Interesting theory: "The Economist magazine cover" as the ultimate sign of consensus, so contrarian investors bet against it.

Old covers include:
◻️ "Brazil's Fall" = bottom of Brazil stocks
◻️ "The Almighty Dollar" = top of USD
◻️ "The end of oil" = bottom(ish) of oil ImageImageImageImage
Obviously, there's cherry-picking here.

For example, this Big Tech cover in January 2018 did *not* call the top of Big Tech (not even close). Image
Anyways, the cover of The Economist this week was on DeFi. Not saying it's anywhere near the top, pls don't @ me (was just the latest cover and wanted to talk about the theory).

Here's an article explaining "The Economist Cover theory" (2018): seekingalpha.com/article/416061… Image
Anyways, I previously wrote 5 reasons I’m a fan of The Economist here: trungtphan.com/an-ode-to-the-…

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More from @TrungTPhan

21 Sep
Just started Max Chafkin's new Peter Thiel book ("The Contrarian"). In anticipation of it, also re-read Thiel's 2014 Reddit AMA...tons of interesting answers.

THREAD: Here are 10 of them including on Elon, MBAs, Facebook, Bitcoin and Palantir. Image
1/ Thiel's first impression of Elon Image
2/ Thiel's biggest investing mistake was not doubling down on Facebook (he also sold 80% of stake shortly after FB's IPO, at about $20 a share...it's now >$350) Image
Read 15 tweets
18 Sep
Found a glorious TikTok account: "Design Secrets", which explains the technical and psychological design rationale behind everyday things.

Here are 14 gems 🧵
1/ MOVIE THEATRE SEATS & CURTAINS are red because it is the first color the human eye loses sight of when lights dim (or in darkness).

With this effect, people focus on the show instead of surroundings.
2/ DRAIN PIPES are U-shaped to create a one-way valve that lets water flow but also traps dangerous gases.

◻️ Water flows down
◻️ The U-shape collects some water, creating a "seal"
◻️ Gases from the plumbing can NOT pass up to the sink because of the "water trap"
Read 18 tweets
16 Sep
This is so frickin cool
This YouTube comment nails it:

🔗 Image
Anyways, here’s a related George Lucas tweet:
Read 4 tweets
14 Sep
Mailchimp just sold to Intuit for $12B.

The Atlanta-based email marketing firm has taken no VC money.

Even more impressive, its CEO and co-founder Ben Chestnut has the cleanest “Experience” section in the history of Linkedin:
Built it for 21 years!!

💎🙌 should be renamed to 🌰 🙌
Great nugget from @alexrkonrad.

In 2015-16, Mailchimp valued at $2B by a NY PE firm.

Chestnut left that number on peice of paper in his safe for his wife to use (and shop Mailchimp) if anything happened to him.

🌰🙌
Read 6 tweets
12 Sep
This is Lex Greensill.

He founded Greensill Capital to disrupt "supply-chain finance", a $500B industry supporting global trade.

A year ago, Greensill was headed for a $30B+ IPO. Now, it's worth $0 (oh, and Softbank was a big backer).

Here's the story 🧵
1/ First, what is supply chain finance (SCF)?

Let's say you supply widgets to a car company. Typically, you give CarCo 90-120 days to pay its invoice for the widgets.

Waiting for the money sucks, though. You have working capital needs that the CarCo money could help cover.
2/ Let's say your invoice to CarCo is $1000.

A bank or finance firm will offer you this SCF deal:

1⃣ Advance you $990
2⃣ Take on the credit risk of CarCo's bill owing
3⃣ At 90-120 days, the bank/financier collects $1000 from CarCo and profits $10
Read 25 tweets
11 Sep
When a startup claims it has “AI” or “ML” and then you take a look at the actual tech
Or as @elonmusk would say:

“I discourage the use of machine learning because it’s very difficult: 99.9% of the time, you do not need it.”

“AI”
Read 6 tweets

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