
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