X : How bad are the supply chain risks in the UK?
Me : This is a global problem which many of us have banged on about for years and years. Most Gov's and Organisations don't understand supply chains beyond one up, one down ...
... it's not just a covid thing or a brext thing ... this has been a long term problem for any form of industrial strategy or attempts to mitigate climate impacts. The work hasn't been done and in the few place where we have thousands of supply chains graphed, few are mapped ...
... and it's not enough to know what connect to what (the graph), you need to understand the context i.e. how evolved the components are (the map). Basically, the executive have been asleep at the wheel of the golf buggy. It's a shocking state ...
... quite some time ago (many many years), the question was asked of the Dept of Biz what the 100 most important supply chains were in the UK. No answer then, I doubt they know now. It's with this sort of situational awareness (i.e. none) that the brexit deal was negotiated.
There have been some stirling efforts in some UK departments though ... FSA has been really good at trying to get a handle on parts of the food supply chains.
X : Was brexit wrong?
Me : Oh, you misunderstand me. There was little to no understanding of supply chains long before brexit. If brexit (plus covid) forces us to get a handle on our supply chains before climate change really hits then that will be an enormous benefit ...
Me : ... I make no bones about the fact that we have been blindly running towards a climate catastrophe with no understanding of any of our supply chains. You think the problems today are bad, we were totally unprepared for the future. This might wake us up a bit.
X : GDS?
Me : Spend control, part of GDS, was about challenging but also building awareness of our software supply chain. This is not a "Gov" or "Tech" problem though. If you dig into corporates you'll find huge levels of waste with little to no understanding of supply chains.
X : So how bad is the problem?
Me : No-one knows. There's almost no visibility. Even basic things like energy supply are often on a knife's edge because it is simply left to "the market" in the West. China is in a much better position but then they care about this stuff.
X : Why does no-one care?
Me : I'll go back to the original tweet -
- "It's just not sexy". Every exec / "leader" wants to talk innovation or disruption or ... anything other than supply chain risks. It has been like this for years and years.
X : It probably won't change because everyone wants to get "back to normal".
Me : If we don't use this "opportunity" to focus on supply chains that brexit and covid has given us then we are absolutely up shit creek without a paddle when it comes to climate change.
X : Why do you think China is better?
Me : Long list but you don't go building strategic reserves of water eroded sand (sic "islands") with military bases on top without thinking about these issues -
X : I can't see that article.
Me : It's from 2016, it's talking about a problem that has been known for over a decade and there has been little action on. A more upto date version - cnbc.com/2021/03/05/san… ... just go search "water eroded sand".
X : Gas?
Me : My old mentor back in the early 1990s was Prof Cleyland McVeigh - Energy around the World - amazon.co.uk/Energy-Around-… ... don't get me started on energy supply chains.
X : Did you work in the environmental field?
Me : In the 1990s .. from chemical analysis to risk assement to policy ... my 2nd masters is in the field.
X : You left?
Me : Economic inaction from the market plus threats from environmentalists over my support of nuclear.
Me : I just got to the point that for my own sanity that I needed to leave the field. That's why I so admire groups like XR ... finally, people really trying to change things and what do they get ... abuse, labelled, patronised etc.
X : How bad is the sand problem.
Me : Water eroded? Not good. Unfortunately since we don't understand our supply chains then it's difficult to say how bad it will become. It's even used in toothpaste.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
In the UK, there has been little to no understanding of our supply chains. In such an environment, when you discover critical national infrastructure in the hands of a few that has been switched off for commercial reasons ... you nationalise it. This is the wrong move ->
X : Why nationalise?
Me : You've just identified a hostage to fortune and signalled your willingness to pay. You might as well just give the company a blank cheque signed UK Gov.
Now, every single company out there will be trying to work out whether it's part of undiscovered critical national infrastructure and therefore inline for a bumper payout. This action is so wrong on so many levels.
I normally take the piss out of Gartner with their "dressed up as science" MQ, HypeCycle and Bimodal nonsense ... but this, is not bad. Much better, a definite improvement. I might even say that I like it ->
It's a fairly decent way of presenting aggregated perceived deplyment risk, perceived future value and anticipated adoption timeframe. Of course, it's highly subjective but it doesn't hide that. I like that. Well done @Gartner_inc
X : Do you know they use AI and text analysis to ...
Me : ... I thought it was clear that this was aggregated opinion and perception on the future. I do hope they're not going to start claiming it has some basis in science. That would be disappointing.
X : Do you think China will ever invade Taiwan?
Me : Doesn't need to.
X : Eh?
Me : China has been tackling poverty, it is moving onto tackling inequality. As China becomes seen as a growing economic, technological, environmental and social success (a more equal society) then ...
Me : ... it doesn't need to do anything. Others will eventually want to adopt its models. The art of war is not kinetic warfare but to convert everyone to your behaviours and beliefs.
X : But what about ...
Me : ... think about the direction of travel.
X : Will Aukus pact play a role?
Me : I would imagine China is bemused by the internal strife in Europe over business deals and frustrated by cotinuing provocation. Theresa May has this squarely nailed - theguardian.com/politics/2021/… ... it's a pity that Theresa isn't still PM.
X : Thoughts on the Conservative 10 point plan for the Environment.
Me : It's a lie.
X : Have you read them?
Me : I don't need to. It's a lie. How many trees are they promising this time?
X : 30,000 hectares of trees every year.
Me : Pull the other, it has bells on.
X : Do you not believe what the Gov says?
Me : This Government? Nope. I have close to zero trust in their statements unless there is an obvious back hander or get rich quick scheme for donors at the expense of the taxpayer. I don't believe there is any integrity.
X : Isn't that because you vote Labour?
Me : Nope. I've worked with Conservatives before (2010-2014) under Cameron. I might have disagreed with their policy but there was integrity and honesty in intentions. I do not see that today.
X : What is the future of cloud?
Me : The future is more conversational programming and industrialisation further up the stack. Today is all about severless and FinOps with concepts like capital flow. Yesterday was all about IaaS and DevOps. Why?
X : What about hybrid?
Me : Lol.
X : Hybrid has a place!
Me : Hmmm ... as a transitional step based upon a realisation that your executive is unable to do what is necessary and you need to at least be on the boat even if it's in the hold as a stowaway living on scraps that you find.
X : Enterprise require a ...
Me : Oh, don't give me that we're special nonsense. This year (2021) is probably when AWS overtakes IBM in annual revenue. Five years from now, it'll be so far ahead, probably about 5x. The days of special pleading are long gone.
X : Have you seen the new Matrix trailer?
Me : Yep, looks fun. The entire series is pretty good.
X : You mean great?
Me : I like the Matrix but I don't buy the machines enslave humans angle. It's more likely to be humans enslave humans. I quite liked the 13th floor.
X : That was humans enslave humans?
Me : Hmmm ... not quite but it is worth watching. Dark City was pretty good as well but a real fantasy type thing. Quite fun.
X : What is you favourite science fiction film?
Me : Well, my favourite TV series is Firefly. As for film ... tough one ... it has to be Elysium just on the basis of how likely it is to predict the future. It's a true masterpiece.