The $64,000 question in crypto lending is “Whose equity takes losses and how much of it is there to support the loan book?” and the community seems to think the answer is “What is equity and why would you need it for an overcollateralized loan?”
Forgive me for making this seem really simple but:

Borrower: I want to borrow $60k.
Lender: I will need to custody $90k BTC against that.
Borrower: No worries.
Lender: Purpose?
Borrower: Buying Bitcoin naturally.
Lender: Naturally. I will lend out the collateral.
Borrower: Cool.
There are a lot of things you could say about that structure but “It seems to be totally hedged against all plausible moves in the price of BTC” is not one of those things.
From this comes observation comes a related one: many products which aren’t sold as equity seem to have very equity-like exposures under stress.

Tether, for example, is pretty clearly an equity claim if you squint at it.

Is $EXCHANGE Lend? And if so, where in stack does it sit?
Like if you are preferred equity in Chase you know exactly how quickly you take impairment relative to common equity, bond holders, and depositors.

If you are I Can’t Believe It’s Not Equity in an exchange, where in the stack is that exactly?

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More from @patio11

21 Sep
A repeated experience in working in infrastructure:

As a civilian, you assume civilisation has long since solved X.

You then find out that it has not, and instead there has been a bandaid over X, for 40 years. That bandaid is mindblowingly... words do not describe it.
And then you think "Maybe the experts here know something about it that I do not. Here, let me ask." And so you do. And they say, yes, we know the bandaid is a terrible kludge, but we are worried that it will summon an eldritch horror from beyond spacetime if we think too hard.
And then you think "I mean, eldritch horrors from beyond spacetime seem a little unlikely. How bad could it actually be?"

And then the expert says "Oh it could lead to food riots in Kansas if this system goes down for more than an hour."

And they're right.
Read 4 tweets
20 Sep
Torn between “not really thrilled by gotcha journalism in general” and “forcing people to evaluate hard tradeoffs concretely versus abstractly best way to make sure that some evaluation of tradeoffs happens.”
No subtweet rule: this is about pandemic policy, specific subgenre the politicians who violate generally applicable restrictions on liberty designed to improve population-wide health outcomes such as e.g. the SF mayor violating the mask ordinance, and the discourse about it.
As somebody who was and is very much on team Smash The Big Red Button This Is Very Bad, I wish there was some acknowledgement that the policy regimes implemented have constrained liberty to a degree that I would have had difficulty imagining a few years ago, largely w/o debate.
Read 7 tweets
20 Sep
X, who very plausibly *has never set foot in the United States*, then talks to a lawyer as to how to avoid these actual life-impacting issues which were literally designed to hurt “fatcats and fatcats alone”, and is told the only pathway is to renounce U.S. citizenship.
“Simple solution: we mandate that our legislation has no second-order consequences that we don’t want!” is an unfortunately popular point of view on this.

(CS fans may note that this requires a solution to the halting problem.)
“Still worried about Mohammed, Patrick.”

So one of the many pathways by which this happens: the Bank Secrets Act obligates financial institutions to file a Suspicious Activity Report (SAR) for any of a long list of predicates, including a generic “Something looks fishy.”
Read 16 tweets
20 Sep
Unfortunately the way this is usually implemented is “X stamps and we fire you as a customer.”

In much of the world, banks are not obligated to continue doing business with people who cause them lots of headaches or cost, and the headaches/cost are not evenly distributed.
This is one hidden cost of certain types of financial regulation, by the way. Society is broadly speaking extremely positive on financial inclusion and does not pass laws which explicitly say “Americans can’t get bank accounts” or “People named Mohammed have X% chance of closure”
But society nonetheless passes laws that have those effects.

(And then it frequently does the “Why, why, why banks did you do the extremely-predictable-and-predicted thing that you said our legislation was going to force you to do when we asked you for comment on it.” thing.)
Read 23 tweets
16 Sep
As you might imagine, I’ve had some thoughts about this from time to time.
One reason for this dynamic is payoff asymmetry: you can fairly easily point to who benefits if crypto achieves the dreams of its boosters, and the mechanisms by which they benefit.

Can you sketch out who benefits and mechanically now for skeptics?
*how

Some people I respect have said, effectively, “You’re staking an awful lot of career capital on loud crypto skepticism. In a future where you are unambiguously right, what do you get out of it besides HN karma?”

(Catastrophic failure to understand my utility function.)
Read 5 tweets
16 Sep
I wonder how much entrepreneurial energy will be unlocked once society solves the Here Be Freaking Dragons written on the map under “sales taxes.”

One step closer:
Under the hood this is doing intelligent location of the customer and running your product against a curated DB of the (truly, truly complex) tax jurisdictions and rates by product category state-of-play.
The thing it does not solve is making it truly end-to-end, where in addition to knowing how much money Chicago would charge for a hotdog if it was cooked on the premises for consumption off, at some point Chicago will want some data and some money.
Read 4 tweets

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