My long term thesis on $LUNA in a few short steps, a 🧵:
1. $LUNA as a bet on Terra blockchain growth 2. $LUNA as a bet on Terra going cross-chain and mainstream 3. $LUNA as a bet on DeFi as $UST becomes the largest scaled decentralized stablecoin 4. $LUNA as an inflation hedge
As of right now we’re seeing step 1 play itself out. Up until this point the only major use of $UST we have seen has come from Terra’s own blockchain through $ANC and $MIR. Once Col-5 rolls out we will see this continue as 50+ protocols are set to launch on the blockchain.
It’s also at this point we will finally see step 2 begin to emerge through IBC and Wormhole integrations. The liquidity will grow slowly over time as more DeFi protocols begin to integrate themselves with $UST. @orion_money will also act as the trojan horse for Anchor usage
Once enough protocols begin to understand the importance of true decentralization, and the majority of liquidity from other protocols comes from $UST it will simply be the most widely used stablecoin in every protocol imaginable on every chain, which will culminate in step 3.
At the same time we can expect more money to flow into crypto. Whether this be individuals recognizing the power and freedom of the tech, or whether FinTech apps and banks run their backend through these protocols to save enormously on CAPEX. It will suck up a large amount of USD
It’s at this point people begin to realize that through it’s burn mechanism $LUNA becomes a perfect candidate for an inflation hedge. I wrote about that here: westiecapital.medium.com/why-luna-could…
It’s with this narrative in mind that I’m extremely long-term bullish on $LUNA. While this projects far out in the future, and things change quickly in this space, I will likely adapt given new circumstances. But overall $LUNA has the potential to grow much farther from here
To give reference, the TAM of stablecoins is the world’s broad money supply, or around $90 trillion. The entire stablecoin market is only a fraction of this at $120b, of which we can expect $UST to gain significant market share. $LUNA is the only asset able to bet on this growth
While some can get caught up in the of bullish and bearish market cycles of the past, what’s undeniable is the growth in adoption we are about to see. I’m excited to see where things go from here and remain bullish on $LUNA regardless of short term price swings
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Another important distinction when it comes to the differences between $ETH and $LUNA, $UST has to do with the constant friction between the holders of the value token and the actual users of the ecosystem.
As the $ETH network gets used by more and more people, that congestion causes problems for those using the blockchain. The gas fees become incredibly high, the token value fluctuates making it hard to plan for paying the gas, more failed transactions, longer wait times, etc.
But when the experience for users gets really bad, the holders of the token accrue a lot of benefit. Due to EIP-1559 more has fees means more burning of the supply, more usage causes an increase in the price of the token through network value and the necessity to pay for gas
I firmly believe Columbus-5 is going to be the catalyst for absurd parabolic growth for $LUNA. There has been a lot of great content about why this upgrade is incredibly important, but I want to add some of my own thoughts to the discussion 👇
The first reason for parabolic growth has to do with $UST adoption, given that every $UST requires $1 of $LUNA to be bought and burned. With Col-5 comes many different projects whose aim is to use as much $UST as possible.
I believe the goal of $10b by the end of the year is certainly feasible, given all the developments the upgrade brings. Many of the 50+ protocols building on Terra will suck up a lot of $UST in some way. Here are some specific catalysts I'm looking to (not exhaustive):