Why is this important? The Senate presiding offer—which VP Harris can become whenever she wants to—has the power to rule in opposition to the parliamentarian and it’d take 60 votes to block the VP. In this case that’s 10 Democrats saying no, immigration should not be included.
Now, to do that would be to effectively go nuclear. If there’s no nonpartisan referee on Byrd rule limits it needn’t exist—the party in power can do whatever it wants by simple majority vote in reconciliation.

Biden-Harris could force that issue but there’s no sign they want to.
And this is where Biden’s complicated history comes into play. He’s a creature of the Senate over 36 years and prides himself on being an institutionalist. Yet that 60-vote rule is claiming scalp after scalp in his agenda and looms over his presidential legacy.

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More from @sahilkapur

15 Sep
New —> Debt limit standoff intensifies as McConnell says Republicans oppose raising it

"Mitch McConnell is as serious as four heart attacks and a stroke," says one Republican senator. "And I don't think he's going to budge." nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
It's time to take the debt ceiling fight seriously.

nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
The White House expects Republicans to blink on the debt limit. A WH official says @POTUS doesn't believe it should be subject to negotiation, period. He's taking the same position as second-term Obama—no discussion, just raise it—when the GOP did cave. nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
Read 4 tweets
9 Sep
Biden on Covid vaccine resisters: “A distinct minority of Americans, supported by a distinct minority of elected officials, are keeping us from turning the corner. These pandemic politics, as I refer to it, are making people sick, causing unvaccinated people to die.” Image
President Biden previewing his vaccine mandates: "This is not about freedom or personal choice. It's about protecting yourself and those around you. People you work with. People you care about. People you love. My job as president is to protect all Americans."
Biden on vaccine mandates: "Some of the biggest companies are already requiring this ... even Fox News."
Read 4 tweets
8 Sep
NEW: Treasury says the U.S. debt limit fully expires in October and needs action to be lifted.

For weeks @LeaderMcConnell has insisted Democrats raise it on their own in the multi-trillion-dollar bill.

Today @SpeakerPelosi said that's not gonna happen.

nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
Debt limit standoffs have become a Capitol Hill tradition under Democratic presidencies. The issue tends to get resolved with little drama when Republicans hold the White House. Partisan asymmetry. nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
Democrats are considering attaching a debt limit extension to the government funding bill ahead of a 9/30 deadline. @SpeakerPelosi tells me they're weighing "several options." Either way, this will require at least 10 GOP senators to break a filibuster.

nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
Read 4 tweets
31 Aug
President Biden says Trump’s deal with the Taliban for a US exit gave him two choices: withdraw or add thousands more troops to fight the Taliban.

“That was the choice—the real choice: between leaving and escalating.”
Biden, defending his Afghanistan withdrawal timeline, says he wasn’t going to prolong a “forever war” or compound it with a “forever exit.”
“I take responsibility for the decision,” Biden says. To those who argue this could’ve been done in a more orderly fashion, he says: “I respectfully disagree.” He says there’s no way to end a war like this smoothly.
Read 10 tweets
30 Aug
A very fair question!

No doubt 2020 polling was sharply skewed toward Dems and pollsters don't have great explanations why. But was it a unique moment or new normal?

2018 polling was pretty accurate; in fact it *understated* Dem support a bit per RCP avg realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2…
Pollsters have theories for big '20 miss. Did D responses soar during WFH? Did Trump's attacks on polls make his voters ignore 'em? Was there a "hidden" DJT vote of ppl who wouldn't admit? All of the above? Problem is it's hard to isolate variables in rare Covid lockdown context.
So the skepticism of polling is warranted, but the caveats to 2020 are notable: 2021-'22 cycle is a different context. The lockdowns are no more and a key wildcard named Trump is not on the ballot. Last time both those were true—2018—polls were accurate. cnn.com/2018/11/19/pol…
Read 4 tweets
30 Aug
New: Biden's agenda confronts shifting House Democratic power dynamics

Progressive wing is ascendant in the caucus, a shift from ‘09/2010 when Blue Dogs called the plays.

Growing distrust between progressive-centrist factions, which broke open last week. nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
“We have a strong progressive majority within the Democratic caucus. It's not progressives who are on the outskirts howling in the wind. It is conservatives who are trying, one way or another, to find their way back into the conversation,” says @RepRaskin. nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
What's behind these power shifts from '09 v 2021?

1. Dem voters increasingly self-identify as liberal, fewer identify as moderate/conservative

2. Ds are extinct in rural, culturally conservative areas; new majority relies on suburban, well-educated areas nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
Read 5 tweets

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