⚠️🚨The NHS risks being overwhelmed this Winter and we could be heading for a lockdown. 🚨⚠️
The govt's plan misses action now. Today, we @InstituteGC offer an alternative to navigate Winter and live alongside Covid.
First, the numbers. Are things so bad?
🧵
The govt's plan misses action now. Today, we @InstituteGC offer an alternative to navigate Winter and live alongside Covid.
First, the numbers. Are things so bad?
🧵
Yes. Today around 25% of ICU is occupied by Covid patients. Hospitalisations will increase as immunity wanes. Every (non-pandemic) Winter, ICU operates around 85% capacity.
It's simple maths. 85+25 = Overwhelmed. To avoid this, our plan must do two things:
It's simple maths. 85+25 = Overwhelmed. To avoid this, our plan must do two things:
1. Stop hospitalisations now. As table shows, most are over 60 and unvaccinated - but % of fully vaccinated growing.
2. Manage case numbers in Winter. Modelling suggests if we hit 50k a day then ICU capacity reaches 40%. That's lockdown territory.
What measures are needed now?
2. Manage case numbers in Winter. Modelling suggests if we hit 50k a day then ICU capacity reaches 40%. That's lockdown territory.
What measures are needed now?
*Stop hospitalisations now*
💉Push hard on boosters for over 50s
🤦♀️Vaccinate the unvaccinated (data, support and a vaccine passport as we've seen in e.g. 🇫🇷🇨🇭🇳🇱)
💊Meds that give antibodies - anyone at risk who tests positive, they should receive these (as Trump did.)
💉Push hard on boosters for over 50s
🤦♀️Vaccinate the unvaccinated (data, support and a vaccine passport as we've seen in e.g. 🇫🇷🇨🇭🇳🇱)
💊Meds that give antibodies - anyone at risk who tests positive, they should receive these (as Trump did.)
*Manage case numbers in Winter*
👧Catch-up by vaccinating 12-16s by half term. We're behind vs Europe and case numbers fastest growing (see pic)
😷Mandate masks in indoor public spaces. It's borderline negligence that this proven infection reducer (by 35%+) is no longer required.
👧Catch-up by vaccinating 12-16s by half term. We're behind vs Europe and case numbers fastest growing (see pic)
😷Mandate masks in indoor public spaces. It's borderline negligence that this proven infection reducer (by 35%+) is no longer required.
All of this should be managed through a Covid Pass. It is a liberty-preserving alternative to lockdown and working effectively in Europe. It would drive take-up of essential boosters, vaccines for young people and ensure unvaccinated people made a conscious decision.
💉🌍 Covid will only be over when the world is vaccinated. We must push harder on this and think globally with every action we take domestically. E.G. Boosters should only be given to those genuinely at risk and we should use all vaccines including @AstraZeneca.
As ever, a huge thank you to my brilliant colleagues at @InstituteGC - @DanielSleat @brianna_kmiller @summers_c_harry & Jacob Delorme. And modelling supremo @DavidJBritto.
institute.global/policy/pandemi…
institute.global/policy/pandemi…
For an abridged version of this, see @Telegraph piece by @PaulNuki and @sneweyy
telegraph.co.uk/global-health/…
telegraph.co.uk/global-health/…
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