🧵On timing of Biden admin decision to allow vaccinated travelers in from November, a non-admin foreign policy expert says:
“Pretty sure this wouldn’t have happened we’re it not for the crisis with France. All the signals I got up to late last week were no imminent change.” 1/
“They had to do something to try to change the dynamic with Europe,” the expert in touch with admin said. “Words don’t matter and are even counterproductive— they had to act and this was low hanging fruit.” 2/
*were
“For Europeans, it’s not that their US counterparts were malevolent. It’s that they seemed powerless and were losing all the internal arguments.”

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More from @lrozen

20 Sep
🧵My understanding is that Iran will have a series of parallel bilats with the P4+1 in NY, but that a joint P4+1 Iran or P5+1 Iran meeting is not expected. Blinken also due to meet with his E3 counterparts.
Separately, and more interesting
Understand P5+1 come up with a joint position they want to resume the talks with Iran where they left off after the sixth round. Don’t want Iran to say starting from scratch or here is a new text.
As Russia envoy to IAEA said yesterday, “The most important thing for success of the #ViennaTalks is to ensure continuity of the process. The negotiations should resume not from scratch but from the point reached by June 20.”

Read 5 tweets
18 Sep
🧵this quote needs to be unpacked.
“It says a lot about how Washington discerns its interests in the Pacific..that there was no hand-wringing about angering the French.”
no handwringing by blinken? really?
maybe no handwringing by k. campbell.
seems some handwringing now
different policy experts have different foci. what seems broken about the inter agency process here is the people in the Biden administration who know and care about the transatlantic alliance did not get brought into it until too late diplomatic.substack.com/p/france-recal…
Also, does this line pass the laugh test? Come on.

“They told us they would take care of dealing with the French,” one senior U.S. official said.
Read 4 tweets
17 Sep
New from me: White House and State Department said they understand the French position and place highest value on US France relationship, will try to resolve differences in the coming days, after France recalls ambassador diplomatic.substack.com/p/france-recal…
“We should have talked to the French earlier,” one U.S. official said. “The Europe crowd got involved very late…and it shows.”
diplomatic.substack.com/p/france-recal…
“It indicates a clear sense on the part of the people who put this together that they had somehow lost sight of the President’s clear interest in rebuilding the alliance relationships & doing it in a very strong way,” ex US envoy to India Tom Pickering diplomatic.substack.com/p/france-recal…
Read 6 tweets
17 Sep
The French embassy confirms that France has recalled its ambassador to the US, over being left in the dark on the US/UK/Australia deal.
French foreign minister statement diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/country-fil…
Puts something of a damper on Biden admin going into UNGA week next week, although a fairly scaled back set of UNGA in-person encounters this year
Read 7 tweets
16 Sep
Blinken at US/Australia 2+2 addressing French fury: There is no regional divide separating interests of our Atlantic and Pacific partners...We welcome European countries playing an important role in Indo pacific...France in part. is a vital partner on this & so many other issues
Australian Defense Minister says they signed a classified statement of intent on strategic capabilities,
Blinken seems to confirm France was given very little heads up: In touch w French counterparts in past 24-48 hours, to discuss (Australia initiative).
Will leave to Australian colleagues to discuss why the Australians sought this technology
Read 5 tweets
16 Sep
🧵French FM & DM on being excluded on US/UK/Australia deal and having sub deal replaced: “The American choice to exclude a European ally and partner such as France from a structuring partnership with Australia, at a time when we are facing unprecedented challenges Image
“in the Indo-Pacific region, whether in terms of our values or in terms of respect for multilateralism based on the rule of law, shows a lack of coherence that France can only note and regret.” Image
“As the only European nation present in the Indo-Pacific with nearly 2MN citizens & more than 7,000 military personnel, France is a reliable partner that will continue to fulfill its commitments, as it has always done….
Read 8 tweets

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