1/ On Metaverse Land
This is a very short thread, but something that has been bothering me since the spring and I think I now have an initial point of view on it
6529 does not yet own any metaverse land (decentraland, sonmium, etc) bc I had some concerns I had to work through
This is a very short thread, but something that has been bothering me since the spring and I think I now have an initial point of view on it
6529 does not yet own any metaverse land (decentraland, sonmium, etc) bc I had some concerns I had to work through
2/ Concern 1: I don't understand conceptually why metaverse land should be scarce from a consumer product market fit perspective.
I get that, say, decentraland limits land to make number go up, but the marginal cost of metaverse land is zero and we need to bring 1B ppl onboard
I get that, say, decentraland limits land to make number go up, but the marginal cost of metaverse land is zero and we need to bring 1B ppl onboard
3/ So I think, basically, any metaverse that limits land to some artificially small amount will eventually be outcompeted by a metaverse that onboards tens or hundreds of billions of people for close to free
And that is likely to be a centralized institution which is bad
And that is likely to be a centralized institution which is bad
4/ As always, the scarce thing is people's attention.
From a global perspective, land is not valuable, the median value of a random plot of land on the earth is very low.
But land in NYC is very valuable. Why?
Well because 8M people live in NYC that's why.
From a global perspective, land is not valuable, the median value of a random plot of land on the earth is very low.
But land in NYC is very valuable. Why?
Well because 8M people live in NYC that's why.
5/ In other words, land in NYC is valuable only insofar as it is a proxy for the attention of 8M people.
That attention drives economic activity - banking, pizza, nightclubs, shopping - which gets embedded in the land value bc the land allows you to capture a slice of it
That attention drives economic activity - banking, pizza, nightclubs, shopping - which gets embedded in the land value bc the land allows you to capture a slice of it
6/ So conclusion 1 is that I am long-term bearish on metaverses that are directly or indirectly limiting themselves to xx,xxx or xxx,xxx land owners.
We need billions of people onboard in the metaverse, not 50,000 and someone is going to do it.
We need billions of people onboard in the metaverse, not 50,000 and someone is going to do it.
7/ BTW, probably a brief break to say that none of this is financial advice.
Decentraland land might 100x from here. Also, I think Decentraland and all the other metaverses are great and I am delighted that we are running the experiment. And they could change strategy too.
Decentraland land might 100x from here. Also, I think Decentraland and all the other metaverses are great and I am delighted that we are running the experiment. And they could change strategy too.
8/ Concern 2: I am torn on this.
I understand that a 3D representation of 'real world' is helpful for onboarding and will feel comforting.
But walking around empty fields in Decentraland to look for something feels like importing a bug from IRL, not a feature.
I understand that a 3D representation of 'real world' is helpful for onboarding and will feel comforting.
But walking around empty fields in Decentraland to look for something feels like importing a bug from IRL, not a feature.
9/ I don't have a practical solution to this
It will require UX innovation because the perfect solution will give a familiar environment without the IRL bugs
Walking + Teleporting. Everyone is doing this of course, but nobody has it right yet IMHO.
It will require UX innovation because the perfect solution will give a familiar environment without the IRL bugs
Walking + Teleporting. Everyone is doing this of course, but nobody has it right yet IMHO.
10/ The 'investment' issue this raises is "is physical proximity to other top areas in a metaverse a driver of land value?"
My current view is inclined to yes despite the above, but less than ppl think.
Teleport access from a top area might be more important for example
My current view is inclined to yes despite the above, but less than ppl think.
Teleport access from a top area might be more important for example
11/ Concern 3: Which metaverse technology, platforms, projects win?
This is mission impossible to guess right now.
We are still in experimental phase and a tidal wave of decentralized and centralized metaverses is incoming, including from mega-firms with world-class UX
This is mission impossible to guess right now.
We are still in experimental phase and a tidal wave of decentralized and centralized metaverses is incoming, including from mega-firms with world-class UX
12/ So my current best solution to the difficult questions above is take the easy way out and not try to answer it.
For me the answer for now is orthogonal to the question and it is in the direction of memes as embedded in grail NFTs
For me the answer for now is orthogonal to the question and it is in the direction of memes as embedded in grail NFTs
13/ If Decentraland wins, will people want to see summer.jpg there? Yes!
If Somnium win, will they want to see The Tulip there? Yes!
What about for each and every metaverse to come? Also Yes!
If Somnium win, will they want to see The Tulip there? Yes!
What about for each and every metaverse to come? Also Yes!
14/ So that is my answer for now.
6529 still might buy land in various metaverses - I think of them as 6529 embassies in other nation-states if you like.
But my conclusion for now is that important social/cultural objects (memes) are more important than tech stacks
6529 still might buy land in various metaverses - I think of them as 6529 embassies in other nation-states if you like.
But my conclusion for now is that important social/cultural objects (memes) are more important than tech stacks
15/ If summer.jpg is the statue of liberty for 6529 fam, in a digital world, we can take sunshine wherever we like, from twitter to SR to 6529 land to decentraland, even if needed, into FB and Epic land to show people a way out.
16/ Memes are the apex objects in society.
The idea of the United States is a powerful and basically irreplaceable idea.
The US Embassy in France, while expensive, is just concrete and steel and can be easily replaced.
tl;dr - Memes first, land second
The idea of the United States is a powerful and basically irreplaceable idea.
The US Embassy in France, while expensive, is just concrete and steel and can be easily replaced.
tl;dr - Memes first, land second
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